Going for it on fourth down

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  • SeattleUte
    Faith crisis consultant
    • Nov 2008
    • 20837

    #31
    Originally posted by CardiacCoug View Post
    Just thinking about this some more I think going for it on 4th and 1 from the 50 yard line is kind of like this risk aversion example:

    Someone gives you a choice between taking a coin flip that will either give you $100 or $0 OR you can just take a guaranteed $40.

    Going for it on 4th and 1 from the 50 is choosing the coin flip (high risk, high reward). Punting it is taking the guaranteed $40.

    Sure if you go for it a lot on 4th down you will end up with $0 a bunch of times, but over the course of the season it will pay off to take the coin flip by aggressively go for it on 4th down (per the chart).

    Obviously there are specific variables for each team involving the FG kicker, punter, game situation, and offensive/defensive strengths and weaknesses. Bottom line though is that coaches have traditionally been way too conservative because of human psychology related to risk aversion.
    What about going for it inside your own 40, 4 to go, and the score tied late in the game, as Whit did? Does the pupular science justify that?
    When a true genius appears, you can know him by this sign: that all the dunces are in a confederacy against him.

    --Jonathan Swift

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    • Indy Coug
      Heartless Bastard
      • Dec 2008
      • 18747

      #32
      BYU went for it on 4th down at the end of the game (2pt conversion, but same difference) against Boise State.
      Everything in life is an approximation.

      http://twitter.com/CougarStats

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      • lambdacoug
        Junior Member
        • Oct 2011
        • 3981

        #33
        Originally posted by Indy Coug View Post
        BYU went for it on 4th down at the end of the game (2pt conversion, but same difference) against Boise State.
        Yeah, turnover on downs and giving up one point is totally the same thing.
        Don't worry about people stealing your ideas. If your ideas are any good, you'll have to ram them down people's throats.
        - Howard Aiken

        Any sufficiently complicated platform contains an ad hoc, informally-specified, bug-ridden, slow implementation of half of a functional programming language.
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        • HuskyFreeNorthwest
          Time to camp
          • Nov 2008
          • 26082

          #34
          Originally posted by SeattleUte View Post
          Wasu beat the Huskies because Leach was smart enough to kick a field goal for the tie near end of regulation rather than go for it on fourth and short. Whatever the lying stats say, that seems to happen every time,doesn't it.
          I also think that not kicking from inside the 10 cost Oregon a crystal trophy 2 years ago against Auburn.

          I'm fine being aggressive between the 30s, but inside the 20 (10 if you have a kicker the caliber of the Ducks) you put the points on the board every time.
          Get confident, stupid
          -landpoke

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          • Mormon Red Death
            BYU Delenda Est
            • Nov 2008
            • 8077

            #35
            Originally posted by SeattleUte View Post
            Wasu beat the Huskies because Leach was smart enough to kick a field goal for the tie near end of regulation rather than go for it on fourth and short. Whatever the lying stats say, that seems to happen every time,doesn't it.
            There is a time for kicking fg and time to go for it. Punting is where going for it on 4th is more advantageous.


            Sent from my SGH-T839 using Tapatalk 2
            "Be a philosopher. A man can compromise to gain a point. It has become apparent that a man can, within limits, follow his inclinations within the arms of the Church if he does so discreetly." - The Walking Drum

            "And here’s what life comes down to—not how many years you live, but how many of those years are filled with bullshit that doesn’t amount to anything to satisfy the requirements of some dickhead you’ll never get the pleasure of punching in the face." – Adam Carolla

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            • Mormon Red Death
              BYU Delenda Est
              • Nov 2008
              • 8077

              #36
              Originally posted by SeattleUte View Post
              What about going for it inside your own 40, 4 to go, and the score tied late in the game, as Whit did? Does the pupular science justify that?
              Whit thought he had the element of surprise. While it was technically going for it he was faking a punt instead of lining up in an offensive formation. This is different than the traditional going for it.

              Btw where is the condemnation for him on the fake fg?

