Going for it on fourth down

[pelagius]

I would be interested to know the data on scoring percentages from different starting field politions for college and the NFL to know if the numbers say a no-punt strategy would work above the high school level. My gut says it wouldn't. I think the only reason it is a viable strategy in high school is because the kicking game is generally awful.

This is the right way to analyze the fourth down decision:

http://eml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/nber9024.pdf

It's fourth down and what does the Bellman equation say? (This is the paper that started the fourth down talk years ago. I think years ago I tried to explain the paper on cougarguard)

[CardiacCoug]

This is the right way to analysis the fourth down decision:

http://eml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/nber9024.pdf

It's fourth down and what does the Bellman equation say? (This is the paper that started the fourth down talk years ago. I think years ago I tried to explain the paper on cougarguard)

Yep I really do think that if coaches printed off Figure 5 from that paper and followed its advice their teams would be more like to win. Seems like at least on 4th and 2 or less near midfield teams really shouldn't punt the ball.

[All-American]

Yep I really do think that if coaches printed off Figure 5 from that paper and followed its advice their teams would be more like to win. Seems like at least on 4th and 2 or less near midfield teams really shouldn't punt the ball.

And it's underestimated, if anything, as it figures in calculating point probability that the offenses will be typically conservative on later fourth downs in that drive.