The 2012 Republican Primary thread, early edition

[Jacob]

Classic post hoc.

Yep. It's politics. Obama did it to Bush, now the republican will do it to Obama. It often seems to work quite well.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

You really don't get the implication? All was well at Allentown Metalworks before Obama became president, then he became president and everybody started losing their job. I doubt most people will need the connection explained to them.

The clip he showed was weak. I'm sure the connection isn't lost on anyone, it's just the connection doesn't particularly resonate. Obama happens to be President when a steel mill closes, fine. Which of Obama's policies led to the steel mill closing or has Obama generally led the country in the wrong direction -- this is the question the ad should be posing and answering.

What Romney's trying to show is that Obama has been ineffective. But simply showing Obama on the scene at a steel mill that happened to later close down without any effective insinuation doesn't make for a great ad.

[Flattop]

What's Mitt using against Obama in this ad? All that we hear Obama say is something like "It's nice to be back in Pennsylvania, I just talked to some workers at the Allentown Metal Works." So, the steel mill closed down, what does that have to do with the clip of Obama in the ad besides the fact that Obama happened to make an appearance at the mill at some point in time?

"It's nice to be nice to the nice."

[RobinFinderson]

Yep. It's politics. Obama did it to Bush, now the republican will do it to Obama. It often seems to work quite well.

Then to answer CMBF's question, there IS NO CONNECTION, but 'most people' won't need that explained to them because they are susceptible to this kind of argument. Another way to interpret this -- Mitt Romney tries to win the 'susceptible to terrible logic' crowd.

[il Padrino Ute]

What's Mitt using against Obama in this ad? All that we hear Obama say is something like "It's nice to be back in Pennsylvania, I just talked to some workers at the Allentown Metal Works." So, the steel mill closed down, what does that have to do with the clip of Obama in the ad besides the fact that Obama happened to make an appearance at the mill at some point in time?

What I got out of the ad was that one year ago, Obama was talking about coming from Allentown Metal Works, where there were workers. Now, there are no workers and it's a result of his policies.

Perhaps I see more in the ad than you do because I think Obama is an incompetent buffoon who has absolutely no idea what he is doing.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

What I got out of the ad was that one year ago, Obama was talking about coming from Allentown Metal Works, where there were workers. Now, there are no workers and it's a result of his policies.

Perhaps I see more in the ad than you do because I think Obama is an incompetent buffoon who has absolutely no idea what he is doing.

I also think Obama, and the Democratic Party in general, is clueless about how to spur economic growth. In fact, doing nothing is far better than the something the Democrats have done. But I think the ad is weak.

Here are some connected points that I would try to get across in a series of ads:

1. Obama and the Democrats in general don't understand what creates jobs in this country because few of them have ever had to balance an operating account, grow a business and understand the conditions necessary to hire new people. Being a community organizer doesn't exactly give someone the life experience necessary to understand these concepts. In fact, I'd say being a community organizer gives someone just about the worst possible experience in this regard.

2. Obama has implemented policies that are either job killers or inhibit job growth. This has happened for two reasons-- A) Obama doesn't understand why and how jobs are created (related to point 1 above); and B) Obama is beholden to special interests that are a drain on job growth and the economy in general (the community organizing bullshitters, unions, trial lawyers, impossible to please environmentalists).

[Jacob]

I also think Obama, and the Democratic Party in general, is clueless about how to spur economic growth. In fact, doing nothing is far better than the something the Democrats have done. But I think the ad is weak.

Here are some connected points that I would try to get across in a series of ads:

1. Obama and the Democrats in general don't understand what creates jobs in this country because few of them have ever had to balance an operating account, grow a business and understand the conditions necessary to hire new people. Being a community organizer doesn't exactly give someone the life experience necessary to understand these concepts. In fact, I'd say being a community organizer gives someone just about the worst possible experience in this regard.

2. Obama has implemented policies that are either job killers or inhibit job growth. This has happened for two reasons-- A) Obama doesn't understand why and how jobs are created (related to point 1 above); and B) Obama is beholden to special interests that are a drain on job growth and the economy in general (the community organizing bullshitters, unions, trial lawyers, impossible to please environmentalists).

The ad seems to hit both points in a way that is simple and memorable. You don't made short substantive ads.

[il Padrino Ute]

I also think Obama, and the Democratic Party in general, is clueless about how to spur economic growth. In fact, doing nothing is far better than the something the Democrats have done. But I think the ad is weak.

Here are some connected points that I would try to get across in a series of ads:

1. Obama and the Democrats in general don't understand what creates jobs in this country because few of them have ever had to balance an operating account, grow a business and understand the conditions necessary to hire new people. Being a community organizer doesn't exactly give someone the life experience necessary to understand these concepts. In fact, I'd say being a community organizer gives someone just about the worst possible experience in this regard.

