The 2012 Republican Primary thread, early edition

[oxcoug]

I noted that there's lots of primary chatter on various threads, thought there might as well be on thread to rule them all.....

Haley Barbour is out.

This gives me hope on one front: Mitch Daniels is a stronger bet to be in (Barbour and Daniels are close friends and were unlikely to both get in the game). Daniels is one of a couple of candidates I cld vote for w/o vomiting on myself. I prefer him as a VP candidate as I think he's more viable there, but in the current circumstances it's exactly his boring competence that America needs.

That said - I'm all for drafting Paul Ryan.

[happyone]

I still haven't seen anyone that I really really support. Of the people in or nearly in right now, the least objectionable for me are either Pawlenty or Daniels - There was an article on RCP talking about him getting closer to getting in.

People I really have problems with

Trump - I really hope he is not serious and this is a publicity stunt
Palin - too polarizing, hasn't done much to dispel the sterotypes about her
Huckabee - rubs me the wrong way
Gingrich - too much of a policy wonk and he has personal issues, at least two extramartial affiars that just might make him unacceptable to the social conservatives

[BigFatMeanie]

Draft Christie!

[oxcoug]

Draft Christie!

I think Christie and Ryan wld be a great ticket - they'd look like Abbot and Costello.

In seriousness - the real challenge w/ Christie is he has committed himself so openly and aggressively to NOT running that it would create a very visible integrity question if he did. His only out at this point, in my view, is if he gets nominated as the VP. Which could be a big win for the GOP.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

I noted that there's lots of primary chatter on various threads, thought there might as well be on thread to rule them all.....

Haley Barbour is out.

This gives me hope on one front: Mitch Daniels is a stronger bet to be in (Barbour and Daniels are close friends and were unlikely to both get in the game). Daniels is one of a couple of candidates I cld vote for w/o vomiting on myself. I prefer him as a VP candidate as I think he's more viable there, but in the current circumstances it's exactly his boring competence that America needs.

That said - I'm all for drafting Paul Ryan.

I would like Paul Ryan to run because it sets him up for 2016.

Also Daniels, IMO, would be a very good counterweight to a President who appears increasingly incompetent and people are correspondingly increasingly uncomfortable with Obama. I don't really buy into the "he can't connect with the people" BS. I'm not sure if W. really connected with people that much better than either Gore or Kerry. Bush 41 didn't connect with people better than Dukakis. I think 2012 could be an election when people are in the mood to throw out the snake oil salesmen in favor of the guy who appears as if he has a clue on how to run things. The bigger problem than "not being able to connect" is the fact that he's short.

Christie probably made the correct move in that he just got elected in early 2010. It's too early and I think the experience factor would drill him in the primaries. Ryan or Christie could be the running mate.

[oxcoug]

I would like Paul Ryan to run because it sets him up for 2016.

Also Daniels, IMO, would be a very good counterweight to a President who appears increasingly incompetent and people are correspondingly increasingly uncomfortable with Obama. I don't really buy into the "he can't connect with the people" BS. I'm not sure if W. really connected with people that much better than either Gore or Kerry. Bush 41 didn't connect with people better than Dukakis. I think 2012 could be an election when people are in the mood to throw out the snake oil salesmen in favor of the guy who appears as if he has a clue on how to run things. The bigger problem than "not being able to connect" is the fact that he's short.

Christie probably made the correct move in that he just got elected in early 2010. It's too early and I think the experience factor would drill him in the primaries. Ryan or Christie could be the running mate.

I had this superficial musing abt Daniels today -

How much does being 5'7 impact people's presidential perceptions? OK, 5'7 and bald....

I know it shldn't matter but I worry about those perception things with candidates. Because not everyone is totally anchored in the things that matter like most of the members of CUF.

[il Padrino Ute]

I had this superficial musing abt Daniels today -

How much does being 5'7 impact people's presidential perceptions? OK, 5'7 and bald....

I know it shldn't matter but I worry about those perception things with candidates. Because not everyone is totally anchored in the things that matter like most of the members of CUF.

Has there ever been a POTUS that was under 6'? It seems that the unfortunate perception is that a taller candidate is more presidential looking than a shorter candidate.

[RobinFinderson]

I had this superficial musing abt Daniels today -

How much does being 5'7 impact people's presidential perceptions? OK, 5'7 and bald....

I know it shldn't matter but I worry about those perception things with candidates. Because not everyone is totally anchored in the things that matter like most of the members of CUF.

At 5'7" he would be equal in height to:

John Adams and William McKinley

He would be taller than:

Benjamin Harrison 5'6"
Martin Van Buren 5'6"
&
Stumpy J. Madison 5'4"

Edit: The shortest 'modern' president was Harry Truman, at 5'9". Carter was 5'9-1/2".

[Sleeping in EQ]

A few musings from a guy who doesn't follow the horse race closely:

1. Palin wants to play spoiler. She'll never get elected, but she and her followers can ruin an aspiring GOP candidate if they want to.

2. Daniels does not have what it takes to end Barack al Husseion Obama's Black Liberation Theocracy. Social conservatives are wary of his proposed truce, he has no rock star power, and the talk radio folks are already suspicious of him. I've heard Tea Party types express concern that he won't take on the unions with sufficient zealousness. That's too much to balance to get the nomination.

