The 2020 Presidential Election Primary Thread

[beefytee]

I'm optimistic that this will work out. We're seeing that the vast majority of the electorate, including in the democratic party, is not crazy. We've seen a huge shift in the past two weeks and this has created an unreliable illusion that is only temporary. Biden and Warren are imploding. Sanders has benefitted from both those developments. He's picked up some socialists from Warren's losses, but not many. We see that Warren has lost support because most of her support actually were not socialists. Her death spiral started when she tried to explain how she was going to raise the money to fund her socialist proposals--something Sanders has resisted. Sanders's polling numbers in NH didn't improve by much. The biggest boost was that previously the democrat moderate lane appeared to have consolidated around a single candidate, Biden. For whatever reason, Biden's support is dissolving. Thus, this consolidation is, for now, gone because Biden's and some of Warren's support has been distributed between Pete, Amy and Bloomberg (Blomberg's is the only last name I have any confidence in correctly spelling; hence, Pete and Amy).

But everything is fluid. And there are vast numbers of sane, centrist votes for the taking. Many more than are available to Sanders. He and what's left of Warren (presumably the part of her base that is more socialist) totaled only 35% of the NH vote. There is the risk of the Trump phenomenon, that Biden, Bloomberg, Amy, and Pete will continue to split that 65% and Sanders will therefore continue to win with a bare plurality. But I'm not taking this for granted. Trump was stronger than Sanders 2020 in NH, winning by 22%. And the current situation is recent and fluid. Two of the centrists, Pete and Biden, have evident flaws. Pete has had no ability attracting AA and Latino support, and Biden is clearly past his prime as he appears to shriveling up before us. Bloomberg missed the early primaries. I think its' likely 2-3 of the centrists will do very poorly on Super Tuesday and democrats will emerge with a strong moderate frontrunner.

I'm betting on Bloomberg, but I do think the next most likely is Amy. She needs to continue her viscous attacks on Pete, try to do a mercy kill for Biden, and start in on Bloomberg. She needs to gain ground on the moderates, because that's enough, she has to clear them out, and the extremists still solidly with Sanders and Warren are zealot socialists.

538's forecast doesn't give Amy, Pete or Bloomberg much chance of winning it all. Sanders seems to have a pretty commanding path to the nomination:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

[Uncle Ted]

538's forecast doesn't give Amy, Pete or Bloomberg much chance of winning it all. Sanders seems to have a pretty commanding path to the nomination:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...mary-forecast/

Yeah, the Vegas betting odds are on Bernie to win the Dems nomination as well. Bloomberg is rising and Biden is sinking. Warren is about to fall off the board. I hope SU didn't put all his money on Bloomberg.

[Pelado]

538's forecast doesn't give Amy, Pete or Bloomberg much chance of winning it all. Sanders seems to have a pretty commanding path to the nomination:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...mary-forecast/

Kind of funny that "No one" winning the 50%+ of delegates before the convention is in second place, just a single point away from Bernie's 37%.

[myboynoah]

Well, it looks like Bernie beat Mayor Pete by about 1% or so. And Klobuchar did a full body slam on Warren. I wonder if Amy will be Bernie's pick for a running mate.

Big night for Drumpf... It looks like he got more than double the votes in NH than each of the last four incumbent presidents did on their re-election runs:

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LOL@Joe... In all the times he has run for president I don't think he has ever won a state in the primaries. That looks to be continuing. He has a lot in common with his crackhead son: They are both losers.

Take that Brad Parscale disinformation BS and dump it. It's irrelevant for obvious reasons. But it doesn't stop you and other Trumpbots from bowing to the "Death Star" by repeating it.

[SeattleUte]

In the betting odds there’s not much difference between Bernie and Bloomberg. In fact, they are amazingly close for Bloomberg not even in the race yet. These are snapshots. They typically change radically, like in the space of an hour during the last general election.

[Uncle Ted]

Why Bernie Sanders's New Hampshire primary win should terrify you

The Democratic Party belongs to Bernie Sanders now. It’s a stunning statement to write, given that this would have been unthinkable as recently as 2016.

When the Vermont senator and self-described “democratic socialist,” who wasn’t even a registered Democrat, first announced his 2016 primary challenge against establishment favorite Hillary Clinton, he was written off as an outsider, a long-shot, a fringe candidate. Socialist healthcare? Free college? Canceling student debt? These far-left policy proposals were dismissed at the time by Clinton and the Democratic establishment. Now, they’re widely held positions among elected Democrats.

