2024 Presidential Election Thread

[Northwestcoug]

The national polls have widened a little bit and Harris seems to be comfortably in the +4 range. That might be the sweet spot where she wins by enough that Trumps claims of election fraud are again not relevant but where she clearly doesn’t have a mandate. The GOP will almost certainly take the senate. That would be the best case scenario from this election. Trump losing. No mandate for Harris. Divided powers between the executive and legislative.

Still a toss-up for the presidential election, and it's probably going to come down to a few hundred thousand votes in 3 states just like it did in 2020. But yeah, the senate looks like it's a done deal. Although I caught a few clips of Allred debating Cruz yesterday. Allred seemed like he was winning. That would be awesome if he did.

[Jeff Lebowski]

That's old data. The current Polymarket forecast (which the Freakonomics podcast says may be the most accurate predictor since it's tied to current betting trends) sets the current Trump win likelihood at 80-20. Looking forward to Trump fulfilling all of his promises, just like last time! (e.g., health care for everyone at lower prices, no deficit, elimination of national debt, completion of border wall fully paid for by Mexico, etc.). Heaven help us.

Your link says 60-40, not 80-20. What am I missing?

[PaloAltoCougar]

Your link says 60-40, not 80-20. What am I missing?

My mistake. I was looking at the Senate tab, not Presidency (the tabs are in the upper left). Currently 58.9-40 for the presidency.

[Uncle Ted]

That's old data. The current Polymarket forecast (which the Freakonomics podcast says may be the most accurate predictor since it's tied to current betting trends) sets the current Trump win likelihood at 80-20. Looking forward to Trump fulfilling all of his promises, just like last time! (e.g., health care for everyone at lower prices, no deficit, elimination of national debt, completion of border wall fully paid for by Mexico, etc.). Heaven help us.

I am looking forward to Harris (if she wins, unlikely) to those million (forgivable) loans to black (and black only) small businessmen.

But if Trump wins I am looking forward to all the Dems griping about how the election should be based on the popular vote...

PopularVote.png

And the Dems protesting the election certification in congress. Oh yeah, but it is different if the Dems do it, right?

[Uncle Ted]

Still a toss-up for the presidential election, and it's probably going to come down to a few hundred thousand votes in 3 states just like it did in 2020. But yeah, the senate looks like it's a done deal. Although I caught a few clips of Allred debating Cruz yesterday. Allred seemed like he was winning. That would be awesome if he did.

LOL... Allred only has a 17.5% chance of winning.

I watched the Texas Debate last night and Allred wasn't even in the same league as Cruz. Cruz is a master debating (not to be confused with masturbator but he may be one of those too). The Cruz even put up a website to fact-check all of Allred's lies. It wasn't even close, except for maybe in Austin.

[PaloAltoCougar]

...

And the Dems protesting the election certification in congress. Oh yeah, but it is different if the Dems do it, right?

In an interview today, Vance said he would not have certified the election. HIs primary reason was that Facebook and another (I forget which) website suppressed the Hunter laptop story for 30 days or so, and that would have made the difference in the election (I doubt it very much, but let's go with that). Vance's refusal to perform a constitutionally mandated task because one or more businesses (we're not talking the government here--businesses are not subject to First Amendment constraints) interfered in the election process would be justified in Vance's keen Ivy League mind (and certainly Trump's twisted brain).

So let's run with that reasoning...

Elon Musk is one of Trump's major benefactors ($75 Million and counting). Each day Twitter/X posts demonstrably false claims about a variety of campaign topics (e.g., immigrants eating everyone's cats). There are hundreds of other examples--skeptics can do a quick search for false claims about Harris on X. Yet Musk retweets and Vance doubles down on some of them. X's algorithms drive users toward such falsehoods. Given Vance's position on certification, I assume he wouldn't dispute Vice President Harris's refusal to certify a Trump win because of X's and Musk's manipulations.

However much one may justifiably criticize Harris and the Dems, there is no reason to think she'd refuse to perform her constitutional duty, something Trump and Vance are more than eager to do. I sincerely fear that Trump and Vance (along with the sycophants Trump will surround himself with in a second term) will not be constrained by the Constitution.

[Jeff Lebowski]

JD Vance would not certify an election due to his personal belief that the media was mean to his candidate. Just let that sink in for a minute.

[Northwestcoug]

LOL... Allred only has a 17.5% chance of winning.

I watched the Texas Debate last night and Allred wasn't even in the same league as Cruz. Cruz is a master debating (not to be confused with masturbator but he may be one of those too). The Cruz even put up a website to fact-check all of Allred's lies. It wasn't even close, except for maybe in Austin.

Hey your political realignment was pretty quick!

I hope the GOP serves you well!

[Uncle Ted]

In an interview today, Vance said he would not have certified the election. HIs primary reason was that Facebook and another (I forget which) website suppressed the Hunter laptop story for 30 days or so, and that would have made the difference in the election (I doubt it very much, but let's go with that). Vance's refusal to perform a constitutionally mandated task because one or more businesses (we're not talking the government here--businesses are not subject to First Amendment constraints) interfered in the election process would be justified in Vance's keen Ivy League mind (and certainly Trump's twisted brain).

