2020 General Presidential Election Thread

[beefytee]

Can we just go ahead and discount everything Nate Silver says from here on out? That guy has zero credibility now.

Much like last time, he is going to claim his forecast did pretty well.

Embedded Tweet

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...tion-forecast/

From his final forecast before the election:

But what’s tricky about this race is that — because of Trump’s Electoral College advantage, which he largely carries over from 2016 — it wouldn’t take that big of a polling error in Trump’s favor to make the election interesting. Importantly, interesting isn’t the same thing as a likely Trump win; instead, the probable result of a 2016-style polling error would be a Biden victory but one that took some time to resolve and which could imperil Democrats’ chances of taking over the Senate.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...tion-forecast/

[BlueK]

one thing that is stupid is the state laws in the upper midwest states that don't allow for counting of mail in votes until the very end.

[UVACoug]

Much like last time, he is going to claim his forecast did pretty well.

Embedded Tweet

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...tion-forecast/

From his final forecast before the election:



https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...tion-forecast/

Nate has positioned himself so he never has to take any blame. If the polls are wrong, it is the pollsters false. And since fivethirtyeight doesn't conduct any of their own polling, polling errors are never their fault. He has no problem shaming pollsters when they are wrong, while at the same time relying on them completely to support his "models." If he had any guts, he'd get out there and do his own polls and take some responsibility when he (like everyone else) makes mistakes.

[Paperback Writer]

one thing that is stupid is the state laws in the upper midwest states that don't allow that don't allow for counting of mail in votes until the very end.

Why even bother counting mail in votes unless they come close to outnumbering the margin of victory? However, states should have realized that in a pandemic that possibility is greatly increased and should have changed their laws.

[Flystripper]

2020 General Presidential Election Thread

Why even bother counting mail in votes unless they come close to outnumbering the margin of victory? However, states should have realized that in a pandemic that possibility is greatly increased and should have changed their laws.

They attempted to change the laws. The republican led legislatures shut it down so we would have this exact scenario.


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[Commando]

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news...er/6157997002/

Nate Silver says there is still a chance in Arizona:



https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blo...ults-coverage/

I don't think the remaining votes have a chance to make up the distance (100k votes) in Trump votes. Especially since there are still numbers coming from Pima and Coconino counties.

[Applejack]

I hope it doesn't come to that-- if for no other reason than that the next vacancy is likely to be Justice Thomas's seat, which I hope he fills for many years hence. But I also don't like the idea of confirming a SC justice only when the same party holds the Presidency and Senate becoming a norm.

I don't see a vacancy coming up in the first two years, which is when it would be hardest to justify not confirming. After that, who knows. We'll see.

The norm is now “we don’t bring a vote on any nominee that happens two years before an election when the senate and president of differing parties?”

[Jeff Lebowski]

I don't think the remaining votes have a chance to make up the distance (100k votes) in Trump votes. Especially since there are still numbers coming from Pima and Coconino counties.

At least we should have an answer today.

[Northwestcoug]

Here's another Nate pollster, saying similar but more cautious things about AZ:

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[Paperback Writer]

Nate has positioned himself so he never has to take any blame. If the polls are wrong, it is the pollsters false. And since fivethirtyeight doesn't conduct any of their own polling, polling errors are never their fault. He has no problem shaming pollsters when they are wrong, while at the same time relying on them completely to support his "models." If he had any guts, he'd get out there and do his own polls and take some responsibility when he (like everyone else) makes mistakes.

I think that is a legitimate criticism. Silver got his start evaluating baseball players based on their statistics. His models of data analysis gave insight and perhaps balance to "old school" baseball scouting methods. But a criticism of that approach is that data analysis may not always be applied correctly without the knowledge gained by playing and experiencing baseball - something that favors traditional baseball scouts.

When Silver applies his models to political elections, he may suffer similar "blind spots". Participating in the political process and canvassing voting districts would help. I see this frequently in data modeling. It's one thing to take raw data and run it through models and gain insights. It's another thing to understand what the data may actually mean. An imperfect analogy would be accounting data and financial analysis. Taking the audited financial statements and creating models based on that data and making financial predictions. As opposed to understanding the industry, the associated accounting rules, and recognizing how the data on the financial statements were actually derived.

[BlueK]

Why even bother counting mail in votes unless they come close to outnumbering the margin of victory? However, states should have realized that in a pandemic that possibility is greatly increased and should have changed their laws.

well you said it, in a pandemic things are a little different, and it's not like that was an unanticipated potential challenge this time. Also, they aren't hard to count and many of them, maybe the majority have been sitting there waiting to be counted for weeks

[BlueK]

They attempted to change the laws. The republican led legislatures shut it down so we would have this exact scenario.


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Exactly, this is what the GOP wanted.

[wapiti]

Nope and if there is a Supreme Court vacancy that comes up in February 2021, it won't be filled either.

Yes, it will. Guaranteed.

[falafel]

They attempted to change the laws. The republican led legislatures shut it down so we would have this exact scenario.


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Yep. Plus lawsuits by Republicans in places that successfully changed the laws.

[dabrockster]

2020 General Presidential Election Thread

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