At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[myboynoah]

We topped 50,000 deaths in the U.S. today. 60,000 is not that far away. Unless there is a big drop in new cases (which is unlikely if we mimic Italy, Spain, France, and now the UK), could hit 80,000 by mid-June.

We've flattened the curve nationwide, but we've flattened the curve at 28,000-29,000 new cases per day. And that is with inadequate testing in most places. And some state opening up their economies too early.

U.S. case mortality rate is 5.7%. So if we are seeing roughly 28,500 new cases per day, that should translate into roughly 1,600 losses from each daily new case count sometime over the two weeks that follow. U.S. mortality per 1 million population is up to 152.

[Jarid in Cedar]

New York approaching herd immunity per this expert.

https://medium.com/@karl.dierenbach/...y-c77229de1fe5

You must have a low threshold for who you considered an expert.

[Uncle Ted]

We topped 50,000 deaths in the U.S. today. 60,000 is not that far away. Unless there is a big drop in new cases (which is unlikely if we mimic Italy, Spain, France, and now the UK), could hit 80,000 by mid-June.

It is interesting to put these numbers in perspective... we still have a ways to go to catch those European countries:

But we did pass up China and Iran! And where is Russia? They are totally missing the party.

We've flattened the curve nationwide, but we've flattened the curve at 28,000-29,000 new cases per day. And that is with inadequate testing in most places. And some state opening up their economies too early.

U.S. case mortality rate is 5.7%. So if we are seeing roughly 28,500 new cases per day, that should translate into roughly 1,600 losses from each daily new case count sometime over the two weeks that follow. U.S. mortality per 1 million population is up to 152.

It may depend on who they open up their economies to...

In New York City, an epicenter of the pandemic with more than one-third of all U.S. deaths, the rate of death for people 18 to 45 years old is 0.01 percent, or 11 per 100,000 in the population. On the other hand, people aged 75 and over have a death rate 80 times that. For people under 18 years old, the rate of death is zero per 100,000.


Of all fatal cases in New York state, two-thirds were in patients over 70 years of age; more than 95 percent were over 50 years of age; and about 90 percent of all fatal cases had an underlying illness. Of 6,570 confirmed COVID-19 deaths fully investigated for underlying conditions to date, 6,520, or 99.2 percent, had an underlying illness. If you do not already have an underlying chronic condition, your chances of dying are small, regardless of age. And young adults and children in normal health have almost no risk of any serious illness from COVID-19.

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthca...otal-isolation

So if you are old and/or fat maybe you should stay home and wait around for a vaccine (which could be a while). The rest of us need to get back to work before the famine kills us and China's 'useful idiots' bankrupt this country.

[Moliere]

We topped 50,000 deaths in the U.S. today. 60,000 is not that far away. Unless there is a big drop in new cases (which is unlikely if we mimic Italy, Spain, France, and now the UK), could hit 80,000 by mid-June.

Seems almost inevitable that we'll hit 100k at some point, especially if there is a second wave

We've flattened the curve nationwide, but we've flattened the curve at 28,000-29,000 new cases per day. And that is with inadequate testing in most places. And some state opening up their economies too early.

What states have reopended their economy? Seems like most, if not all, are still on lockdown with some planning to reopen soon. Not sure how that would contribute to the curve not going down. You also have to look at the number of tests being performed. Testing capacity is start to go up (finally!) so cases that wound't have previously been identified are now able to get picked up. The serological testing being done shows that a lot of cases were going undetected, even if the magnitude of the results of the seroligical testing was grossly overreported. So the curve of positive cases is flattened but that doesn't mean the total case count (posiitve and unidentified) isn't going down.

U.S. case mortality rate is 5.7%. So if we are seeing roughly 28,500 new cases per day, that should translate into roughly 1,600 losses from each daily new case count sometime over the two weeks that follow. U.S. mortality per 1 million population is up to 152.

You are assuming that identified cases are of the same severity. They are not. In the early part of the pandemic people who obviously had COVID 19 were told to stay home unless their symptoms got bad enough that they needed hospitalization. Many mild cases went undetected and weren't counted. The severe cases were the ones being counted. Now that places like Utah have excess testing capacity, milder cases are being picked up. I'd expect the mortality rate to fall, maybe even dramatically as the milder and some asymptomatic cases are identified in greater number.

[SeattleUte]

You must have a low threshold for who you considered an expert.

Engineers aren't experts? This place would lead you to believe otherwise.

[SeattleUte]

We topped 50,000 deaths in the U.S. today. 60,000 is not that far away. Unless there is a big drop in new cases (which is unlikely if we mimic Italy, Spain, France, and now the UK), could hit 80,000 by mid-June.

We've flattened the curve nationwide, but we've flattened the curve at 28,000-29,000 new cases per day. And that is with inadequate testing in most places. And some state opening up their economies too early.

U.S. case mortality rate is 5.7%. So if we are seeing roughly 28,500 new cases per day, that should translate into roughly 1,600 losses from each daily new case count sometime over the two weeks that follow. U.S. mortality per 1 million population is up to 152.

What we're doing now doesn't seem to be working? Or, it has outlived its effectiveness? Meanwhile, there are massive economic and public health costs to the shutdown.

[tooblue]

World leaders launch WHO plan to curb COVID-19, U.S. not involved

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who/world-leaders-to-launch-who-covid-19-plan-but-u-s-wont-take-part-idUSKCN2261M7

[wapiti]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/fda-...-reported.html

I wonder what the state of Utah will do with it's massive supply of this stuff. It can't safely be taken at home so it's basically useless outside of the most severe cases (and I've also read it only really helps for early onset . . . so . . .).

By most accounts Utah has done a nice job with the corona response. This was clearly a swing and miss, possibly a corrupt one.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/04/23/utah-has-already-ordered/

There is no realistic scenario under which the stat would need 220K sets of this drug for COVID19. It's more likely at this point that there will be a glut of supply and the price will drop for those who need it for non-COVID19 reasons.

[YOhio]

World leaders launch WHO plan to curb COVID-19, U.S. not involved

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN2261M7

lol. They are on it! Great work, WHO!

[BigPiney]

[Flystripper]

[Surfah]

Engineers aren't experts? This place would lead you to believe otherwise.

He's a patent attorney.

[BigFatMeanie]

How about "Cliven"? (I didn't want to sully either the missionary or explorer described in Book of Mormon by using the name Ammon)

Speaking of "Cliven", I was watching the new season of Bosch last night and spotted a Cliven Bundy reference.

Spoiler for Minor spoiler alert:

A large part of the plot centers on a bunch of nutjob sovereign citizen types. There is a scene where two nutjobs are chatting over what looks like a video game and the screen name for one of them is "Cliven B."

[SeattleUte]

He's a patent attorney.

He is also an engineer. You can’t be a patent attorney unless you are also a scientist. You must have a science or engineering degree. He is more qualified than the class action lawyer whose work NWCoug has linked. I know that engineers know how to make models.

[old_gregg]

He is also an engineer. You can’t be a patent attorney unless you are also a scientist. You must have a science or engineering degree. He is more qualified than the class action lawyer whose work NWCoug has linked. I know that engineers know how to make models.

it's too bad we don't have any engineers around here who have had successful careers building businesses making and analyzing models for different constituencies. guess we'll have to trust the medium guy whose career providing commodity legal services will soon be replaced by rudimentary ai.