Bronco Mendenhall: Big game coach?

[Art Vandelay]

I'm always interested in the varying opinions fans have of Bronco as a coach. I know this isn't unique to BYU, but it is fascinating to me nonetheless. I went back and looked at the betting lines,* since 2005 to see how BM has done in relation to the betting public's expectations.

I was interested in how often BYU won as an underdog, or lost as a favorite. I was also curious how often BYU did much better, or worse against the spread. The highlighted lines are games BYU either won or lost by more than a 10 point difference than the spread. I disregarded games that had an opening line >10, as those seemed to be more prone to blowouts, and were rarely "big games" most fans care about - beating Idaho by 40 instead of 30 seemed a meaningless yardstick to me.

If there are faults, they are the mistakes of men lebowski or Mark Grace; wherefore, condemn not the things of Vandelay

Edit: This is a lot of (probably worthless) information. I've been asked what is the point or what does it mean. My hypothesis before looking up any data was Bronco was probably not as bad of coach in close games, or as a favorite as he is often accused of being. Public perception is greatly influenced by the Utah losses (IMO: rightfully so, as Goat states below). However, he has won slightly more games as an underdog, than he has lost as favorite. He has won more games by larger than (Vegas) expected margins than he has lost. This would be skewed even further, if I added in the games with lines greater than 10 points.


* I fully understand betting lines are different than predictions of who will win. They are set to induct equal betting on both sides. I would assume they can also be influenced by the perceived quality of coaching (e.g. Nick Saban likely is worth at least 3 points a game).

[byu71]

I'm always interested in the varying opinions fans have of Bronco as a coach. I know this isn't unique to BYU, but it is fascinating to me nonetheless. I went back and looked at the betting lines,* since 2005 to see how BM has done in relation to the betting public's expectations.

I was interested in how often BYU won as an underdog, or lost as a favorite. I was also curious how often BYU did much better, or worse against the spread. The highlighted lines are games BYU either won or lost by more than a 10 point difference than the spread. I disregarded games that had an opening line >10, as those seemed to be more prone to blowouts, and were rarely "big games" most fans care about - beating Idaho by 40 instead of 30 seemed a meaningless yardstick to me.

Now if there are faults they are the mistakes of men lebowski or Mark Grace; wherefore, condemn not the things of Vandelay

Looks like a lot of work there. I wonder if it has any meaning in determing the answer to your question. Looks like Bronco is about 50/50. Maybe a Ute fan could do the same scenario for Kyle or some other coaches and we can see how they compare to Bronco.

Hopefully Kyle performs poorly and we can disgard the on field W/L record.

[Goatnapper'96]

Bronco and the fans boils down to two things. One is legitimate and one is the result of stringpulling.

1.) His poor record against Utah. Slice it or dice it anyway you want but BYU has underachieved against Utah. The spread likely represents this as does the eye test. IMO, BYU has gone into two games with a clearly better team and Utah has gone into one game with a clearly better team. BYU was better in 2006 and 2007 and Utah was better in 2008. I think the two teams were basically even every other year than perhaps 2009 as BYU a slight lead and 2010 with Utah a slight lead. So in 6 toss up games BYU is 1-5. That frustrates fans and it is entirely legitimate.

2.) Bronco has guided BYU to good without ever having an elite year. He gets BYU going up the mountain but is unable to push them over. I think BYU fans are pussies for whining about this as the program is just about pegged for its potential IMO.

I also think that he will have his best chance to do that either of the next two years and part of that is because Utah is not on the schedule. The other part is I think he is going to have the best college qb he will coach in his career.

[Sizzle]

Bronco and the fans boils down to two things. One is legitimate and one is the result of stringpulling.

1.) His poor record against Utah. Slice it or dice it anyway you want but BYU has underachieved against Utah. The spread likely represents this as does the eye test. IMO, BYU has gone into two games with a clearly better team and Utah has gone into one game with a clearly better team. BYU was better in 2006 and 2007 and Utah was better in 2008. I think the two teams were basically even every other year than perhaps 2009 as BYU a slight lead and 2010 with Utah a slight lead. So in 6 toss up games BYU is 1-5. That frustrates fans and it is entirely legitimate.

