2020 presidential election straw poll

[All-American]

Wow. What a brouhaha. Totally on AA's side, sorry.

AA: This has puzzled political scientists for many years. Why would anyone ever vote, since logically they can be shown that their vote doesnt matter? This is also studied in game theory as well, because there are costs to voting, so it is not logical to vote. (Although those costs are much lower for mail in ballots, a fact I was reflecting whilst voting on my kitchen table over a bowl of raisin bran.)

I think there is a paper by Matt McCubbins (may he rot in hell) and Gary Cox on this. People vote because they are reacting to a fear that it will come to election day, and their candidate will lose by 1 vote. Which could have been their vote. The closer straw polls are, the stronger the fear. McCubbins and Cox did not write about Trump, but I also sense that this year, when the President of the USA is making noises about invalidating mail votes based upon supposed corruption, or bad mail service that will deliver their ballot late, etc, more people want to make sure that their vote counts. So Trump is really bringing out the vote-- for his opponents.

Times like this I remember you are a U Chicago alum.

I was digging around earlier trying to find the paper I read on this point. It was years ago. I don't remember if it was while I was at Chicago or still at BYU. I don't think it was the one you are referring to, but that sounds like an interesting read as well.

The only rebuttal I ever see to this point is the one you all raised here: what happens if everybody, or a big number of people, didn't vote? But you don't have any impact on what everybody/a big number of people do. You only control your vote. So if the reason you vote is to determine an outcome, you are wasting your time.

I think people actually intuitively get this, notwithstanding the visceral reaction when confronted with it. I doubt anybody here is under the illusion that when they fill out their ballots they are casting the vote that will ultimately determine whether Trump or Biden will be president. My point is that we don't vote to determine the outcome-- we vote to be part of the team.

[All-American]

Jeez, the condescension is getting pretty thick in here.

After all those nice things I said about what Jeff owes you for deciding to be here, that's what you say? Not gonna lie, that stings a bit.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Wow. What a brouhaha. Totally on AA's side, sorry.

AA: This has puzzled political scientists for many years. Why would anyone ever vote, since logically they can be shown that their vote doesnt matter? This is also studied in game theory as well, because there are costs to voting, so it is not logical to vote. (Although those costs are much lower for mail in ballots, a fact I was reflecting whilst voting on my kitchen table over a bowl of raisin bran.)

I think there is a paper by Matt McCubbins (may he rot in hell) and Gary Cox on this. People vote because they are reacting to a fear that it will come to election day, and their candidate will lose by 1 vote. Which could have been their vote. The closer straw polls are, the stronger the fear. McCubbins and Cox did not write about Trump, but I also sense that this year, when the President of the USA is making noises about invalidating mail votes based upon supposed corruption, or bad mail service that will deliver their ballot late, etc, more people want to make sure that their vote counts. So Trump is really bringing out the vote-- for his opponents.

Times like this I remember you are a U Chicago alum.

Lol. Oh boy.

[Now who’s the dean?]

[emoji122][emoji122][emoji122]

Now somebody do the one about not really knowing if this table exists

[Jeff Lebowski]

Anybody whose primary motivation to vote is that their one vote might actually break a tie and decide the election is an idiot. That is not why the vast majority of people vote. Come on.

[Joe Public]

[emoji122][emoji122][emoji122]

Now somebody do the one about not really knowing if this table exists

I presume those are G. E. Moore’s hands clapping in your post.

[Flystripper]

People vote to belong to the group that determines the outcome. The group's strength is based on number of its members and individual votes are the source of that strength. People know that the ability to influence the outcome is small (you would say nonexistant) but people also know that without a vote their preferred group has less power.

You could say voting is tribal.

[All-American]

Anybody whose primary motivation to vote is that their one vote might actually break a tie and decide the election is an idiot. That is not why the vast majority of people vote. Come on.

That's exactly my point. Why DO people vote, even though they know it won't change the outcome?

[Jarid in Cedar]

“Has it ever dawned on the editors that the attitudes of the 70 million projected non-voters may be very consistent with the reality that the concept of voting and electing representatives is basically dishonest and fraudulent. If voting could change anything it would be made illegal! There is no way any politicians can legally represent anyone because he was elected on a secret ballot by a small percentage of voters. He then claims to represent the people who voted against him and even those who wisely chose not to participate in such criminal activity.“-Robert S. Borden. 1976

[All-American]

People vote to belong to the group that determines the outcome. The group's strength is based on number of its members and individual votes are the source of that strength. People know that the ability to influence the outcome is small (you would say nonexistant) but people also know that without a vote their preferred group has less power.

You could say voting is tribal.

I think that is mostly right-- voting is tribal, and people vote to belong to the tribe. It is also true as a matter of fact that individual votes are the source of strength, though the amount of power a single individual gives the group with her vote is negligible. In other words, when a person makes their decision on how or even whether to vote, the tribal element matters to the individual's voting choice far more than anything having to do with determining the outcome.

[Jeff Lebowski]

That's exactly my point. Why DO people vote, even though they know it won't change the outcome?

You struggle to understand that because you are using an extremely pedantic and nerdy definition of "change the outcome".

[beefytee]

Every vote matters. They matter a tiny bit but they matter.

I'm with AA on this though. I don't think it is important that you vote for someone because you think they have a shot at winning. You should vote for the candidate that will best represent you, because like everyone agrees on here, elections aren't decided by one vote and your vote won't cause someone to win or lose.

So I would argue that there are no wasted votes rather than all votes are wasted.

[All-American]

You struggle to understand that because you are using an extremely pedantic and nerdy definition of "change the outcome".

I appreciate the compliment, but that doesn't change the point.

[tooblue]

That's exactly my point. Why DO people vote, even though they know it won't change the outcome?

It is Hubris on both accounts ... if I vote, it is an act of hubris, but it is also an act of hubris if I don't vote.

[old_gregg]

You struggle to understand that because you are using an extremely pedantic and nerdy definition of "change the outcome".

huh? a vote either changes the outcome or it doesn't. if the only utility someone derives from voting is to aid the election of their preferred candidate, it is irrational for them to incur the cost of doing so. there are other reasons to vote (warm fuzzies, signaling, stickers, etc.). this isn't controversial and is well settled.