War with Iran - DEFCON 3

[Pelado]

The Bee used to bug me and rarely amused, but it's been a lot better recently.

Amen.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Russia likes how our engagement with Iran is drawing away assets we would be sending to Ukraine. China likes that we are depleting our stocks. They both have their eyes on expanding their borders.

Huh?

What about the Iranian drones that were going to Russia but aren’t now? What about china’s oil from Iran that is stuck and can’t get through the strait of Hormuz?

[Bo Diddley]

Huh?

What about the Iranian drones that were going to Russia but aren’t now? What about china’s oil from Iran that is stuck and can’t get through the strait of Hormuz?

I was speaking in general terms. I didn't mean to say it was all roses for them. Obviously there are aspects that both Russia and China don't like about the war, but on balance, they are happy that we are mired in this conflict--Russia moreso than China. Russia is also benefitting from the cost of oil. China has to pay that cost, but they win from our strategic focus on Iran.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I was speaking in general terms. I didn't mean to say it was all roses for them. Obviously there are aspects that both Russia and China don't like about the war, but on balance, they are happy that we are mired in this conflict--Russia moreso than China. Russia is also benefitting from the cost of oil. China has to pay that cost, but they win from our strategic focus on Iran.

That’s a stretch. The USA wiping out one of their big strategic allies in the region does not seem like a great thing for Russia.

[Northwestcoug]

200 billion huh? Seems like a lot for a war that’s supposed to end in 1-2 weeks.

[dabrockster]

200 billion huh? Seems like a lot for a war that’s supposed to end in 1-2 weeks.

Come on. That has never been stated and has been comment after comment of it being a month to 6-weeks.

[Northwestcoug]

Come on. That has never been stated and has been comment after comment of it being a month to 6-weeks.

wait, what are you saying was never stated? The duration of the war? Trump and many of his cabinet repeatedly said this war has a timeline of weeks. Granted, they aren't saying it now that their expectations have been dashed, but still. It was sold as something that would be over soon.

[SteelBlue]

Huh?

What about the Iranian drones that were going to Russia but aren’t now?

Russia has been manufacturing their own version based on the Shaheds they purchased back in 22, no?

[SteelBlue]

Come on. That has never been stated and has been comment after comment of it being a month to 6-weeks.

We're 3 weeks in.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Russia has been manufacturing their own version based on the Shaheds they purchased back in 22, no?

Probably.

Looks like Ukraine has gotten really good at shooting down Shaheds and their daily drone production is crazy.

[dabrockster]

wait, what are you saying was never stated? The duration of the war? Trump and many of his cabinet repeatedly said this war has a timeline of weeks. Granted, they aren't saying it now that their expectations have been dashed, but still. It was sold as something that would be over soon.

I believe the initial statement was not really said but they were ahead of schedule. But when Trump rambles, he says whatever.. I think it will go longer than they ever expected unless they are arming the people to do the work on the ground. Until there is complete control, this will drag on..

[Bo Diddley]

That’s a stretch. The USA wiping out one of their big strategic allies in the region does not seem like a great thing for Russia.

Perhaps. I'm not saying it's a slam dunk, and I think there is room for debate. I think the advantages for Russia are front loaded as short term gains economically and strategically. If we get regime change, the calculas kills this whole line of reasoning.

Your points are well taken.

[dabrockster]

Muther…. Just one of MANY examples I want every last one of these evil fucks hunted and killed.

• @iranintlenglish Iran’s judiciary said it executed 19-year-old wrestler Saleh Mohammadi on Thursday alongside Mehdi Ghasemi and Saeed Davoudi.

The Islamic Republic accused the three of involvement in the killing of two police officers, identified as Mohammad Ghasemi Homapour and Abbas Asadi, on January 8, 2026.

Iran International previously reported that Mohammadi had been sentenced to death.
He was born on March 11, 2007. In September 2024, competing for Iran’s national freestyle wrestling team, he won bronze at the Saytiyev International Cup in Krasnoyarsk, Russia.

[Shaka]

wait, what are you saying was never stated? The duration of the war? Trump and many of his cabinet repeatedly said this war has a timeline of weeks. Granted, they aren't saying it now that their expectations have been dashed, but still. It was sold as something that would be over soon.

So you're injecting that weeks = one to two weeks? I could just as easily say it's eight weeks.

The only timeline that really matters is that given by the War Powers Resolution of 1973.

[Northwestcoug]

So you're injecting that weeks = one to two weeks? I could just as easily say it's eight weeks.

The only timeline that really matters is that given by the War Powers Resolution of 1973.

No, I'm saying that the war has already lasted 3 weeks. We have 1-3 more weeks to go before the wildly optimistic first predictions are proven wrong.