So let's run with that reasoning...

Elon Musk is one of Trump's major benefactors ($75 Million and counting). Each day Twitter/X posts demonstrably false claims about a variety of campaign topics (e.g., immigrants eating everyone's cats). There are hundreds of other examples--skeptics can do a quick search for false claims about Harris on X. Yet Musk retweets and Vance doubles down on some of them. X's algorithms drive users toward such falsehoods. Given Vance's position on certification, I assume he wouldn't dispute Vice President Harris's refusal to certify a Trump win because of X's and Musk's manipulations.

However much one may justifiably criticize Harris and the Dems, there is no reason to think she'd refuse to perform her constitutional duty, something Trump and Vance are more than eager to do. I sincerely fear that Trump and Vance (along with the sycophants Trump will surround himself with in a second term) will not be constrained by the Constitution.

Let's talk about being constrained by the constitution for just a moment, in particular the 1st amendment. The Harris-Biden administration felt constrained by the constitution so they ordered Meta, paid Twitter with tax payers money, and other social media outlets to suppress free speech. Elon Musk spent a crapload of his money to bring back free speech to twitter. In the process he uncovered the "twitter papers" which outlined how the Harris-Biden administration and other Dems controlled the speech on that platform. Now, thanks to Musk, oher posters on the X.com platform or some other platform can openly debate the immigrants eating cats issue or whatever issue they want... The problem is the government suppressing issues that they deemed "Russian Disinformation" or for some other lame excuse. Of course, if they picked me on deciding on what information should be suppressed I guess I wouldn't have a problem with it. I definitely wouldn't have suppressed the Hunter Biden laptop story and banned the New York Post from twitter. Why do the Dems feel constrained by the 1st amendment?

If Vance believes that he would not have certified the election then he should have the chance to present his evidence why as the constitution allows him to. Dems just want to silence him.

[Uncle Ted]

Hey your political realignment was pretty quick!

I hope the GOP serves you well!

I am most likely voting for Ted Brown. I would never vote for a Baylor graduate (not to mention UC Berkeley).

[Uncle Ted]

Harris is asked when did she notice Grandpa Joe's cognitive decline...

Embedded Tweet

Yet, she says that Trump is the one with cognitive decline. So she was blind to Grandpa Joe's decline who met with practically every day but is an expert on judging others mental condition who she never meets with. LOL

[PaloAltoCougar]

Let's talk about being constrained by the constitution for just a moment, in particular the 1st amendment. The Harris-Biden administration felt constrained by the constitution so they ordered Meta, paid Twitter with tax payers money, and other social media outlets to suppress free speech. Elon Musk spent a crapload of his money to bring back free speech to twitter. In the process he uncovered the "twitter papers" which outlined how the Harris-Biden administration and other Dems controlled the speech on that platform. Now, thanks to Musk, oher posters on the X.com platform or some other platform can openly debate the immigrants eating cats issue or whatever issue they want... The problem is the government suppressing issues that they deemed "Russian Disinformation" or for some other lame excuse. Of course, if they picked me on deciding on what information should be suppressed I guess I wouldn't have a problem with it. I definitely wouldn't have suppressed the Hunter Biden laptop story and banned the New York Post from twitter. Why do the Dems feel constrained by the 1st amendment?

If Vance believes that he would not have certified the election then he should have the chance to present his evidence why as the constitution allows him to. Dems just want to silence him.

Thanks for reminding me why I shouldn't have violated my commitment a few weeks ago not to engage with you on politics and foreign policy. You tend to overstate your case and use very biased (and frequently incorrect) sources to make your points. Your first link doesn't exist anymore, and your second point (relying as it does on people like Stefanik and Jordan) has been refuted multiple times. I also don't understand the point of your second paragraph. Lawyer Vance isn't being silenced from making his constitutional case for not certifying. He simply hasn't. And can't. I herewith renew my commitment, although I'll remain your brother in support of BYU Athletics and products from the spaceship.

[Uncle Ted]

LOL... Blame it on Trump!

Embedded Tweet

[frank ryan]

LOL... Blame it on Trump!

Embedded Tweet

You do realize he impacts the country a great deal. He has a whole bunch of people simping for him and compromising their values. He scuttles legislation for his ego. When is the last time Trump even faked taking ownership for anything he has done wrong?

[Uncle Ted]

Thanks for reminding me why I shouldn't have violated my commitment a few weeks ago not to engage with you on politics and foreign policy. You tend to overstate your case and use very biased (and frequently incorrect) sources to make your points. Your first link doesn't exist anymore, and your second point (relying as it does on people like Stefanik and Jordan) has been refuted multiple times. I also don't understand the point of your second paragraph. Lawyer Vance isn't being silenced from making his constitutional case for not certifying. He simply hasn't. And can't. I herewith renew my commitment, although I'll remain your brother in support of BYU Athletics and products from the spaceship.

For some reason the Zuckerberg link was messed up... https://x.com/OliLondonTV/status/1828382519588462992

The "twitter files" shows that the government had a heavy hand in suppressing content on social media... including blocking the New York Press' story from being posted which most believe changed the election.