2020 General Presidential Election Thread

[USUC]

The Lincoln Project do some good work. Why do you hate them so much?

From the vantage point of a progressive, not much outside of acting like histrionic teenagers. They aren't just dicks to Trump world, they even go after never Trump conservatives who want a functioning conservative movement after Trump

From the perspective of a libertarian? They are NeoCons. They are willing to abandon any notion of limited government to attack Trump. They are essentially progressives now.

[Copelius]

It's highly unlikely Trump would win Nevada. He has a better chance in Wisconsin, but not by that much. He's also just having to defend way too many states he won last time and he's behind by a few points in almost every state where it's close, and close in states where no Republican should be close like Georgia. So while I think the second map you showed is too optimistic for Biden, it's significantly closer than the first one.

I read somewhere that Florida is one of the states that starts tabulating votes as soon as they come in during early voting, so they could have a winner pretty early in the evening. That makes things really interesting because there are essentially zero realistic scenarios where Trump can win this without Florida's 29 EVs.

I am not making any predictions, just pointing out the trends of the polling posted. And like I said the first map was wholly assuming trends in a favorable way towards Trump. I personally see the outcome somewhere in between the two maps posted but solidly for Biden.

[Commando]

You are on the ground in AZ and know this race better than I do, but both Reuters and Rasmussen have this race tightening considerably over the past week. Maybe the Susquehanna polling is off, but it doesn't seem out of the question. The outcome of this race probably comes down to how the state votes for the president.

I've been told of a campaign towards Biden voting Republicans to vote GOP in Senate races. But I doubt such a campaign would be effective.

Mark Kelly is an extremely strong candidate and is actually polling well ahead of Biden. He's basically politically bulletproof as an astronaut and husband of Gabby Giffords - the Congresswoman who was shot in the head during the 2011 Tucson shooting. He should easily defeat Martha McSally, who is not popular after having lost the race to Kyrsten Sinema and then was appointed to John McCain's vacated seat by Ducey. She has been acting like Trump's Chihuahua, which is baffling since Arizona self-corrected to moderate in 2018 and she lost that senate race doing the same far-right thing she's doing now...

[SeattleUte]

You must mean lap dog. Chihuahuas are mean and independent.

[Uncle Ted]

This might be the most truthful thing I have ever heard Joe say...

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[frank ryan]

From the vantage point of a progressive, not much outside of acting like histrionic teenagers. They aren't just dicks to Trump world, they even go after never Trump conservatives who want a functioning conservative movement after Trump

From the perspective of a libertarian? They are NeoCons. They are willing to abandon any notion of limited government to attack Trump. They are essentially progressives now.

I guess I don't see them as more alarmist that any other political outfit. Didn't know they go after never-Trumpers.

[BlueK]

Here we go, now 9 days before election.

13 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.5, Clinton up 5.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4 points, Clinton by 4.1
12 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.9, Clinton up 4.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4.1 points, Clinton by 3.8
11 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.9, Clinton up 3.9; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4.1 points, Clinton by 3.8
10 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.1, Clinton up 3.8; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.8 points, Clinton by 3.8
9 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.0, Clinton up 2.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.8 points, Clinton by 3.6

[Uncle Ted]

Here we go, now 9 days before election. The bottom was starting to fall out for Clinton but somehow no one noticed. She lost 3 points in the average of national polls in just 4 days, with the Comey announcement half way in there. To this point Biden is still doing better than she was.

13 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.5, Clinton up 5.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4 points, Clinton by 4.1
12 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.9, Clinton up 4.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4.1 points, Clinton by 3.8
11 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.9, Clinton up 3.9; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4.1 points, Clinton by 3.8
10 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.1, Clinton up 3.8; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.8 points, Clinton by 3.8
9 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.0, Clinton up 2.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.8 points, Clinton by 3.6

Yeah, this might be a close one... It seems that Drumpf only has a 87% chance of winning:

Donald Trump has 87% chance of winning the election, stock market researcher says

President Donald Trump has a very good chance of winning the 2020 presidential election against Joe Biden, if a more than 200-year overview of the stock market is to be believed.