3. Trump is just an egotistical rich guy with bad hair. If the GOP nominates him, they will lose badly.

4. When Mitt picks his moment, he needs to roll out rhetoric on the economy. It's way too early for a "plan," but that's his ticket. I think he's the GOP's best hope, even though I hate what church will be like for the next couple of years.

5. Huckabee will have a tough time running the Tea Party gauntlet, but will have support in Jesus land. If he can get the nomination, he can give Obama a run for his money.

[happyone]

I had this superficial musing abt Daniels today -

How much does being 5'7 impact people's presidential perceptions? OK, 5'7 and bald.... I know it shldn't matter but I worry about those perception things with candidates. Because not everyone is totally anchored in the things that matter like most of the members of CUF.

I have absolutely no problem with 5'7" bald guys. Now if he was slightly pudgy he would really have my vote

[Color Me Badd Fan]

A few musings from a guy who doesn't follow the horse race closely:

1. Palin wants to play spoiler. She'll never get elected, but she and her followers can ruin an aspiring GOP candidate if they want to.

2. Daniels does not have what it takes to end Barack al Husseion Obama's Black Liberation Theocracy. Social conservatives are wary of his proposed truce, he has no rock star power, and the talk radio folks are already suspicious of him. I've heard Tea Party types express concern that he won't take on the unions with sufficient zealousness. That's too much to balance to get the nomination.

3. Trump is just an egotistical rich guy with bad hair. If the GOP nominates him, they will lose badly.

4. When Mitt picks his moment, he needs to roll out rhetoric on the economy. It's way too early for a "plan," but that's his ticket. I think he's the GOP's best hope, even though I hate what church will be like for the next couple of years.

5. Huckabee will have a tough time running the Tea Party gauntlet, but will have support in Jesus land. If he can get the nomination, he can give Obama a run for his money.

I actually think Huckabee could beat Obama (I still give Obama a better than 50% shot) and I think the Tea Party types will be fine with him. Huckabee is a very gifted orator and politician (there must be something in the water in Arkansas). Unfortunately for him, one of his kids did some oddball stuff relating to animal mutilation while Huckabee was the governor and Huckabee supposedly tried to influence the investigation.

In the end it's going to be a nasty primary between Huckabee and Romney. I've always thought that Romney would fare better in a general election than the primary, the primary is the sticking point for him. If you look at the demographics of the states that went for Obama in 08 that had gone for Bush in 04, I think Romney would do well in them (Iowa, maybe not) in addition to putting states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin more into play.

[NorthwestUteFan]

In the end it's going to be a nasty primary between Huckabee and Romney. I've always thought that Romney would fare better in a general election than the primary, the primary is the sticking point for him.

I agree on the Primary vs. General for Romney. So long as he can convince to leave the religion card in the deck he could walk away with the General. He is more of a centrist than most of the other potential candidates, and will shock and awe people in a debate (particularly if the economy is still in the crapper).

However he will never survive a Primary. I still maintain that he would have given Obama a much tougher contest than the perpetual war drum-banging (now supporting a Libya surge), illegal immigrant-naturalizing (McCain-Kennedy), free speech-limiting (McCain-Feingold), CO2 cap-and-trader (McCain-Lieberman) John McCain*, and that Huckabee stuck around solely to destroy Romney's chances to come from behind.

That said, there is NO way a Republican could have won in 2008. I am still amazed the total difference in votes was ~5 million.

*McCain was eerily similar to the way Obama has governed in all ways, with the sole exception being certain portions of the healthcare.

Ron Paul is a good guy, says many of the right things, but is honestly far too old and definitely too short to win a general. He would get ~15% in a General
election.

I like Trump. He is too polarizing to survive the primary, but is definitely a "man of the people". He walks into a company and says "Hi!" to everybody from the board members to the janitors, remembers the secretaries' names, and seems to be genuinely content to be around people. People forget that he was a big Reagan warrior in '79, was a major fundraiser at a time when talking up a Republican made one a pariah amongst Manhattan's Beautiful People. He also brings his talking points down from the typical wonkish language to a language which everyone can easily understand (he generally avoids esoteric language).

Just for kicks, I would like to see somebody pair with Herman Cain as a VP. He is a truly outstanding candidate, a complete and total Washington outsider with significant business experience. He would be a perfect foil to Romney. The only thing I can see that would hamper him with Tea Party types is he used to be on the Fed Reserve board.

[YOUTUBE]HdLGKRBJ_0E[/YOUTUBE]

[RobinFinderson]

If Ron Paul win's the GOP nomination, he will win over Obama.

What we have here is the 'perfect storm' to propel Paul to victory.

Millions of progressives would vote for Paul, just to get us out of the wars.

The Tea Baggers will vote for Paul 100%.

The GOP will vote for Paul 95%.

Centrists will vote for Paul 45%.

That adds up to a win.

[Maximus]

Just for kicks, I would like to see somebody pair with Herman Cain as a VP. He is a truly outstanding candidate, a complete and total Washington outsider with significant business experience. He would be a perfect foil to Romney. The only thing I can see that would hamper him with Tea Party types is he used to be on the Fed Reserve board.

http://blogs.ajc.com/jay-bookman-blo...ms-need-apply/

[Jacob]

[YOUTUBE]HdLGKRBJ_0E[/YOUTUBE]

Wow. Bill Clinton, in that clip come across as much smarter, a better "orator", and a much better politician than Obama.

Herman Cain was pretty boring, even though I'm sure I agree with his overall point.