And after Sanders’s successful performance in the Iowa caucuses and narrow victory in New Hampshire, he’s now the Democrats' 2020 front-runner. That’s right: In just three years, Sanders went from a fringe radical to one of the leaders of the Democratic Party. That should terrify every person who believes in capitalism in any form, supports the limits of our constitutional system, and fears unchecked executive power.
[....]
Imagine, for a moment, the nightmare that would be a Sanders administration.

Perhaps it’s socialist darling Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez who gets tapped for commerce secretary, what with her well-demonstrated ample economic knowledge. (She recently cited the imaginary economist “Milton Keynes.”) Maybe Sanders appoints his longtime aide David Sirota to a major economic role — you know, the same aide who praised former Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez’s “economic miracle” and glowingly reviewed the socialist policies that have turned Venezuela into an economic nightmare. And we all know there would be a job in his administration for Sanders’s longtime ally, Elizabeth Warren, who has simply never met a regulation she didn’t like and has a long list of companies she is ready to subdue with federal power.
[...]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/why-bernie-sanderss-new-hampshire-primary-win-should-terrify-you

LOL... Feel the Bern!

[myboynoah]

Carnival Barking Clown

Ha, that's pretty good.

[Uncle Ted]

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Isn't Jeb on Drumpf's cabinet?

[Uncle Ted]

Little Mike didn't smile...

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The dude is no fun.

[myboynoah]

Yeah, that low energy is a legit billionaire. Trump's billions are as fake as his tan.

I can see how Trump and his Trumpers are very afraid of Bloomberg. He is grabbing Trump right where it hurts.

[PaloAltoCougar]

Yeah, that low energy is a legit billionaire. Trump's billions are as fake as his tan.

I can see how Trump and his Trumpers are very afraid of Bloomberg. He is grabbing Trump right where it hurts.

Trump's weird obsession with the looks or height of others (esp. his opponents like Rubio, Fiorina, Bloomberg, etc.) is especially odd given his own physical attributes, including his tan, his hair construction, and the falsification of his height and weight to bring him one pound under "Obese."

I can understand why Bloomberg's Stop and Frisk policy will be targeted by his Dem opponents, but I'd be surprised if it would come up in a Bloomberg general campaign, given Trump's history of housing discrimination complaints and his wanting the death penalty for some innocent black kids. But Bloomberg is certainly more boring than Trump, a trait I would welcome.

[myboynoah]

Trump's weird obsession with the looks or height of others (esp. his opponents like Rubio, Fiorina, Bloomberg, etc.) is especially odd given his own physical attributes, including his tan, his hair construction, and the falsification of his height and weight to bring him one pound under "Obese."

I can understand why Bloomberg's Stop and Frisk policy will be targeted by his Dem opponents, but I'd be surprised if it would come up in a Bloomberg general campaign, given Trump's history of housing discrimination complaints and his wanting the death penalty for some innocent black kids. But Bloomberg is certainly more boring than Trump, a trait I would welcome.

Joe Manchin took Trump on directly over POTUS calling him Munchkin. Manchin was puzzled, noting that he is two inches taller than Trump. He said that sure, Trump is fatter, but Joe is taller.

Crickets from Trump.

[PaloAltoCougar]

Joe Manchin took Trump on directly over POTUS calling him Munchkin. Manchin was puzzled, noting that he is two inches taller than Trump. He said that sure, Trump is fatter, but Joe is taller.

Crickets from Trump.

I'm wondering if Trump has ever mocked Putin or Un (both of whom are shorter than Bloomberg).

[myboynoah]

Sure TrumpRight, it's just about Bernie and Trump.

Trump vs. Sanders is the main event. Everything else is an undercard.

Ha, another TrumpRighter pumping up Bernie. This must be one of the Campaign's top talking points.

How a Biden collapse could benefit Sanders

[imanihonjin]

I'm wondering if Trump has ever mocked Putin or Un (both of whom are shorter than Bloomberg).

Oh man, you have over looked one of the legitimately funny Trump tweets:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...russia-twitter">Embedded Tweet

Not that I condone this type of horrible diplomacy, but ignoring that for a moment, this was pretty good.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/929511061954297857?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E929511061954297857&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vox.com%2F2017%2F11%2F12%2F16639462%2Ftrump-kim-north-korea-russia-twitter