The Official 12 Pac basketball thread

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

This sounds like an internet tough guy post. "Put your money where your mouth is!"

Maybe the Pac does get 3 in but they don't deserve it.

Too bad wuap killed the Cuffies. You calling someone else an internet tough guy would be a run away winner in the ironic post of the year. Maybe even a lifetime achievement award.

Since when does "deserve" have anything to do with anything in college sports? That sounds like a classic internet whiner post. "It just isn't right!"

[Surfah]

Pac will get 3 in based on tradition only. Count on it.

I agree. And like Junkie said, I don't think the Pac-12 merits a 3rd team. Additionally, I feel the same about BYU and the WCC unless BYU wins at Gonzaga and then makes it to at least the WCC championship game.

[MartyFunkhouser]

The Pac-12 is now up to 7th in conference Sagarin rating. The WCC is holding steady at 11th.

There are now 8 Pac-12 teams in the top 100 of Sagarin. I'm starting to believe the Pac-12 is deserving of 3 teams in the dance. It is certainly more deserving of 3 teams than the WCC.

[MartyFunkhouser]

I agree. And like Junkie said, I don't think the Pac-12 merits a 3rd team. Additionally, I feel the same about BYU and the WCC unless BYU wins at Gonzaga and then makes it to at least the WCC championship game.

If that is the case, the WCC only deserves 2 teams in the dance. St Mary's shouldn't be a lock and should have to win the conference tournament to get in.

[smokymountainrain]

The Pac-12 is now up to 7th in conference Sagarin rating. The WCC is holding steady at 11th.

There are now 8 Pac-12 teams in the top 100 of Sagarin. I'm starting to believe the Pac-12 is deserving of 3 teams in the dance. It is certainly more deserving of 3 teams than the WCC.

I don't get these ratings. The PAC was down in the Sagarin until conference play. They get into conference play - only playing against other PAC POS teams - and the Sagarin starts to move up. How does that happen? What am I missing?

[Eddie]

I don't get these ratings. The PAC was down in the Sagarin until conference play. They get into conference play - only playing against other PAC POS teams - and the Sagarin starts to move up. How does that happen? What am I missing?

My thoughts exactly. And I just lost a lot of respect for the Sagarin ratings.

Seriously - suddenly the conference ratings climb because the conference teams who couldn't beat anyone out of conference are now beating other crappy conference teams that couldn't beat anyone out of conference either? How is that even possible???

[Donuthole]

I don't get these ratings. The PAC was down in the Sagarin until conference play. They get into conference play - only playing against other PAC POS teams - and the Sagarin starts to move up. How does that happen? What am I missing?

My thoughts exactly. And I just lost a lot of respect for the Sagarin ratings.

Seriously - suddenly the conference ratings climb because the conference teams who couldn't beat anyone out of conference are now beating other crappy conference teams that couldn't beat anyone out of conference either? How is that even possible???

Sagarin isn't just about who you win or lose against. It's also about who wins or loses against who you win or lose against. In other words, all of the PAC-12's OOC opponents have continued to play games.

[il Padrino Ute]

I don't get these ratings. The PAC was down in the Sagarin until conference play. They get into conference play - only playing against other PAC POS teams - and the Sagarin starts to move up. How does that happen? What am I missing?

It's called the BCSification of college basketball. It wasn't enough that the BCS had to ruin college football, but it has contaminated hoops as well.

[Surfah]

The Pac-12 is now up to 7th in conference Sagarin rating. The WCC is holding steady at 11th.

There are now 8 Pac-12 teams in the top 100 of Sagarin. I'm starting to believe the Pac-12 is deserving of 3 teams in the dance. It is certainly more deserving of 3 teams than the WCC.

You're such a Pac-12 honk. That conference sucks and that's not even considering what the Utes offer it.

The Pac-12 has been much maligned this season, and deservedly so. Since 2003, only once before has a BCS league finished outside the top six in average team Pomeroy rating -- the 2004 Pac-10 -- and there's an argument to be made that the 2012 Pac-12 is worse than that group of teams (its average team rating ranks lower). This season, the Pac-12 rates eighth in the Kenpom conference rankings, trailing the Mountain West and Atlantic 10 in addition to the other five high-major leagues.

