The 2016 Presidential Election Trainwreck

[USUC]

I haven't decided who I'm voting for. I didn't read Goat's post as an endorsement of Trump, but rather an explanation of the appeal. It's not about racism. The working class have felt like they don't have a home since the Democrats abandoned them in 1994 with the passage of NAFTA. Trump talks about issues the working man is concerned about.

Trump's support is an amalgamation of several "angry" groups. You do have the blue collar workers who have seen their jobs lost due to free trade agreements, but they are just a fraction of his support. You have the xenophobes, anti-intellectuals, authoritarians, and the people who just like to see things burn. In my opinion, Trump's rise to power is the result of the anti-intellectualism that has run rampant in the GOP for a while. As a result, the base is completely uneducated to the underlying philosophy and susceptible to arguments based solely on emotion.

[BlueK]

I thought this was interesting about Trump's real chances of winning the nomination. Maybe a little too hopeful for a non-trump guy, but he uses some sound reasoning, I think.

http://douthat.blogs.nytimes.com/201...defined&assetT

[BlueK]

Trump's support is an amalgamation of several "angry" groups. You do have the blue collar workers who have seen their jobs lost due to free trade agreements, but they are just a fraction of his support. You have the xenophobes, anti-intellectuals, authoritarians, and the people who just like to see things burn. In my opinion, Trump's rise to power is the result of the anti-intellectualism that has run rampant in the GOP for a while. As a result, the base is completely uneducated to the underlying philosophy and susceptible to arguments based solely on emotion.

Good summary. I agree.

[PaloAltoCougar]

...
We need HClinton to get indicted and for Joe to ride in and save the day.

I thought about this throughout my dental hygenist appointment with the Marquess de Sade, and this may actually be my preferred result in the absence of a Kasich Ohio primary win. The indictment ends Hillary's political career, and lovable Joe steps in for a very entertaining Biden-Trump battle. Biden wins and actually works better with a GOP Congress than Obama ever did. Citing age among other things, Joe steps down after one term and Elizabeth Warren duels with Paul Ryan for the Presidency in 2020. And I imagined all this without the benefit of anesthesia.

[USUC]

Good summary. I agree.

As an aside, I do believe free trade agreements are (and have been) successful and are a net gain for society. Other factors also play into blue collar jobs being lost/moved overseas (automation, technical advances, unreasonable tax rates, regulation, etc.). The failure of the Republican party to explain this is part of the problem.

[Uncle Ted]

I thought this was interesting about Trump's real chances of winning the nomination. Maybe a little too hopeful for a non-trump guy, but he uses some sound reasoning, I think.

http://douthat.blogs.nytimes.com/201...defined&assetT

Rubio is still getting killed by Trump in Florida in the latest CNN/ORC poll: 40% to 24%. And Kasich is also behind in Ohio: 41% to 35%. http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-g...io-poll-220481

If these guys were smart they would divide up and conquer: Rubio campaigning hard in FL, Kasich in Ohio and Illinois, and Cruz in Missouri and North Carolina. They are not smart so I don't expect anything like this to happen.

If I had to guess, it will be a three man race after next Tuesday. It seems Little Rubio won't survive Florida. That will most likely put a serious blemish in his political career.

Given that RMoney's "big announcement" did nothing to slow down Trump shows how irrelevant (outside of mormontopia) he has become.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

I thought this was interesting about Trump's real chances of winning the nomination. Maybe a little too hopeful for a non-trump guy, but he uses some sound reasoning, I think.

http://douthat.blogs.nytimes.com/201...defined&assetT

Trump only has 100 more delegates than Ted Cruz. He has to win about 800 delegates out of around 1450 remaining. He's got a lot more closed primaries to deal with now and he's pretty much exhausted his supply of hillbilly states that love him so much.

On the other hand, there are a lot of northeastern states left and ostensibly they will go for Trump. But I think Cruz will do better than Trump on the West Coast, the intermountain west and the remainder of the midwest (in the closed primaries). Cruz has to get around 900 of those delegates and that will be tough to achieve.

The open convention scenario is looking more possible all the time.

