BYU Basketball 24-25-Bring out the Jelly!

[PaloAltoCougar]

I was 11 in 1981 and had little opportunity to watch that team and so I often wonder if recency bias is the cause of people leaving out Ainge's Elite Eight squad when statements like this are made. When I hear this from people who actually saw all these teams it means a lot more. In my fandom, the 1987 team with Mike Smith and Jeff Chatman was the deepest squad I can remember watching until Jimmer's team came along and it felt like a new standard had been set, though I do wonder if the 87 team was better on paper?

It doesn't mean much (other than that I'm older than dirt) but I was 28 during the great Ainge run. The starting five, esp. with Ainge, was arguably better than this year's, but other than Timo Saareleinen and Greg Balliff I can't remember any ot the others, iIt wold be interesting to see the minutes played and points scored by the benches of the `'81 and '87 teams but i'd bet this year's edition would have the highest in both categories. I'd also expect most metrics to show this year's team has improved more from start-to-finish than the others. Regardless, this has been a lot of fun and one of the best years ever for BYU sports.

And praises be for NIL and our uber-wealthy fans. The institution alone was never going to produce this kind of product.

[BlueK]

Man, Pope's team just very nearly choked one away. Two TOs in the last 30 seconds. Yikes. Oklahoma takes a 1 point lead because of it with 5.6 seconds left in a game where Kentucky was in firm control. But Kentucky finds a way to score and they win.

[BigPiney]

Man, Pope's team just very nearly choked one away. Two TOs in the last 30 seconds. Yikes. Oklahoma takes a 1 point lead because of it with 5.6 seconds left in a game where Kentucky was in firm control. But Kentucky finds a way to score and they win.

that was an exciting finish. I couldn't help but laugh when kentucky was running that stupid football inbounds play.

[Donuthole]

Welp. Hope this doesn’t knock us down to a 7 seed.

[beefytee]

I’m guessing we were a 7 seed prior to this.
I don’t think this drops us though.
one game against the #2 team isn’t going to change things much.

[beefytee]

Disappointing. Not seeing any progress since the last time we played Houston. Hopefully we don’t run into similar teams in the dance.

[Omaha 680]

I’m guessing we were a 7 seed prior to this.
I don’t think this drops us though.
one game against the #2 team isn’t going to change things much.

We were probably a 5 before this. I don't think this game drops us but if it did I think our floor is a 6.

[beefytee]

We were probably a 5 before this. I don't think this game drops us but if it did I think our floor is a 6.

Everyone was saying 5, borderline 4 seed last year before we ended up with a 6.

The big 12 is perceived to be down this year. Until BYU actually does something in the tournament, I don’t think the committee will give them the benefit of the doubt. I would be surprised with anything above a 6.

[Clark Addison]

Everyone was saying 5, borderline 4 seed last year before we ended up with a 6.

The big 12 is perceived to be down this year. Until BYU actually does something in the tournament, I don’t think the committee will give them the benefit of the doubt. I would be surprised with anything above a 6.

I'll be really happy with a 5, ok with a 6, unhappy with a 7.

[beefytee]

The committee will talk about the weak non-conference schedule when they explain BYU’s low seed.

[BlueK]

The committee will talk about the weak non-conference schedule when they explain BYU’s low seed.

That's actually a legitimate argument. Teams can control their non conference schedule. But the committee brings out that argument for teams from major conferences on the bubble with losing conference records who feel entitled by association but didn’t do enough in their conference to earn their way in, and also have no non conference key wins either. It's not necessarily a major factor for teams that have done other things very well like 7-7 against q1, including on the road at a couple of pretty high seeds like Arizona and twice away from home against Iowa St. I actually think this team is better positioned than last year's. We just lost and feel crappy about it, but to one of the #1 seeds. Step away and take a breath. It's not that big of a deal as far as the committee is concerned and the seeding will be fine.

[beefytee]

Step away and take a breath. It's not that big of a deal as far as the committee is concerned and the seeding will be fine.

