2020 General Presidential Election Thread

[Katy Lied]

I also have election fatigue. I wish it were over and Trump gone.

[USUC]

At this point I couldn't care less about the polling for the presidency. I just don't see a realistic way for Trump. However, turnout is interesting in how it impacts congress.

The Senate is much more interesting. I'm seeing most scenarios having the Dems pick up a net 4 seats which would put the Dem control at 51-49. For my preferred outcomes, this is acceptable. The GOP is punished but with such a slim margin it will be tough for Dems to get rid of the filibuster. But some have the probably senate makeup to be 54-46 which gives me nightmares.

[Moliere]

I also have election fatigue. I wish it were over and Trump gone.

Don't worry. After the election, America will spend the next two years investigating some type of election fraud allegation (main in voting or undocumented voting if Biden wins and foreign collusion if Trump wins), which will take us right into the start of the 2024 election cycle. Throw in a supreme court justice appointment during that time as well and you'll never get away from any of it.

[frank ryan]

Serious incriminating photos!

[ATTACH]10511[/ATTACH][ATTACH]10512[/ATTACH][ATTACH]10513[/ATTACH][ATTACH]10514[/ATTACH][ATTACH]10515[/ATTACH]

That flag one is odd.

[fusnik]

Hey RussiaTed!

Do Giuliani now trying to bed a 15 year old on camera.

[PaloAltoCougar]

I won't/can't tune into tonight's debate, but I hope Biden continues to stay low-key and not rise to Trump's bait. Trumpsters rip on Biden for not being more active on the campaign trail, but given his existing edge, I think Biden is playing it right. He should remain relatively quiet, letting Trump continue his crazy rants, and maintaining a "take all the rope you need" strategy.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I won't/can't tune into tonight's debate, but I hope Biden continues to stay low-key and not rise to Trump's bait. Trumpsters rip on Biden for not being more active on the campaign trail, but given his existing edge, I think Biden is playing it right. He should remain relatively quiet, letting Trump continue his crazy rants, and maintaining a "take all the rope you need" strategy.

I am so happy they are going to mute the mics. Really embarrassing that it needs to be done, but here we are.

[SeattleUte]

I won't/can't tune into tonight's debate, but I hope Biden continues to stay low-key and not rise to Trump's bait. Trumpsters rip on Biden for not being more active on the campaign trail, but given his existing edge, I think Biden is playing it right. He should remain relatively quiet, letting Trump continue his crazy rants, and maintaining a "take all the rope you need" strategy.

It’s as if the debate refs are trying to save Trump from himself. His best hope of a favorable outcome is to let Biden talk and then address that. Trump’s handlers must be grateful for those intervals of dead mikes.

I’m going for a sweep. I haven’t been able to bring myself to watch a single debate this entire election cycle.

[BlueK]

To compare to 2016, in the national polls Biden currently leads Trump by an average of 8.5 points. At this point in the election (13 days before) Clinton's average lead in national polls was 5.6. In the Real Clear Politics average of polls from six battleground states (FL, NC, AZ, PA, WI, MI) Biden's lead is 4 points over Trump. Clinton's lead 13 days out was 4.1 points. I'll look at these comparisons over the next few days because we're getting close to the point in the 2016 campaign where James Comey made his announcement about reopening the investigation into Clinton's emails. That happened 11 days before the election.

Update to how polls look in 2020 compared to 2016

13 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.5, Clinton up 5.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4 points, Clinton by 4.1
12 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.9, Clinton up 4.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4.1 points, Clinton by 3.8

[falafel]

Update to how polls look in 2020 compared to 2016

13 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.5, Clinton up 5.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4 points, Clinton by 4.1
12 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.9, Clinton up 4.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4.1 points, Clinton by 3.8

Although the Trump supporters appear to be much more bold this time around, I am still worried about the closet Trumpers who don't even dare reveal themselves to pollsters and only come out in the ballot box.

[Applejack]

Although the Trump supporters appear to be much more bold this time around, I am still worried about the closet Trumpers who don't even dare reveal themselves to pollsters and only come out in the ballot box.

http://www.cougarstadium.com/showthr...ion-straw-poll

[BlueK]

Although the Trump supporters appear to be much more bold this time around, I am still worried about the closet Trumpers who don't even dare reveal themselves to pollsters and only come out in the ballot box.

who personality-wise would have to be much different than the stereotypical in your face, dozens of Trump yard signs in one yard crowd.

You may be right, but then I think possibly we are conflating social media behavior where these folks wouldn't dare say much in a post vs. telling an anonymous stranger who they'll never meet agian on the phone. Also, that doesn't account for the fact that a good portion of the data is collected online now or on automated phone calls.

I'm going to be tracking the day to day comparison in these numbers until the election. I'm 90% sure it will show the polls did indeed record the late shift toward Trump but most only remember now how Clinton was way ahead for most of the campaign.

[SeattleUte]

On the night of the election the New York Times was estimating Hilary 90 high-plus percent chance of winning. It shifted in the blink of an eye at about 7 pm Pacifuc, give or take about an hour.

[SeattleUte]

What about this time's October Surprise?

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/1...d-drive-431022

[Jeff Lebowski]

The whole laptop provenance is beyond fishy. A good list of things that don't make sense at the bottom of this article:

https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/14/su...al-media-bans/

Hunter Biden drops this off and doesn't include a password or encryption? And in repairing water damage, the owner goes through each of the files on the drive? gtfo.