The 2012 Republican Primary thread, early edition

[Viking]

Look at all the delegate counts, Romney has a majority of the delegates. There's no reason to think that won't continue. Romney wins basically all of the winner take all contests and then picks up a chunk of delegates in states that he loses. The delegate counts bear that out. The pundits on the left and right refuse to acknowledge this.

First rule of markets: the market is stupid

[myboynoah]

Howard Fineman is an idiot. On MSNBC now talking about how Santorum won three diverse states. What a dope.

[Pelado]

Mitt wins Idaho! Thanks, Lost Student and Pelado!

I do what I can.

OK, CNN now making the point as to why Rambam might be really wrong: ROmney is winning centrist, non-Republican strongholds and losing conservative strongholds.

Gloria seemed to think that was a really important point - ignoring the fact that, in addition to the urban support, Romney will also get most of the rural vote in a general election.

What's disingenuous about the "panels" is that Romney is DOMINATING the centrist republican vote. This bodes very poorly for Obama's blue dog/Reagan democrats hopes. This has been developing very consistently over the past few primaries.

If the evangelicals decide that they hate Obama more than Romney and the economy is simply "ok", not accelerating, Romney could win it close.

Similar sentiment - in the general, Romney will win the very conservative vote, but he will outperform the other GOP candidates among the centrist voters that went Obama in 2008.

Santo is going to bust out a new tactic and criticize Mitt Romney for the health care plan he implemented while governor of Massachusetts.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/rosiegray/he...ewest-bludgeon

New?

Using her own words, she'll never close an open door. She's nothing more than an opportunist.

It's likely just an attempt to prolong her "15 minutes" so that Fox will continue to pay her the big bucks to speak on issues nobody should be asking her about.

[FMCoug]

Regarding the anti-Mormon bias and Santorum's wins, I was actually encouraged by the numbers in Oklahoma and Tennessee. Having lived there and knowing how hard core Bible Belt it is, it could have been much worse. I would not be surprised at wins in the double-digits. Maybe for a lot of them Santorum's Catholicism cancels out some of the Mormonism ... who knows.

[Pelado]

Romney wins Alaska - currently at 33% with 85% reporting.

[myboynoah]

So, CNN has called Alaska for Mitt.

Mitt wins 6 tonight (7 if you count Wyo) and over half the delegates and comes back from being way down in Ohio over the past two weeks.
Santorum wins 3 that he was expected to win
The angry fat hobbit wins 1 that he was expected to win

Yet the headlines are that Mitt can't seal the deal.

[Commando]

So, CNN has called Alaska for Mitt.

Mitt wins 6 tonight (7 if you count Wyo) and over half the delegates and comes back from being way down in Ohio over the past two weeks.
Santorum wins 3 that he was expected to win
The angry fat hobbit wins 1 that he was expected to win

Yet the headlines are that Mitt can't seal the deal.

Funny how Santorum's trumpeting that he was outspent by who knows how much.. blah blah blah.. Anyone asking him why his campaign is so woefully underfunded and unorganized?

[TexTechCoug]

Sarah Palin is as awful as it gets. It's such a contrast when they put her on and then switch over to the All-Star panel. It's like they should be playing Yakkety Sax when she's speaking.

This GOP primary has been a lesson in selfishness and narcissism. Palin doesn't care about the party, she is an intellectual lightweight who is enriching herself at any cost. Newt Gingrich remains in the race only because it gives him an opportunity to hear himself pontificate.

If any of them had any sense, or cared about the outcome of the general election, they would coalesce behind the only viable candidate, but that is not their goal.

Palin is a dolt, plain and simple.

[dabrockster]

Woke up this morning to great news!! I went to bed roughly 10 PM pissed off by the idiots of Ohio thinking Santo was going to win..

Glad to see Romney pulled in the "3 C's" (And Dayton. Shout out to YO..)


But what the hell with Rural Ohio all going to Santo.. Stupid people...

Here is a geographical Map by county..

Purple to Santo.
Yellow to Romney.

[Moliere]

Woke up this morning to great news!! I went to bed roughly 10 PM pissed off by the idiots of Ohio thinking Santo was going to win..

Glad to see Romney pulled in the "3 C's" (And Dayton. Shout out to YO..)


But what the hell with Rural Ohio all going to Santo.. Stupid people...

Here is a geographical Map by county..

Purple to Santo.
Yellow to Romney.

The lower educated, less affluent, more evangelical people live in rural areas throughout the country and those are the demographics of Santorum's support. Romney wins the intelligent vote everytime, which is something of which he should be proud. Needleneck Wankers for Romney!

[Moliere]

Wow, Romney really closed that gap. Ohio is Santorum's backyard so a win there and Santorum is seriously hurting. I also saw a poll where Romney has now taken the lead in Washington.

I'm predicting Super Tuesday goes as follows (barring any stupid gaffes from Romney):

Idaho - lock for Romney
Massachusetts - lock for Romney
Vermont - lock for Romney
Virginia - lock for Romney
Alaska - Romney
North Dakota - Romney
Georgia - lock for Gingrich
Oklahoma - lock for Santorum (home of the evangelicals)
Tennessee - Santorum
Ohio - toss up but I think Romney by a slim margin

Ohio would be a huge get for Romney, whcih is why he's pushing hard there. It's a split proportional/winner-take-all state, so winning the popular vote gives 48 delegates but then some other delegates can be awarded proportionally. If he gets the popular vote and those 48 delegates, that would be huge.

Looks like I only missed on North Dakota, but really, when has North Dakota mattered?

The headlines across all news outlets say pretty much the same thing "No Knockout Blow for Romney" The WSJ even says "GOP Rivals Split Primaries" I'm not sure it's accurate to say that Romney winning more than 50% of the states and Gingrich winning his home state with Santorum picking up the Evangelical heavyweights can be considered a split, but whatever.

Mitt sent me an email this morning asking for another donation. I'm thinking I'm going to give him my annual BYU donation; partly because I'm upset at BYU for the Bott/Davies thing and partly because I want to support a Mormon presidential candidate in the general election.

[Sleeping in EQ]

Romney wins Lake County, Ohio.

There were angels dancing on the Kirtland Temple last night.

[YOhio]

Romney wins Lake County, Ohio.

There were angels dancing on the Kirtland Temple last night.

Nice!

[cowboy]

The lower educated, less affluent, more evangelical people live in rural areas throughout the country and those are the demographics of Santorum's support. Romney wins the intelligent vote everytime, which is something of which he should be proud. Needleneck Wankers for Romney!

Right. Clearly, country people aren't as smart as you big shot city folk. That map looks almost identical to the national map in the last presidential election, so are you saying that Obama won the "intelligent" vote? While you're busy being smarter than us rednecks, why don't you try to figure out why a bunch of farmers would be less than enthused about a guy who supported cap and trade.

[YOhio]

Right. Clearly, country people aren't as smart as you big shot city folk. That map looks almost identical to the national map in the last presidential election, so are you saying that Obama won the "intelligent" vote? While you're busy being smarter than us rednecks, why don't you try to figure out why a bunch of farmers would be less than enthused about a guy who supported cap and trade.

He was talking about Ohio rednecks. We're cool with Wyoming rednecks.