Would you have gone for two?

[wapiti]

Nerdy but serious comment here. Coaches are not equipped to compute probabilities in their head on the fly. I've always wondered if it would make sense to have a full time or consultant statistician, maybe even a grad assistant from the stats department or something. And just stand their on the sideline and tell the coach nerdy stuff like advice on probabilities on stuff like going for 2, punting, onside kick, etc.

All coaches have a table that tells them whether or not to go for two based on the score and amount of time left. This situation didn't apply but for a lot of coaches the decision on whether or not to go for two is just a matter of looking at the table.

As for whether to kick an onside or not, it would take about 10 minutes to make a table that would show how much time you have left based on how many time outs you have. A quick calculation in my head last night said that a 3 and out would get the ball back with less than a minute left. (205-40-40-40-25) One first down and the game would be over. You had to kick an onside kick in that situation.

[Flystripper]

Poor form, Jeff.

I laid out the argument and you give me opinion.

You plaaay to wiiin the gaaame.

You say byu's defense was wearing down without taking into account that Boise's defense was also wearing down. Kick the extra point you have the advantage of momentum in OT.

Going for 2 was one of the stupidest decisions I have seen at any level of football... ever. My 9 year old who goes for two on every touchdown while playing Xbox was flabbergasted with the decision.

[fusnik]

Poor form, Jeff.

I laid out the argument and you give me opinion.

You plaaay to wiiin the gaaame.

Broncos playing a dangerous mental game with his defense.

For 4 straight games they have played increasingly better. They have developed playmakers at multiple positions and appear to be one of BYUs best.

Bronco owed it to his defense to let them win the game in OT. Bronco owed it to the defense to reward them with the ability to be aggressive on BSUs last possession. Remember there was still time for BYU to get the ball back if they stopped them 3 and out. They had earned the right to carry the team to victory.

I wouldn't be surprised if the defense starts to give up as the schedule tightens.

[All-American]

It hurts in the moment, but I still don't think it was a bad call. Their defense was never going to be more vulnerable, or our offense more capable and confident, than at that point. If our right guard holds his ground better, I think the play works, too. The outcome was disappointing, but the decision wasn't stupid.

I thought some more about the decision not to go for the onside kick, too, and I'm less uncomfortable with that decision now as well. Either way, if Boise State gets the ball, the defense has to keep them from getting a first down or the game is over. The question, then, is whether you take the (potentially) forty yards of field position in exchange for the slight chance that you recover the onside kick. A reasonable person could decide that the best chance of winning would be to ask the defense to hold them to three and out and ask the offense to move the ball down a shorter field for a field goal try instead of trying for an onside kick that so rarely works. I don't know if that's the decision I would have made, in all honesty, but it's not unreasonable.

The focus after this loss needs to be on the totally anemic offensive performance, not on these two decisions.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Broncos playing a dangerous mental game with his defense.

For 4 straight games they have played increasingly better. They have developed playmakers at multiple positions and appear to be one of BYUs best.

Bronco owed it to his defense to let them win the game in OT. Bronco owed it to the defense to reward them with the ability to be aggressive on BSUs last possession. Remember there was still time for BYU to get the ball back if they stopped them 3 and out. They had earned the right to carry the team to victory.

I wouldn't be surprised if the defense starts to give up as the schedule tightens.

Fusnik is right again.

[fusnik]

It hurts in the moment, but I still don't think it was a bad call. Their defense was never going to be more vulnerable, or our offense more capable and confident, than at that point. If our right guard holds his ground better, I think the play works, too. The outcome was disappointing, but the decision wasn't stupid.

I thought some more about the decision not to go for the onside kick, too, and I'm less uncomfortable with that decision now as well. Either way, if Boise State gets the ball, the defense has to keep them from getting a first down or the game is over. The question, then, is whether you take the (potentially) forty yards of field position in exchange for the slight chance that you recover the onside kick. A reasonable person could decide that the best chance of winning would be to ask the defense to hold them to three and out and ask the offense to move the ball down a shorter field for a field goal try instead of trying for an onside kick that so rarely works. I don't know if that's the decision I would have made, in all honesty, but it's not unreasonable.

