War with Iran - DEFCON 3

[Uncle Ted]

As far as I know, Mike Lee is still set to be one of Trump's campaign chairs in Utah.

He must been doing a great job given how bad Hillary was defeated in Utah. Do you think the Dems candidate will even break 25% there in the 2020 election?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bo Diddley]

Yeah, looks like Iran shot down the Ukrainian flight. I wonder if they will still insist we shot down Flight 655 on purpose back in 1988.

[creekster]

Yeah, looks like Iran shot down the Ukrainian flight. I wonder if they will still insist we shot down Flight 655 on purpose back in 1988.

I wondered the same thing (as posted above). I think there will be a lot more information coming out about this in the next few days, and it will be interesting to see what happened. It wasn't like this plane was hit as part of a SRBM attack (and the timing is wrong, too), so what did they think they were shooting at?

[wapiti]

I wondered the same thing (as posted above). I think there will be a lot more information coming out about this in the next few days, and it will be interesting to see what happened. It wasn't like this plane was hit as part of a SRBM attack (and the timing is wrong, too), so what did they think they were shooting at?

No way was it a mechanical failure. A 4 year old Boeing from an airline with a really good safety record went down in Iran on the night they launched missles at the US and were on high alert for an American response. I doubt it was on purpose as there were no Americans on board and they killed a bunch of Iranians. They need to own the mistake rather than make up a story about engine failure.

[creekster]

No way was it a mechanical failure. A 4 year old Boeing from an airline with a really good safety record went down in Iran on the night they launched missles at the US and were on high alert for an American response. I doubt it was on purpose as there were no Americans on board and they killed a bunch of Iranians. They need to own the mistake rather than make up a story about engine failure.

But the missiles they fired at the iraqi bases were reportedly ballistic surface to surface missiles. Hitting a plane with one of those missiles on purpose would be very difficult if not impossible and doing so by accident would be as likely as the time Randy Johnson hit a bird with a pitch. Moreover, my understanding is that the plane crashed some time after the SRBMs were launched. So if the Iranians did shoot the plane down, what did they think they were shooting? My assumptions here could be wrong, and I still think we need a lot more information.

[Jeff Lebowski]

But the missiles they fired at the iraqi bases were reportedly ballistic surface to surface missiles. Hitting a plane with one of those missiles on purpose would be very difficult if not impossible and doing so by accident would be as likely as the time Randy Johnson hit a bird with a pitch. Moreover, my understanding is that the plane crashed some time after the SRBMs were launched. So if the Iranians did shoot the plane down, what did they think they were shooting? My assumptions here could be wrong, and I still think we need a lot more information.

I am not sure anyone is suggesting that one of the ballistic missiles took out the plane. Far more likely that some chump mistook the plane for a US fighter or drone and launched surface-to-air missiles. They are saying it was hit by two missiles.

[creekster]

I am not sure anyone is suggesting that one of the ballistic missiles took out the plane. Far more likely that some chump mistook the plane for a US fighter or drone and launched surface-to-air missiles. They are saying it was hit by two missiles.

Which is a very karmic event (for the iranians, not the unfortunates on the plane, obviously). But it is hard to imagine there being another series of missteps leading to the shooting down of an airliner in the same general area. I would imagine that the US military has a very good idea what happened as I have no doubt after the missile launches iranian airspace was being monitored pretty closely. Either way, looking at the debris field it seems pretty clear this is not a mechanical issue. What a tragedy.

[Bo Diddley]

Yeah, radar signatures and other data used in air defense systems lead to regular false ID of incoming threats.

[creekster]

Yeah, radar signatures and other data used in air defense systems lead to regular false ID of incoming threats.

But just like the Vincennes incident, the plane would be the wrong size and speed and unlike the vincennes incident, it would be heading in the wrong direction. Or am I imagining that wrong?

[Bo Diddley]

But just like the Vincennes incident, the plane would be the wrong size and speed and unlike the vincennes incident, it would be heading in the wrong direction. Or am I imagining that wrong?

What direction was the plane traveling when it went down? It was at 8000 feet, so depending on the air traffic pattern it could have been going anywhere. Its speed could have been in the range of different types of potential threats. The size would be reflected in the radar signature, but different factors can impact that as well. I think they probably had air defense systems actively looking for any threat and hit the panic button when the alarms went off.

[wapiti]

What direction was the plane traveling when it went down? It was at 8000 feet, so depending on the air traffic pattern it could have been going anywhere. Its speed could have been in the range of different types of potential threats. The size would be reflected in the radar signature, but different factors can impact that as well. I think they probably had air defense systems actively looking for any threat and hit the panic button when the alarms went off.

All civilian air craft should have been grounded on a night where you are launching missiles at an enemy that is ready to fire back.

[Bo Diddley]

All civilian air craft should have been grounded on a night where you are launching missiles at an enemy that is ready to fire back.

It's risky business flying in, out, or over areas in active conflict.

I remember flying out of Baghdad a few days after seeing a DHL plane get hit by a surface to air missile. It was sitting off the side of the runway as we taxied down the runway in a C-130. We flew back a few days later and that DHL plane was out of site, moved somewhere. That night President Bush flew in on Air Force One to visit the troops. With the context of the anti-air missile a week or so prior, President Bush's visit was pretty gutsy.

[SeattleUte]

David Brooks of the New York Times nails it. Trump's triumph is that he has made the Democrats stupid.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/o...core-ios-share

[Uncle Ted]

What direction was the plane traveling when it went down? It was at 8000 feet, so depending on the air traffic pattern it could have been going anywhere. Its speed could have been in the range of different types of potential threats. The size would be reflected in the radar signature, but different factors can impact that as well. I think they probably had air defense systems actively looking for any threat and hit the panic button when the alarms went off.

No, it was Drumpf... He killed them:

Embedded Tweet

[myboynoah]

David Brooks if the New York Times nails it. Trump's triumph is that he has made the Democrats stupid.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/o...core-ios-share

Brooks is awesome.

Another reward is that you’ve managed to eliminate an effective terrorist like Soleimani. Talent doesn’t grow on trees.

Legit assessment. Talent does not grow on trees. We are better off that this guy is no longer pulling strings across the region.

Love or hate him, Trump has used military force less than any other president since Jimmy Carter. When it comes to foreign policy, he is not like recent Republicans. He is, as my colleague Ross Douthat put it, a Jacksonian figure, wanting to get America out of foreign entanglements while lobbing a few long-distance attacks to ensure the crazy foreigners stick to killing one another and not us.

Trump is a lot of things, but he's not a warmongering idiot. He's very timid when it comes to foreign entanglements. I was surprised that he authorized the Soleimani action.