This is how the league breaks down: There is one definite tournament team, the California Golden Bears, whose best win (according to RPI) is at the No. 55 Oregon Ducks. Oregon, the Washington Huskies and Arizona Wildcats are all on the bubble. The Stanford Cardinal, Colorado Buffaloes and UCLA Bruins could probably fight their way onto the bubble with exceptional finishes, but after them it really gets ugly.

The bubble

Bubble teams sorted by average of BPI and RPI. Teams in italics are outside of projected bracket, per Joe Lunardi.
The tournament profiles of the Washington State Cougars and Oregon State Beavers are awful, and those of the Arizona State Sun Devils and USC Trojans are really awful. The Utah Utes are historically awful.

The league's best three nonconference wins, by RPI: Stanford at home against No. 29 Colorado State; Stanford at home against No. 55 North Carolina State; and Arizona at No. 67 New Mexico State. Yes, this is true.

Once conference play began, the only true quality wins to be had in the conference were against Cal, and even those could hardly be referred to as impressive -- Cal's best nonconference win was versus Weber State at home, even if its only losses came against Missouri on a neutral court and on the road against UNLV and San Diego State.

For those reasons, the Pac-12 is an extraordinarily tough league to judge since nearly all of the teams' best performances came against each other. And it's tempting to both give those performances more credit ("fulfillment of potential") or less credit ("the nonconference season taught us that those wins were meaningless") than they probably deserve.

Regardless, the Pac-12 is a league looking at multiple bids, like all seven conferences ranked above it and the three (Missouri Valley, C-USA barring a Memphis collapse, West Coast) below it. Currently, Joe Lunardi has Washington and Arizona joining the Golden Bears in the Big Dance, with Oregon and the eight stragglers missing out. Let's take a quick look the Huskies, Wildcats and Ducks in more detail.

• Washington entered league play at a disappointing 6-5, but it's a 6-5 that looks exponentially more understandable in retrospect. Close neutral-court losses to Duke and Marquette were understandable (if not downright impressive) at the time. But Saint Louis has gone from intriguing mid-major, capable of finishing third in the Atlantic 10, to automatic NCAA tournament team ranked No. 11 by Ken Pomeroy and No. 22 in ESPN's BPI (explained here). A road loss to the Billikens is no embarrassment. A home loss by 20 to South Dakota State is still pretty ugly, but the Jackrabbits are 22-7 and serious contenders in a Summit League that's better than usual. And a road loss to Nevada sounded a lot worse when the Wolf Pack were sitting at 5-3 than it does now that they're 22-5.

Washington is now 12-3 in the conference, having taken care of all the truly bad league teams. It also played Cal to the wire and has beaten Arizona twice. If the Huskies want to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday, they should win their final three regular-season games, but if they win two of three and take a game in the Pac-12 tournament, the Huskies should sneak in. And don't tell anyone, but they'd be taking three former top-30 recruits into that first-round NCAA matchup against a single-digit seed.

• Arizona is in a similar situation. Those two early-season losses to Mississippi State and San Diego State don't sound so bad anymore, do they? After that, their only losses came against Florida (on the road), Gonzaga (in Seattle) and league foes. They even won at Cal.

Their high BPI (No. 32) suggests the Wildcats are good enough to hang with most of the teams they'd run into in the NCAAs, and their relatively easy remaining schedule means that they should be able to avoid some of the résumé-tainting losses their bubble rivals will have trouble avoiding. With three wins to end the regular season and one to start the conference tournament, Arizona is probably in as well.

• BPI says that Oregon (No. 67) might be in more trouble. But the worrisome early losses for the Ducks look less worrisome, too: A loss to Festus Ezeli-less Vanderbilt was mostly understood at the time, but it also turned out that BYU and Virginia are much better than expected this season. Not to mention the Ducks made due without Devoe Joseph (16.3 ppg) in those losses to BYU and Vandy. The Ducks' remaining games are at Oregon State and at home against Colorado and Utah -- all winnable matchups.