2.) Bronco has guided BYU to good without ever having an elite year. He gets BYU going up the mountain but is unable to push them over. I think BYU fans are pussies for whining about this as the program is just about pegged for its potential IMO.

I also think that he will have his best chance to do that either of the next two years and part of that is because Utah is not on the schedule. The other part is I think he is going to have the best college qb he will coach in his career.

Look at Goat forgetting that the next BYU QB is also a son of the 208, Elite 11 Co-MVP Tanner Mangum (co-MVP with Jameis Winston, FWIW).

[Pelado]

Look at Goat forgetting that the next BYU QB is also a son of the 208, Elite 11 Co-MVP Tanner Mangum (co-MVP with Jameis Winston, FWIW).

Ah, but isn't Tanner more of a city-boy?

[FN Phat]

Look at Goat forgetting that the next BYU QB is also a son of the 208, Elite 11 Co-MVP Tanner Mangum (co-MVP with Jameis Winston, FWIW).

Spoiled rich kid from Eagle!

[Goatnapper'96]

Look at Goat forgetting that the next BYU QB is also a son of the 208, Elite 11 Co-MVP Tanner Mangum (co-MVP with Jameis Winston, FWIW).

Dude, I love Tanner Mangum. Tanner Mangum is a friend of mine. Tanner Mangum will be a great college qb and lead BYU to many victories and bestow even more greatness, pride and adulation upon the Noble Sons of the 208. Tanner Mangum will not be a Taysom Hill.

[Sizzle]

Bronco and the fans boils down to two things. One is legitimate and one is the result of stringpulling.

1.) His poor record against Utah. Slice it or dice it anyway you want but BYU has underachieved against Utah. The spread likely represents this as does the eye test. IMO, BYU has gone into two games with a clearly better team and Utah has gone into one game with a clearly better team. BYU was better in 2006 and 2007 and Utah was better in 2008. I think the two teams were basically even every other year than perhaps 2009 as BYU a slight lead and 2010 with Utah a slight lead. So in 6 toss up games BYU is 1-5. That frustrates fans and it is entirely legitimate.

2.) Bronco has guided BYU to good without ever having an elite year. He gets BYU going up the mountain but is unable to push them over. I think BYU fans are pussies for whining about this as the program is just about pegged for its potential IMO.

I also think that he will have his best chance to do that either of the next two years and part of that is because Utah is not on the schedule. The other part is I think he is going to have the best college qb he will coach in his career.

In general though, I agree with you. Save Utah, for the most part under Bronco, BYU has won the games they should win, and lost the games they're expected to lose. I think Bronco deserves a lot of credit for having his teams adjust and adapt to poor starts. Bronco's best seasons have been his second through fifth 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009.

2006: started slow, losing at Arizona (thanks to a BS PI call) and at Boston College (in double OT against a very very good college QB).
2007: started slow, losing a winnable game at UCLA and a game they should have won against Tulsa
2008: started strong, lost at a very good TCU team, and at Utah to the team who finished #2 in the polls
2009: started very strong, lost to a very good Florida State team, and to a very good TCU team, both, unfortunately, at home

2013 feels similar to some of these years. Started slow, losing at Virginia (in a game that they were the better team, save a bad interception) and losing against Utah in a game they also probably should have won. This year we still have three tests left on the schedule in Boise, Wisconsin and Notre Dame to see how good we really are. The truth is, we're probably a team in the range of 20 to 40, which is about where we're ranked. Next year, pending how the defense looks, we could look at a start similar to 2008 or 2009. Hopefully we can keep the momentum though and get over the hump.

[Art Vandelay]

My initial post is a little bit more of an eyesore than I anticipated. I added a small explanation of why I did it and what it means to me.