2. Obama has implemented policies that are either job killers or inhibit job growth. This has happened for two reasons-- A) Obama doesn't understand why and how jobs are created (related to point 1 above); and B) Obama is beholden to special interests that are a drain on job growth and the economy in general (the community organizing bullshitters, unions, trial lawyers, impossible to please environmentalists).

Ok, I'm with you now and see why you say it's weak. I just used my hatred of Obama's policies to fill in the blanks.

The Rs need to continually hammer these points until election day and ignore any of the inevitable cries from the left of racism that will surely come out. The only effective way to get a point across to the public is constant harping about it. The Ds are much better at this, mostly because they are able to claim racism, misogyny and other PC talking points on their side.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

The ad seems to hit both points in a way that is simple and memorable. You don't made short substantive ads.

Romney's ad is 40 seconds long. This ad is one minute long and 20 seconds could easily be excised off of it.

Here are the loaded words/phrases/sentences:

"Each child is born with a $30,000 share of the runaway national debt."

"The Government is taking over choices we made in life."

"His policies were a grand experiment, policies that failed." (with a little bit of context, this conclusory statement is powerful; namely, the grand experiment has led to centralized decision making that has produced runaway debt and high unemployment).

[YOUTUBE]_YXqf_6ug54[/YOUTUBE]

[happyone]

The field is not set yet - Thad McCotter to throw his hat into the ring

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/erikajohnsen/2011/07/01/thad_mccotter_jumps_into_the_race

Who?

I hadn't heard anything about this possiblity.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

CNN released polls showing Obama vs. the three leading Republicans, Romney, Perry and Bachmann.

Not surprisingly, Romney does the best of all of them. Cumulatively, Romney is behind Obama by about 3 points, though the polls stretch back a month and the last couple weeks have been miserable for Obama to say the least.

Meanwhile, Rick Perry is over 10 points behind cumulatively and Bachmann is 11 points behind. However, Perry is 5 points behind in the CNN poll and Bachmann is 6 behind.

I'm not sure what to make of Perry's chances against Obama. I know he will be a very tough primary opponent for Romney. I'm not sure if it will be Romney or Perry who comes out. But I do think that Romney would be a better national candidate than Perry. Basically, mormons and Romney aren't so hated that it puts the South up for grabs. None of the states McCain carried will flip over to Obama due to the Mormon factor. Meanwhile, I think Obama's term itself will put Virginia, Indiana and North Carolina back in the GOP's column. So, the GOP needs to nominate the guy who can better compete in Colorado, Ohio, Nevada and Florida (i.e. states Bush won in 2004 that flipped to Obama that may or not flip back to the GOP depending on the candidate). I think Romney would also be able to take the fight to Obama in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Perry won't be able to do this.

[Babs]

CNN released polls showing Obama vs. the three leading Republicans, Romney, Perry and Bachmann.

Not surprisingly, Romney does the best of all of them. Cumulatively, Romney is behind Obama by about 3 points, though the polls stretch back a month and the last couple weeks have been miserable for Obama to say the least.

Meanwhile, Rick Perry is over 10 points behind cumulatively and Bachmann is 11 points behind. However, Perry is 5 points behind in the CNN poll and Bachmann is 6 behind.

Bear in mind that Perry was largely unknown a month ago, when the poll started, and is trending up fast. In shorter-term polling, Romney was twenty points down a month ago, ten points down two weeks ago, and has been only a few points down to Obama in the last few days (I call this the Jesus bounce).

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Bear in mind that Perry was largely unknown a month ago, when the poll started, and is trending up fast. In shorter-term polling, Romney was twenty points down a month ago, ten points down two weeks ago, and has been only a few points down to Obama in the last few days (I call this the Jesus bounce).

True, and I thought about that but forgot to mention it. Perry is still unknown.

I'm just worried about people drawing a connection between Perry and Bush once they do begin to get to know him. With that said, apparently Perry is the more engaging and he has strengths that Romney will never have on the retail politics side of things.

[Babs]

True, and I thought about that but forgot to mention it. Perry is still unknown.

I'm just worried about people drawing a connection between Perry and Bush once they do begin to get to know him.

My guess is that right now people are starting to think that maybe Bush wasn't so bad, after all.

[LA Ute]

True, and I thought about that but forgot to mention it. Perry is still unknown.

I'm just worried about people drawing a connection between Perry and Bush once they do begin to get to know him. With that said, apparently Perry is the more engaging and he has strengths that Romney will never have on the retail politics side of things.

Very likely true. I really wonder, however, if the USA's voters are ready for another Texan with a bit of a swagger who loudly loves Jesus. GOP primary voters probably are. Then again, Republicans have their history of liking candidates who have run before and are thoroughly vetted. (Reagan, Dole, Bush I, McCain.) That dynamic favors Romney. It's going to be interesting. As one who'd love to see Obama defeated, I'm interested in whether the Tea Party element will produce an ideologically acceptable candidate who can't win. They managed to do that in 2 or 3 senate races in 2010. Not sure they have the clout to do that in a presidential nominating race. We'll see.