The Pac-12 will get two or three teams into the NCAA tournament outside of Cal. If one of these three bubble teams falters in an easy game down the stretch, it will be in deep trouble. Conversely, if somebody makes a deep conference tournament run, it will be in good shape. It's then that we'll find out for sure how good or bad the 2012 Pac-12 really is.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-coll...zona-stand-ncb

[smokymountainrain]

Sagarin isn't just about who you win or lose against. It's also about who wins or loses against who you win or lose against. In other words, all of the PAC-12's OOC opponents have continued to play games.

Seems fairly unreliable, but that answers my question and it seems to be the best we have. thanks.

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

Colorado closes out their chances by losing at home to Stanford.

[Top Ute]

I think the Pac-12 is a lock for three teams, and that's saying something given where the league was after the first week of conference play.

Oregon seals it by beating Utah tonight. It's worst two losses (MOV) are to teams that are locks -- Cal and Washington. It's next two-worst losses (Vanderbilt, BYU) are to teams the Ducks played without Devoe Joseph, who Carlino'ed to Eugene from Minnesota.

Even by losing to UCLA, Washington is 14-4 in the Pac-12. If that isn't good enough for an at-large, I'll petition for Utah to go back to the MWC for hoops.

Cal played the second-toughest non-con schedule, behind Washington, and like the Huskies, could finish 14-4 (it must beat Stanford tomorrow). Like Washington, it has zero bad losses in conference play (sub-100 RPI).

I don't know what to think about Arizona. Its resume is worse than Oregon's, and Bracketology has 'Zona in, Oregon out, which I'm having a hard time grasping. Oregon beat Arizona at McKale -- 'Zona didn't play in Eugene -- and the Ducks' SOS and RPI is about 20 points higher.

What is it about Arizona that screams it should be in? I'm not finding it, and it's there where I draw the line on Pac-12 invites. But 'Zona's resume is good enough that it can play its way to an at-large. Making it to the Pac-12 final would move the Wildcats to the right side of the bubble.

[SeattleUte]

I think the Pac-12 is a lock for three teams, and that's saying something given where the league was after the first week of conference play.

Oregon seals it by beating Utah tonight. It's worst two losses (MOV) are to teams that are locks -- Cal and Washington. It's next two-worst losses (Vanderbilt, BYU) are to teams the Ducks played without Devoe Joseph, who Carlino'ed to Eugene from Minnesota.

Even by losing to UCLA, Washington is 14-4 in the Pac-12. If that isn't good enough for an at-large, I'll petition for Utah to go back to the MWC for hoops.

Cal played the second-toughest non-con schedule, behind Washington, and like the Huskies, could finish 14-4 (it must beat Stanford tomorrow). Like Washington, it has zero bad losses in conference play (sub-100 RPI).

I don't know what to think about Arizona. Its resume is worse than Oregon's, and Bracketology has 'Zona in, Oregon out, which I'm having a hard time grasping. Oregon beat Arizona at McKale -- 'Zona didn't play in Eugene -- and the Ducks' SOS and RPI is about 20 points higher.

What is it about Arizona that screams it should be in? I'm not finding it, and it's there where I draw the line on Pac-12 invites. But 'Zona's resume is good enough that it can play its way to an at-large. Making it to the Pac-12 final would move the Wildcats to the right side of the bubble.

UCLA will win the Pac 12 tourney and then go deep in the NCAA tournament. You heard it here first. Partly because of this the Pac will get 4 maybe 5 teams in.

[CJF]

UCLA will win the Pac 12 tourney and then go deep in the NCAA tournament. You heard it here first. Partly because of this the Pac will get 4 maybe 5 teams in.

[Top Ute]

It wouldn't be the first time an underachieving team got hot at the right time. And the Bruins are coming off a win against Washington. And for the Pac-12 to get five teams, Arizona must make the final, and it and UCLA can only meet in the final. Stranger things have happened.