I agree with this. I’m not preemptively getting angry at the committee. I’m fine with whatever seed we get and will enjoy the tournament. Any BYU wins will be great.

I just think people are being optimistic about our seed much like last year. Why would/should the committee give BYU any benefit of the doubt until they show they can do something in the tournament.

[BlueK]

Why would/should the committee give BYU any benefit of the doubt until they show they can do something in the tournament.

Because that isn't a thing for the committee. I know, no one believes me when I say that. But I've followed the committee and selection process pretty darn close for over a couple of decades. It's just not.

Last year because of the Sunday no play issue unfortunately they didn't have an option for giving us a 5 seed that we earned and they actually said that. That wasn't some huge slight.

I would say there are only two times in history the committee's treatment of BYU was inexplicably bad. It was in 2003 and again in 2004 with those crazy 12 seeds. With every other seeding before and since there's not a credible argument that the committee was ever way off. You can try to argue a seed line one way or the other any year with almost any team, but that's not bias. Also I can't even think of a single time we didn't make the tournament but had a resume that deserved to.

But this year no benefit of doubts is needed with this team anyway. That's something for bubble teams with lots of holes in their resume or for teams with late injuries to key players or who stumbled down the stretch with bonehead late losses or losing to a bad team in the first round of the conference tournament. This team is pretty much the opposite of that and took care of business down the stretch. It's not easy to win at Arizona or at Iowa State. Those are #3-4 seed teams. Byu historically doesn't win games like that very often. They won 8 in a row in a very respectable league when it mattered most. The committee rewards that stuff. Last year's team didn't have that nearly as much.

[byufan4ever]

Well, last time BYU lost to Houston by 31 and this time by just 20...so progress? Houston is a really good team so there's no shame in losing to them, but we just weren't competitive from tipoff. We weren't winning 50/50 balls and hustling like Houston was. They just wanted it more. Demin's recent play is really worrying. He and the team need to figure out how to beat the press. Beating ISU twice made me feel like we were contenders, but now...I feel like there's a huge gap between BYU and the elites and a very obvious kink in our armor. But hey, we hit 100% of our FTs!!

Keba Keita gets the Player of the Game. He was actually pretty bad in the first half, but really showed up to play in the second half. He had the best PER, GSc, and TS%. He had a nice double-double and two awesome blocks. Baker was nice off the bench, but no one else really showed up at all.

Trevin Knell gets the Struggled to Perform award. He made 1 shot, and the rest of his box score is all zeros with 1 TO. What was he doing for 19 minutes? With a negative PER and GSc, he was hurting our team being out there. Mag had the worst TS% missing all 3 FGs.

The season summary average PER has been updated for the two games this week. The top 5 did not change: Saunders / Keita / Demin / Traore / Hall.

Now we wait and see what kind of seed we get. Whatever you think we should get, add at least 1 to it. It's the BYU tax.

33 Houston.png

PER Summary 2025-03-14.png

[BlueK]

I suggest this site as a good one for comparing teams.

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2025/net-nitty

Also http://www.bracketmatrix.com/ gives the consensus from over 100 bracket projections. What the committee comes up with has historically been close to it. I consider within one seed line to be a good projection. It's like a margin of error. Historically, something like 90% of the teams end up seeded within one line of where the final bracket matrix has them. It also tracks the accuracy of each individual bracketologist and shows where they rank for accuracy

The matrix didn't yet exist in 2003 or 2004 when those committees did a lot of crazy stuff besides the hose job of BYU. It's well enough known and cited now that I believe it serves as kind of a backstop for the committee. The committee and process is also far more transparent now than it was 20 years ago. Everyone knows what the quadrants are and can see the NET now. Even the comments from TV guys has gotten better. I don't pay that much attention to Joe Lunardi's own bracket for getting a sense of where BYU or other teams stand currently. I use the matrix for that. But I will read what he says. The most important thing I think he does is help media and fans understand what the committee cares about and also what they don't care about.