              Sent from my SGH-T839 using Tapatalk 2
              "Be a philosopher. A man can compromise to gain a point. It has become apparent that a man can, within limits, follow his inclinations within the arms of the Church if he does so discreetly." - The Walking Drum

              "And here’s what life comes down to—not how many years you live, but how many of those years are filled with bullshit that doesn’t amount to anything to satisfy the requirements of some dickhead you’ll never get the pleasure of punching in the face." – Adam Carolla

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              • The_Douger
                Athletic Supporter
                • Jun 2012
                • 5413

                #37


                The examples you're providing are silly.
                Will donate kidney for B12 membership.

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                • SeattleUte
                  Faith crisis consultant
                  • Nov 2008
                  • 20837

                  #38
                  Swish!

                  I bet Pete wishes he'd have kicked those two field goals. Shouldn't have panicked.

                  It's always stupid to go for it on fourth down unless you have to.
                  When a true genius appears, you can know him by this sign: that all the dunces are in a confederacy against him.

                  --Jonathan Swift

                  Comment

                  • woot
                    Resident Science Cop
                    • Nov 2008
                    • 5531

                    #39
                    Originally posted by SeattleUte View Post
                    Swish!

                    I bet Pete wishes he'd have kicked those two field goals. Shouldn't have panicked.

                    It's always stupid to go for it on fourth down unless you have to.

                    Comment

                    • Non Sequitur
                      Where did I put my bodkin
                      • Nov 2008
                      • 5773

                      #40
                      Originally posted by SeattleUte View Post
                      Swish!

                      I bet Pete wishes he'd have kicked those two field goals. Shouldn't have panicked.

                      It's always stupid to go for it on fourth down unless you have to.
                      You always take the points early in the game. On the last play I would have tried a field goal. You're in a dome. The odds of making a 65 yard field goal have to be better than the odds of completing a hail mary pass.
                      "The mind is not a boomerang. If you throw it too far it will not come back." ~ Tom McGuane

                      Comment

                      • Mormon Red Death
                        BYU Delenda Est
                        • Nov 2008
                        • 8077

                        #41
                        Originally posted by Non Sequitur View Post
                        You always take the points early in the game. On the last play I would have tried a field goal. You're in a dome. The odds of making a 65 yard field goal have to be better than the odds of completing a hail mary pass.
                        The tmq axiom is kick early go for it late.

                        Sent from my SGH-T839 using Tapatalk 2
                        "Be a philosopher. A man can compromise to gain a point. It has become apparent that a man can, within limits, follow his inclinations within the arms of the Church if he does so discreetly." - The Walking Drum

                        "And here’s what life comes down to—not how many years you live, but how many of those years are filled with bullshit that doesn’t amount to anything to satisfy the requirements of some dickhead you’ll never get the pleasure of punching in the face." – Adam Carolla

                        Comment

                        • CardiacCoug
                          вот так штука
                          • Nov 2008
                          • 11013

                          #42
                          Thought this video was good -- love this coach. Pulaski Academy never punts or kicks off deep and breaks Highland Park's huge winning streak.

                          ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

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                          • SCcoug
                            Senior Member
                            • Nov 2008
                            • 7625

                            #43
                            Originally posted by CardiacCoug View Post
                            Thought this video was good -- love this coach. Pulaski Academy never punts or kicks off deep and breaks Highland Park's huge winning streak.

                            http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...o-never-punts/
                            Although oddly enough Highland Park forced Pulaski to punt during the game.

                            Comment

                            • old_gregg
                              scaly man fish
                              • Nov 2009
                              • 16915

                              #44
                              i wonder what insights like this we're missing on defense.
                              Te Occidere Possunt Sed Te Edere Non Possunt Nefas Est.

                              Comment

                              • Omaha 680
                                Senior Member
                                • Jul 2011
                                • 11175

                                #45
                                Originally posted by CardiacCoug View Post
                                Thought this video was good -- love this coach. Pulaski Academy never punts or kicks off deep and breaks Highland Park's huge winning streak.

                                http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...o-never-punts/
                                I would be interested to know the data on scoring percentages from different starting field politions for college and the NFL to know if the numbers say a no-punt strategy would work above the high school level. My gut says it wouldn't. I think the only reason it is a viable strategy in high school is because the kicking game is generally awful.

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