BYU hoops for 2012-2013

[Indy Coug]

I think you are over-rating this year's team. They weren't especially good (they would have been better without the injuries, but that's not what happend. Davies should be able to lead next year's team to 3rd place in the WCC without any difficulty--win one out of 5 vs Saint Mary's and Gonzaga and only lose once to the rest of the bad teams in the conference. Hawes will adequately replace Abuou and probably more than adequately because of his offensive consistency. Carlino will improve at least a little. Austin will improve at least a little. Assuming we see an effecting Davies for a full year, next year's team will be just as good as this year's team even with only those minor improvements I've mentioned.

How exactly did I overrate this year's team? I don't believe I quantified how good or bad this year's team was. I merely used this year's team as a relative benchmark for next year's team's performance.

Given the collective youth and especially given the injuries, this year's team overperformed.

[Goatnapper'96]

I think you are over-rating this year's team. They weren't especially good (they would have been better without the injuries, but that's not what happend. Davies should be able to lead next year's team to 3rd place in the WCC without any difficulty--win one out of 5 vs Saint Mary's and Gonzaga and only lose once to the rest of the bad teams in the conference. Hawes will adequately replace Abuou and probably more than adequately because of his offensive consistency. Carlino will improve at least a little. Austin will improve at least a little. Assuming we see an effecting Davies for a full year, next year's team will be just as good as this year's team even with only those minor improvements I've mentioned.

I agree with this. Rose did a spectacular job with BYU this year given its injuries and lack of experience, however my bar for next year's team is higher than this past year. I think a good year for BYU would be a year that qualifies them for an 8 or 9 seed. I think improved health and the improvement that comes with natural progression from freshman to sophmore for Carlino, Winder and Austin alone will make BYU a better team next year than this past year, but I doubt that will take them to being good enough to earn an 8 or 9 seed in the NCAA. That will require more, but I still believe it will happen.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

There's a gigantic range of what BYU might accomplish next year. IF

• Carlino develops into a consistent offensive threat and learns to take care of the ball
• Haws comes back not looking like a recently returned missionary
• Rogers comes back 100%
• Delgado can make the transition to D-1
• Collinsworth can rebound from multiple microfracture surgeries to be anywhere near the type of player he could have otherwise been
• Austin continues to develop as an effective scorer and rebounder
• Harward is the solid bench option that Austin was this year
• Winder becomes a much more consistent shooter

Then BYU might be as good or better than this year. However, my guess is that at least half of the items above won't happen.

One of the bigger variables not listed is the kind of jump Davies makes as a senior. It won't be Noah-esque, because Hartsock was going from a supporting role to team MVP, whereas Davies already had a major role on last year's team. But he'll benefit as much as anyone from Carlino's expected improvement, and hopefully Davies won't come out of the gates as slowly as he has the past couple of years.

Last year Davies scored in single digits 5 times in the first 12 games. He did it once the rest of the way. Remember that the year before he was in Rose's dog house early, and in the first 5 games had scoring outputs of 2, 0, and 4. The team will need him to be focused and prepared right out of the gate next year.

He had a nice all-around line this year: 15 ppg, 7 rpg, 2 apg, 1.3 bpg, 1.5 spg. And his FT shooting had been solid before really tanking the last handful of games.

[Indy Coug]

One of the bigger variables not listed is the kind of jump Davies makes as a senior. It won't be Noah-esque, because Hartsock was going from a supporting role to team MVP, whereas Davies already had a major role on last year's team. But he'll benefit as much as anyone from Carlino's expected improvement, and hopefully Davies won't come out of the gates as slowly as he has the past couple of years.

Last year Davies scored in single digits 5 times in the first 12 games. He did it once the rest of the way. Remember that the year before he was in Rose's dog house early, and in the first 5 games had scoring outputs of 2, 0, and 4. The team will need him to be focused and prepared right out of the gate next year.

He had a nice all-around line this year: 15 ppg, 7 rpg, 2 apg, 1.3 bpg, 1.5 spg. And his FT shooting had been solid before really tanking the last handful of games.

I think Davies' progression is more of a given than the other items I listed.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

I think Davies' progression is more of a given than the other items I listed.

Could be. Just a matter of degrees, I guess. I do think Davies will be improved as a senior. But I also think that what we saw from Carlino and Austin as freshmen (and Austin as a recently returned missionary) paints them as being pretty talented players who are likely to take big steps forward next year. I like that they both appear to love playing and love competing.

