Ukraine - somebody explain to me

[myboynoah]

I don’t know much about military assets but if Russias military is this badly prepared with this shitty of equipment should we really be worried about their nuclear arsenal?

Chinas shit can’t be any better can it?

Im feeling really good about our woke military right now.

Even a 1% success rate would be bad.

lol at the woke military swipe at dumbo Cruz. That's the first thing that came to mind when PAC posted this.

Loved this tweet buried in the thread just posted:

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Slava Ukraini!!!

[fusnik]

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Even a 1% success rate would be bad.

I was under the impression that we had an Iron Dome shrouding America that was virtually impenetrable. I was in DC a couple years back when Rocket Man was launching missiles and the city was in what seemed this weird hyper shut down mode and I mentioned it in a meeting I was in and was swiftly educated by a ‘military specialist’ who told me our system was at best 60% effective against ICBMs.

I’m just not convinced their nuclear missile stockpile can work. Russia seems like a shell of a country.

[myboynoah]

NUTS!

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[Uncle Ted]

I was under the impression that we had an Iron Dome shrouding America that was virtually impenetrable. I was in DC a couple years back when Rocket Man was launching missiles and the city was in what seemed this weird hyper shut down mode and I mentioned it in a meeting I was in and was swiftly educated by a ‘military specialist’ who told me our system was at best 60% effective against ICBMs.

I’m just not convinced their nuclear missile stockpile can work. Russia seems like a shell of a country.

Russia/NKorea/Iran/etc doesn’t even have to penetrate our so called “Iron Dome” to kill a lot of us. They can just do an EMP attack: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/w...ation-will-die

[Moliere]

Looks like Biden is planning on banning Russian oil imports. I'm surprised at the large impact this has had on oil prices, even a year out they are up a bit. Europe can't stop buying Russian oil/gas or else they will starve but I would expect the whole oil market to just shift and adjust accordingly and for prices to not jump as much as they did. Of course, it's early so there's probably some panic so we'll see if the prices stay up.

Btw, no one in the oil industry is happy about the high oil prices...well, maybe some really small players that don't have a long range plan and are just looking to get bought out are happy about it, but no decent sized companies are happy about it. We all know the higher prices go, the more they will come crashing down and will stay down just like they did in 2014. I'm not saying this is the same market as 2014 given the supply/demand differences, but most oil companies would've been happy with oil staying around $70/bbl into the foreseeable future.

[Jeff Lebowski]

It seems like I follow a lot of the same sources on social media as you all, but I'm not sure many of you are following people that are anti-Putin but believe Russia is succeeding at their objective and we are all about to see a result we are going to be sorely disappointed in. Just a couple of names in particular are @GrayConnolly and @billroggio

Sometimes I feel a bit optimistic by hearing all the Ukrainian journalists and 24 hour news pundits that Russia is getting owned and destroyed. That they are demoralized and that a couple is near. But I ultimately default back to being a history undergrad and what I learned in my history of the Slavic people and Cold War courses. For the most part Russian imperialism is supported by the population and will be regardless of who leads the empire. They view war and the value of human life differently than we do in the West. They have a very specific understanding of their "history" and what they are entitled to.

Will all this in mind, most likely everything east of the Dnieper will be consumed and integrated into Russia. The military personnel and equipment dwarf that of Ukraine's. They are willing to sustain large losses because they can replace them. Ukraine can't. They rely more on artillery than boots on the ground. They will level the major population centers and depopulate them (mostly by allowing refugees to go west. Less mouths for them to feed and less resistance). They will then focus on making the west part of Ukraine a failed state. What's left of the country may be able to resist this and pull themselves together enough to prosper and I hope they do. If they are lucky they'll get to keep Odessa. Putin will take this as a win. I think believing Ukraine can push out the invaders or that the Russians will collapse before they take half the country just isn't likely. I'm no expert though and I pray every night that I'm wrong. I'm just a bit concerned that we are buying a bit too much into the Ukrainian rose colored glasses.

You are absolutely right. This is the most likely scenario. But with the inevitable insurgency and the collapse of the russian economy, I think russia loses in the long run.

[Moliere]

You are absolutely right. This is the most likely scenario. But with the inevitable insurgency and the collapse of the russian economy, I think russia loses in the long run.

The long range impact will also be a social one as well. My kids never knew Russian aggression like I did growing up in the cold war. Now they see it everyday on TikTok and Twitter and are astounded at the aggression and loss of innocent life at the hands of a fascist dictator. They now feel the same as I do about Russia or maybe even worse about it. In a world that is connected as we are today, this is going to be detrimental to Russia for a long, long time as we now have a whole new generation that is feeling the sting of the Cold War.

[fusnik]

You are absolutely right. This is the most likely scenario. But with the inevitable insurgency and the collapse of the russian economy, I think russia loses in the long run.

I’m concerned that the sanctions will be so brutal on the everyday Russian that 15 years from now we will have pre WW2 Nazi German 2.0 but this time coupled with Xi’s psycho kid and 5k nukes.

I also assume the post pandemic malaise that so many feel will cycle this story quicker than we anticipate. Like, it sucks 10k civilians will be dead in a couple weeks but I have a Paris trip and Hawaiian trip and a London trip scheduled over the next 2 months.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I’m concerned that the sanctions will be so brutal on the everyday Russian that 15 years from now we will have pre WW2 Nazi German 2.0 but this time coupled with Xi’s psycho kid and 5k nukes.

I also assume the post pandemic malaise that so many feel will cycle this story quicker than we anticipate. Like, it sucks 10k civilians will be dead in a couple weeks but I have a Paris trip and Hawaiian trip and a London trip scheduled over the next 2 months.

I hope not. This feels different. I hope the resolve lasts.

[USUC]

I hope not. This feels different. I hope the resolve lasts.

This most certainly is different. The repercussions of this are being felt immediately by everyone. This is such a pivotal point in history

Spoiler for language:

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My parents had me when they were essentially middle age. My grandparents were all born between 1900 - 1905. As a kid I listened to stories by them about living through WWI, the Spanish flu pandemic, WWII, and the beginning of the Cold War. It was so crazy to me to hear this. The modern world I grew up in made it seem like this stuff was impossible. But here we are. It may not be as dramatic as the first half of the 20th century but we are living through an momentous shift in history that will have long lasting consequences. Public health, warfare, and energy policy has been turned upside down. It s a new world.

[Bo Diddley]

This most certainly is different. The repercussions of this are being felt immediately by everyone. This is such a pivotal point in history

Spoiler for language:

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My parents had me when they were essentially middle age. My grandparents were all born between 1900 - 1905. As a kid I listened to stories by them about living through WWI, the Spanish flu pandemic, WWII, and the beginning of the Cold War. It was so crazy to me to hear this. The modern world I grew up in made it seem like this stuff was impossible. But here we are. It may not be as dramatic as the first half of the 20th century but we are living through an momentous shift in history that will have long lasting consequences. Public health, warfare, and energy policy has been turned upside down. It s a new world.

Agreed.

And I do have a trip to London this summer, and it's gonna suck how much I'll pay for gas petrol, but it's only money.

[Moliere]

Agreed.

And I do have a trip to London this summer, and it's gonna suck how much I'll pay for gas petrol, but it's only money.

I've got a Paris and Italy trip planned this summer. I wonder if I'll see Joy Behar over there...

[Jeff Lebowski]

This is big news.

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[Bo Diddley]

This is big news.

That is so awesome. Load them up with munitions so their flight into Ukraine also takes out a good chunk of Russian assets.

[Commando]

I know anything is better than nothing, but as a non-military literate person I ought to ask: Are those good fighter jets?