The focus after this loss needs to be on the totally anemic offensive performance, not on these two decisions.

With no timeouts you have to try the onsides kick.

[byu71]

Nerdy but serious comment here. Coaches are not equipped to compute probabilities in their head on the fly. I've always wondered if it would make sense to have a full time or consultant statistician, maybe even a grad assistant from the stats department or something. And just stand their on the sideline and tell the coach nerdy stuff like advice on probabilities on stuff like going for 2, punting, onside kick, etc.

Good idea, but in this case it didn't matter. Even with hindsight, Bronco said he would do it again. His reason, he liked the momentum the offense had going and made the decision when they were still back at the 20 if they scored they would go for it.

Unless the stats have something in there that accounts for the coach feeling we have momentum, I don't the stats would have changed Bronco's opinion.

Just as a side note, do you think Bronco gives a crap what we think?

[wapiti]

A freshman QB whose first three drives netted you 1, 7, and 16 yards, respectively.

Hill never started a drive from outside his own 15. Doman had to be conservative with him until the field position changed or desperation set in. Once Doman opened the playbook for Hill success followed. The Boise defense was unprepared for Hill's style. Reasonable minds can disagree but I like our chances in OT.

[All-American]

With no timeouts you have to try the onsides kick.

If I'm the coach, I think I probably do try an onside kick. I just don't think it is entirely unreasonable not to.

[All-American]

Just as a side note, do you think Bronco gives a crap what we think?

I'm sure he doesn't, and I'm even more sure that he shouldn't.

[Green Monstah]

With no timeouts you have to try the onsides kick.

I agree. I was in a room with 8 of my buddies, and we were all so despondent that we didn't even think this through. If you commit to going for 2, you have to also commit to the onsides kick if it fails, esp with no timeouts.

[byu71]

Going for two was ridiculous. If we had our time outs left, then the decision to go for two is more palpable but still, our Defense was lights out all night.

That being said, Doman has to go. Is there a reason why we have not tried to throw down field the last two games? I simply do not understand the logic not to test the DBs at all. We did not go deep once yesterday. We have turned into an option team.

After Doman gets canned, Weber needs to follow. How many times did our O-Line F-up over the last two games with stupid penalties. Doman actually thinks he knows what he is doing and he is clueless.

I think Weber has more established bona fide's that he should go first. I would like to see what Doman could do with a above average QB.

For the program and not the individual they should be grooming Taysom this year. If we can't win six games with him at QB, who wants to go to a bowl game.

I appreciate Riley's heart and leadership, but if you are looking out for the program instead of an individual, you start getting ready for one of the best schedules in BYU history. Pretend the FB program is priority number 1.

I think Bronco will move in that direction if he stops getting letters and phone calls from GA's after losses telling him he is doing great, keep it up.

[Green Monstah]

Fusnik is right again.

He may be right, but I'll take inferences and deductions based on actual statistics over arguments that BM killed the defense's warm fuzzies for future games (and I'm not trying to bag on Fusnik here; I would be willing to bet that 95% of the defensive starters liked the call at the time it was made. That's how they seem to operate as a unit--no excuses, carpe diem! And yes, I realize that pure conjecture on my part).

[Green Monstah]

Hill never started a drive from outside his own 15. Doman had to be conservative with him until the field position changed or desperation set in. Once Doman opened the playbook for Hill success followed. The Boise defense was unprepared for Hill's style. Reasonable minds can disagree but I like our chances in OT.

Opened the playbook? You mean, once Hill started running for double digit gains? IIRC, there was only one catch greater than 10 yards, and that was to Hoffman for a gain of maybe 11?

[Green Monstah]

You say byu's defense was wearing down without taking into account that Boise's defense was also wearing down. Kick the extra point you have the advantage of momentum in OT.

Going for 2 was one of the stupidest decisions I have seen at any level of football... ever. My 9 year old who goes for two on every touchdown while playing Xbox was flabbergasted with the decision.

BSU's defense may have been wearing down. They certainly weren't on the field as much as our defense, but I'll grant you that. If we call the defenses a wash, then it boils down to whose offense is more likely to move the ball in OT. That's a no-brainer.