[oxcoug]

There's a gigantic range of what BYU might accomplish next year. IF

• Carlino develops into a consistent offensive threat and learns to take care of the ball
• Haws comes back not looking like a recently returned missionary
• Rogers comes back 100%
• Delgado can make the transition to D-1
• Collinsworth can rebound from multiple microfracture surgeries to be anywhere near the type of player he could have otherwise been
• Austin continues to develop as an effective scorer and rebounder
• Harward is the solid bench option that Austin was this year
• Winder becomes a much more consistent shooter

Then BYU might be as good or better than this year. However, my guess is that at least half of the items above won't happen.

Agreed on the huge range - there are eight variables you've identified if all or most of them lean favorable I wldn't be shocked to see a team that cld make clear the first round of the tourney again, maybe even sneak into the Sweet 16. Of all of the variables seems the most critical general one is this: Will BYU redevelop its reputation as a credible perimeter shooting team? If they do it seems like the Davies-Austin-Collinsworth (knock on wood) trio can do damage all year inside.

But if most of those variables go negative it's equally possible that we'll struggle to make the tournament and end up in the NIT.

[Jacob]

How exactly did I overrate this year's team? I don't believe I quantified how good or bad this year's team was. I merely used this year's team as a relative benchmark for next year's team's performance.

Given the collective youth and especially given the injuries, this year's team overperformed.

You compared the 2 and made is sound like it would be difficult for next year's team to be as good. I disagreed and said that it won't be difficult for next year's team to be as good.

If you prefer that I say you are under-rating next year's team's potential, fine. But I have no great hopes for next years team. So, all I'm saying is that if you think it is going to take most or all your bullet points to be as good as this years team, then I think you are over rating this year's team.

[oxcoug]

I like when Jacob and Indy start firing at each other bc they have similar styles. They both tend to sound slightly annoyed but also resigned to the other's presumed wrongheadedness

Fight on, you two.

[Indy Coug]

I like when Jacob and Indy start firing at each other bc they have similar styles. They both tend to sound slightly annoyed but also resigned to the other's presumed wrongheadedness

Fight on, you two.

I just love when people strain to read more into what I'm saying than what I really am. I attempted to clarify for the record and since Jacob seems intent on ignoring it, I'm really not interested in pursuing what is a very uninteresting point to quibble about.

If Jacob would like to counter my point that BYU overperformed last year, I'm willing to entertain that debate for a short while.

[Jacob]

I just love when people strain to read more into what I'm saying than what I really am. I attempted to clarify for the record and since Jacob seems intent on ignoring it, I'm really not interested in pursuing what is a very uninteresting point to quibble about.

If Jacob would like to counter my point that BYU overperformed last year, I'm willing to entertain that debate for a short while.

I have no reason to counter your point about BYU over performing. I have no reason to disagree. I don't understand where that is coming from.

I've made my point about you either under-estimating next year's team or over-estimating this year's team--which ever you prefer. I think next year's team will likely be as good, even if they don't accomplish every one of your bullet points. Let's move on.

[EuropeanFootballMale]

Martineau leaving team

http://m.heraldextra.com/mobile-touc...9-0019bb2963f4

[Hsaru]

Martineau leaving team

http://m.heraldextra.com/mobile-touc...9-0019bb2963f4

Good on him.

[Jennerstein]

He seems a little sore about it too.

http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/blogsby...coach.html.csp

Don't understand why he is surprised. We all read between the lines last year when it was announced that Big Game James would no longer pursue basketball.

[Guest]

I have no idea why Martineau is so upset. The dude was not D-1 material and should be grateful he had a scholly the last couple of years. This kid has to be in la la land to think any program will want him to play next year. How could he feel shocked that his scholly wasn't renewed? But then again, he thought he was better than Jimmer too.

[CardiacCoug]

He seems a little sore about it too.

http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/blogsby...coach.html.csp

Don't understand why he is surprised. We all read between the lines last year when it was announced that Big Game James would no longer pursue basketball.

I like Rose. You have to do what's best for the team and he gets that. Bronco would be rewarding Martineau with 6th man minutes this coming season.

Who could feel sorry for Martineau? He came as a walk-on and got to be on the team for 3 years and graduate and 2 of those years he had a scholarship.