My personal feelings are: a) Bronco is an defensive savant. b) He is an above average D-1 coach. He is no Nick Saban, but thankfully he isn't anywhere close to being Lane Kiffin either. c) He is fiercely loyal to his players, and they seemingly love him d) John Cooper won a lot of games, but was 2-10 against Michigan, that was one of the main reasons the vest was brought in. Bronco needs to do better against Utah; most years that is the most important games (to fans) that BYU plays. e) I don't see a slew of young lds coaches, who have both the coaching acumen, and ability to navigate the strangeness that is the Lord's University. Bottom line: Bronco has underperformed against Utah, but been better than expected in almost every other area. I think he is the best fit for BYU at this time.

[Sizzle]

Dude, I love Tanner Mangum. Tanner Mangum is a friend of mine. Tanner Mangum will be a great college qb and lead BYU to many victories and bestow even more greatness, pride and adulation upon the Noble Sons of the 208. Tanner Mangum will not be a Taysom Hill.

I agree. He'll be akin to Max Hall to BYU's John Beck. FWIW, I think John Beck's 2006 season was one of the better performances by a BYU QB in the last 20 years, if not the best (basically post-Ty). I think Taysom will overcome Beck's highest high. I think Max had the benefit of a better supporting cast, which is why he won more games. TBD on who will have the better team around him, Mangum or Hill. But I'm digging on the Idaho QB pipeline!

[Goatnapper'96]

My initial post is a little bit more of an eyesore than I anticipated. I added a small explanation of why I did it and what it means to me.

My personal feelings are: a) Bronco is an defensive savant. b) He is an above average D-1 coach. He is no Nick Saban, but thankfully he isn't anywhere close to being Lane Kiffin either. c) He is fiercely loyal to his players, and they seemingly love him d) John Cooper won a lot of games, but was 2-10 against Michigan, that was one of the main reasons the vest was brought in. Bronco needs to do better against Utah; most years that is the most important games (to fans) that BYU plays. e) I don't see a slew of young lds coaches, who have both the coaching acumen, and ability to navigate the strangeness that is the Lord's University. Bottom line: Bronco has underperformed against Utah, but been better than expected in almost every other area. I think he is the best fit for BYU at this time.

I agree but I hate the "best for BYU at this time." I think he is just a very good coach, period. He would be a very good coach anywhere.

[byu71]

My initial post is a little bit more of an eyesore than I anticipated. I added a small explanation of why I did it and what it means to me.

My personal feelings are: a) Bronco is an defensive savant. b) He is an above average D-1 coach. He is no Nick Saban, but thankfully he isn't anywhere close to being Lane Kiffin either. c) He is fiercely loyal to his players, and they seemingly love him d) John Cooper won a lot of games, but was 2-10 against Michigan, that was one of the main reasons the vest was brought in. Bronco needs to do better against Utah; most years that is the most important games (to fans) that BYU plays. e) I don't see a slew of young lds coaches, who have both the coaching acumen, and ability to navigate the strangeness that is the Lord's University. Bottom line: Bronco has underperformed against Utah, but been better than expected in almost every other area. I think he is the best fit for BYU at this time.

Under the circumstances that is BYU, we are extremely lucky to have Bronco and have him turn out as well as he did. I don't see things changing and so if they don't we won't ever be able to hire a proven coach and you don't get too lucky on a crap shoot that often. I hope the belief that he loves BYU and would never leave for a different job is true.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Just a little FYI to byu71 (and anyone else so inclined): There is no need to quote the opening post to a thread. We realize what you are talking about. All that does is bloat the database. Please stop. TIA.

Very cool analysis, Art.

[venkman]

At some point, consistently losing to your rival should be a firable offense, regardless of whether or not you're doing everything else right.

[byu71]

Just a little FYI to byu71 (and anyone else so inclined): There is no need to quote the opening post to a thread. We realize what you are talking about. All that does is bloat the database. Please stop. TIA.

Very cool analysis, Art.

Can I if I want to or is this more than a suggestion?