[BlueK]

Trump is bringing millions of people into the party! But by radically rewriting several GOP positions of the last 35 years to do it, how many Republicans is he pushing out? Or, how many of these millions will actually go right back to the dems as soon as Trump is no longer a factor. Also, I see Trump actually getting along better with democrat members of congress than with a lot of the Republicans. There is a reason even Trump is seeing a potential difficult relationship ahead with Paul Ryan who is very unlikely to suddenly embrace most of Trump's traditionally very un-republican ideas. I just don't see Trump and a Republican congress getting along well.

I will add that Up and down across all issues and philosophies it's the Libertarians who come closest to my views. If Trumpism ends up taking over the GOP where there is no appreciable difference on economics with the dems, then I have say I will fit better with the democrats if choosing only between those two.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Trump's support is an amalgamation of several "angry" groups. You do have the blue collar workers who have seen their jobs lost due to free trade agreements, but they are just a fraction of his support. You have the xenophobes, anti-intellectuals, authoritarians, and the people who just like to see things burn. In my opinion, Trump's rise to power is the result of the anti-intellectualism that has run rampant in the GOP for a while. As a result, the base is completely uneducated to the underlying philosophy and susceptible to arguments based solely on emotion.

Bingo.

[BlueK]

Trump only has 100 more delegates than Ted Cruz. He has to win about 800 delegates out of around 1450 remaining. He's got a lot more closed primaries to deal with now and he's pretty much exhausted his supply of hillbilly states that love him so much.

On the other hand, there are a lot of northeastern states left and ostensibly they will go for Trump. But I think Cruz will do better than Trump on the West Coast, the intermountain west and the remainder of the midwest (in the closed primaries). Cruz has to get around 900 of those delegates and that will be tough to achieve.

The open convention scenario is looking more possible all the time.

Geez, I hope you're right. Trump scares the crap out of me. Maybe much of his nonsense wouldn't be possible to do, but I can see several of his very unsound economic ideas he's thrown out there having a decent chance of being pushed through using mostly democrat congressional votes. And that's where he can do the most damage the fastest. Be prepared for higher taxes and a slow economy. And yes, I know a lot of people said that about Obama, but the main difference is that Obama has no way of getting the congress to do anything he wants. Trump being a "republican" president with the worst of traditional democrat economic policies is far more likely to get his ideas through with democrat votes and just a handful of republicans who will back him up just because of the (R) by his name and no other reason.

[Northwestcoug]

Rubio regrets his stint as insult comedian. Says he wouldn't do it if he again if he had the chance.

Nice try, champ. You tried it because nothing else was working. It didn't either.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016...gainst-n535236

[Jeff Lebowski]

Rubio regrets his stint as insult comedian. Says he wouldn't do it if he again if he had the chance.

Nice try, champ. You tried it because nothing else was working. It didn't either.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016...gainst-n535236

So Trump can get away with murder, but Rubio acts like Trump for a few days and it destroys his presidency.

Nice job, America.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Rubio regrets his stint as insult comedian. Says he wouldn't do it if he again if he had the chance.

Nice try, champ. You tried it because nothing else was working. It didn't either.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016...gainst-n535236

I think his criticism of Trump helped, it just didn't really help Rubio.

They should have started mocking Trump long ago.

[Uncle Ted]

So Trump can get away with murder, but Rubio acts like Trump for a few days and it destroys his presidency.

Nice job, America.

It is amazing that on top of all the school yard trash talk that he can get away with not showing up to CPAC and skipping the FOX news debate... And he is still kicking everyone's butt in Florida.

This wasn't the only debate that Trump refused to participate in: http://www.mediaite.com/tv/fox-news-...mp-backed-out/

(Trump may also suffer from a lack of balls.)

[PaloAltoCougar]

Rubio regrets his stint as insult comedian. Says he wouldn't do it if he again if he had the chance.

Nice try, champ. You tried it because nothing else was working. It didn't either.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016...gainst-n535236

That was a major miscalculation by Rubio. By stooping to Trump's level (that of a petulant 15 year-old), it made Rubio looked like a kid, not a mature commander-in-chief. Trump gets away with this but the callow Rubio can't. His digs at Trump sounded like those of a kid. Rubio blew it by not going in the opposite direction.