That's according to research from the Socionomic Institute, a group that has long used the stock market to predict elections and economic and cultural trends.

The research, going back to George Washington, found 16 times in U.S. history when an incumbent president ran for reelection and the stock market was up more than 20% in the preceding three years. In 14 of those 16 times, the incumbent won reelection, giving a success rate of 87%. If the trend holds, Mr. Trump could be No. 15.
[...]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-e...-stock-market/

[Uncle Ted]

Hey, has the FBI announced they are investigating Joe yet?

Hunter's Ex-Business Partner Says Joe Biden Lied About Business Deals In China, FBI Has Proof

Tony Bobulinski, a former business partner of Hunter Biden, accused former VP Joe Biden of lying about his role in his son's international dealings during a statement to the WH press corps just 90 minutes before Thursday's presidential debate. Bobulinski, who will be a guest at the debate, said he has three phones that will prove his claims and he is giving them to the FBI.
[...]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...has_proof.html

[Uncle Ted]

Here we go, now 9 days before election.

13 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.5, Clinton up 5.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4 points, Clinton by 4.1
12 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.9, Clinton up 4.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4.1 points, Clinton by 3.8
11 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.9, Clinton up 3.9; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4.1 points, Clinton by 3.8
10 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.1, Clinton up 3.8; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.8 points, Clinton by 3.8
9 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.0, Clinton up 2.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.8 points, Clinton by 3.6

LOL... Biden is so confident he has this in the bag that he is taking the next 9 days off and working from his basement:

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Or maybe his campaign decided with all the gaffes he has been making lately he is not safe to be out in the public.

[BlueK]

LOL... Biden is so confident he has this in the bag that he is taking the next 9 days off and working from his basement:

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Or maybe his campaign decided with all the gaffes he has been making lately he is not safe to be out in the public.

You clearly have nothing to worry about because Trump is enormously popular.

[Uncle Ted]

Mark Kelly is an extremely strong candidate and is actually polling well ahead of Biden. He's basically politically bulletproof as an astronaut and husband of Gabby Giffords - the Congresswoman who was shot in the head during the 2011 Tucson shooting. He should easily defeat Martha McSally, who is not popular after having lost the race to Kyrsten Sinema and then was appointed to John McCain's vacated seat by Ducey. She has been acting like Trump's Chihuahua, which is baffling since Arizona self-corrected to moderate in 2018 and she lost that senate race doing the same far-right thing she's doing now...

Buzz Aldrin disagrees...

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[beefytee]

Buzz Aldrin disagrees...

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I'm withholding judgement until I hear what Neil Degrasse Tyson has to say on the subject.

[PaloAltoCougar]

Here we go, now 9 days before election.

13 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.5, Clinton up 5.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4 points, Clinton by 4.1
12 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.9, Clinton up 4.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4.1 points, Clinton by 3.8
11 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.9, Clinton up 3.9; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4.1 points, Clinton by 3.8
10 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.1, Clinton up 3.8; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.8 points, Clinton by 3.8
9 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.0, Clinton up 2.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.8 points, Clinton by 3.6

An interesting recent podcast (can't remember which one) mentioned that following the 2016 election, pollsters determined that they should have included more non-college-educated white voters in their models, which was the main difference in their polls vs. final results. They've adjusted their models accordingly. It will be interesting to see if next week's results prove their adjusted models to be more accurate. No doubt they're overlooking one or more other elements this time around, but to whose benefit?

[BlueK]

An interesting recent podcast (can't remember which one) mentioned that following the 2016 election, pollsters determined that they should have included more non-college-educated white voters in their models, which was the main difference in their polls vs. final results. They've adjusted their models accordingly. It will be interesting to see if next week's results prove their adjusted models to be more accurate. No doubt they're overlooking one or more other elements this time around, but to whose benefit?

This cnn article talks about how Clinton's lead fell apart.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/25/polit...ing/index.html