At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[old_gregg]

First give me your tolerable number of deaths for a virus that's killing people with average age of 79.5 and people who generally already have another serious medical condition. 50K? 1M? I'll go with 100K.

Next, include an assumption that preserving the economy is also extremely important.

Next, look at the worldwide data and US data in terms of number of cases and lives lost.

Next, include an assumption that with deaths at 16K and cases at 450K and the economy completely in the toilet, experts are telling us we're reaching the peak in terms of total cases.

Given that, do you think it's extremely likely that a slightly less extreme reaction to handling the virus could have improved the economic impact while keeping loss of life in the tolerable range?

(more importantly) Also, do you think it's extremely likely that relaxing restrictions with a priority on kick starting the economy immediately while minimizing risk in as many areas as possible, different guidelines for urban vs less urban areas, wearing masks, work from home where possible, no handshakes, keep school online until the year is out, keep old and vulnerable people quarantined, etc, could all that take place immediately while keeping the loss of life in the tolerable range?

I understand why hipster morons on fb are still exaggerating the need for economic shutdown to control a virus that's taken 16K lives, but I don't understand why smart people here are doing so.

because it's taken 16k lives in part because of the economic shutdown (to the extent the economy is shut down). not to mention, you can't work backwards like this--you're assuming that there can and will be only one peak in the morbidity distribution. even one "super spreader" can change outcomes for a given locality in a significant way.

by the way, for those advocating for something other than the quarantine orders, what specific activities would you permit that would constitute a middle of the road approach?

[Northwestcoug]

Glad we agree. So let's make immediate changes starting now to reverse the economic impact of these unnecessary measures.

With death rates still climbing in many urban centers, and with many rural areas not experiencing their peak, what immediate changes are you comfortable making now?

[Northwestcoug]

the majority in hospitality, entertainment, food service, and other consumer discretionary will be permanent.

Great. My 18 year-old son will be sitting around even longer looking for a job.

[beefytee]

the majority in hospitality, entertainment, food service, and other consumer discretionary will be permanent.

I'm wondering what your foreseeing here. Do you think there are going to be less places that offer the services and less demand? Or will the way they offer services change to reduce the amount of labor needed?

[SeattleUte]

by the way, for those advocating for something other than the quarantine orders, what specific activities would you permit that would constitute a middle of the road approach?

This isn't our burden. We're private citizens who didn't cause this, the government did if anyone's at fault, including the government having shut down half of the economy. But opening it up is not as daunting as it seems. We let people smoke, and put warnings on cigarette packs. We let people drive, and have rules of the road. Open it up with strict guidelines about meetings, density in restaurants, working conditions in specific industries, exemptions and indefinite unemployment for workers with vulnerabilities. Then leave it up to people to make their own decisions. Most people will figure out if they haven't already that they have lost more than they have to gain during this shutdown. People will assume the risk. They will also be responsible for their vulnerable loved ones. It's called personal accountability.

I don't have all the answers, there is much more to it than this. But I don't have all the data and this isn't my field. But I have said more about this than any politician has had the gumption to do.

[Flystripper]

I'm wondering what your foreseeing here. Do you think there are going to be less places that offer the services and less demand? Or will the way they offer services change to reduce the amount of labor needed?

Less demand and eventually less places to offer services because of less demand. The demand will shift to other channels and eventually labor will follow, but consumers are going to be slow to consume in the traditional way. There will be long lasting structural changes to the economy as we come out of this.

Also when we try and re-open in 2-3 months and there is zero availability in existing PPP facilities, businesses will fail. It will be an unintended consequence of this government program. In order to have the PPP loan transitioned to a grant, businesses can't fire people. So when retail, restaurants, movie theaters, hotels, ets are slow to recover because people's behavior is permanently changed or is slow to "get back to normal" revenue will be significantly down. Without a quick recovery, companies will be faced with the choice of laying people off and being saddled with more debt than is prudent, or keeping people on but having a labor cost structure that is not aligned with revenue levels.

Not every industry will be impacted in the same way but these sectors will be a drag on the overall economy for a long time.

[Eddie]

This isn't our burden. We're private citizens who didn't cause this, the government did if anyone's at fault, including the government having shut down half of the economy. But opening it up is not as daunting as it seems. We let people smoke, and put warnings on cigarette packs. We let people drive, and have rules of the road. Open it up with strict guidelines about meetings, density in restaurants, working conditions in specific industries, exemptions and indefinite unemployment for workers with vulnerabilities. Then leave it up to people to make their own decisions. Most people will figure out if they haven't already that they have lost more than they have to gain during this shutdown. People will assume the risk. They will also be responsible for their vulnerable loved ones. It's called personal accountability.

I don't have all the answers, there is much more to it than this. But I don't have all the data and this isn't my field. But I have said more about this than any politician has had the gumption to do.

People like you might assume the risk. I've been astounded by the number of people who are still pretty freaked out and upset anytime they see another human walking down the sidewalk in front of their home or not wearing a mask.

Sure - there are also people on the other extreme who think we're ready to end all shutdowns immediately and return to normal tomorrow, as well as a large group in the middle who would continue to take precautions while easing back into normal functioning. But I think you underestimate the number who are terrified of this thing and haven't even left their home in the last two weeks. There are more than a handful in my neighborhood, at work, etc. Nationwide I don't think it's an insignificant number.

[SeattleUte]

People like you might assume the risk. I've been astounded by the number of people who are still pretty freaked out and upset anytime they see another human walking down the sidewalk in front of their home or not wearing a mask.

Sure - there are also people on the other extreme who think we're ready to end all shutdowns immediately and return to normal tomorrow, as well as a large group in the middle who would continue to take precautions while easing back into normal functioning. But I think you underestimate the number who are terrified of this thing and haven't even left their home in the last two weeks. There are more than a handful in my neighborhood, at work, etc. Nationwide I don't think it's an insignificant number.

Ignorance. These same people don't realize all the different ways they could be killed by unlikely freak accidents. Probably some of them smoke and ride motorcycles. But people who don't want to take a risk bigger than driving a car to have a career or a job, it's their decision. John Madden takes trains everywhere because he's scared of flying (trains may be more dangerous--this may be an urban legend but servers as illustration here). It's his choice.

[tooblue]

Ignorance. These same people don't realize all the different ways they could be killed by unlikely freak accidents. Probably some of them smoke and ride motorcycles. But people who don't want to take a risk bigger than driving a car to have a career or a job, it's their decision. John Madden takes trains everywhere because he's scared of flying (trains may be more dangerous--this may be an urban legend but servers as illustration here). It's his choice.

Sweden's Relaxed Approach to the Coronavirus Could Already Be Backfiring

https://time.com/5817412/sweden-coronavirus/

"Sweden has a relatively high case fatality rate: as of April 8, 7.68% of the Swedes who have tested positive for COVID-19 have died of the virus. Neighboring countries, like Norway and Denmark, have case fatality rates of 1.46% and 3.85% respectively. (The U.S. case fatality rate is 3.21%.) While Sweden’s elevated case fatality rate could be a result of its low testing rates compared to its neighbors, experts say Sweden’s laissez-faire approach could also be to blame."

[YOhio]

So the real question is how quickly COVID-19 is destroyed after the fast tomorrow. I think Monday at the latest.

[SeattleUte]

So the real question is how quickly COVID-19 is destroyed after the fast tomorrow. I think Monday at the latest.

The fast won't work. We need science.

[Eddie]

So the real question is how quickly COVID-19 is destroyed after the fast tomorrow. I think Monday at the latest.

I'm going with Sunday. It's biblical. Good Friday is the day of the fast - and the day that Christ was crucified. Then he was resurrected on Sunday. It only makes sense that there would be despair mixed with some small amount of hope for the same amount of time that Christ was in the tomb, then at the time he left the tomb - saving us from death through the resurrection - we'll be saved from the coronavirus.

It just makes the most sense.

[PaloAltoCougar]

Random lunchtime thoughts: Imagine all of the dissertations, theses, and papers that will be written in the coming years about government steps, missteps and omissions during this period. Addressing all of the scientific, medical, social, governmental and other issues may compel universities to create a College of Covid Studies.

And in the midst of said thoughts, I was reminded of the Charlton Heston movie, The Omega Man, in which a plague has either killed most of the world's citizens or turned them into mutant gangs. Mr. Heston, with his usual understated performance, plays a guy who's immune but ends up saving the world by dying, with his blood being used to provide antibodies to immunize the surviving few. Could happen.

[Pelado]

The fast won't work. We need science.

O ye of little faith.

[Flystripper]

The fast won't work. We need science.

agreed

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