Would you have gone for two?

[UtahDan]

Nerdy but serious comment here. Coaches are not equipped to compute probabilities in their head on the fly. I've always wondered if it would make sense to have a full time or consultant statistician, maybe even a grad assistant from the stats department or something. And just stand their on the sideline and tell the coach nerdy stuff like advice on probabilities on stuff like going for 2, punting, onside kick, etc.

Not a bad idea. However, I think that most good coaches have internalized those odds in at least a general way so that they don't have to go with their gut in the heat of the moment. I bet Bronco knows, I think he just goes with his instincts from situation to situation rather than consistently take an approach with occasional deviations. Nobody jump on me for this, but is there any chance Bronco thinks he's being led by the Spirit? Is that just completely stupid idea? Because it is not always easy to discern a pattern to his thinking.

[Topper]

Not a bad idea. However, I think that most good coaches have internalized those odds in at least a general way so that they don't have to go with their gut in the heat of the moment. I bet Bronco knows, I think he just goes with his instincts from situation to situation rather than consistently take an approach with occasional deviations. Nobody jump on me for this, but is there any chance Bronco thinks he's being led by the Spirit? Is that just completely stupid idea? Because it is not always easy to discern a pattern to his thinking.

Bronco is Satan? You might be on to something.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Before we scored, my 10 yo was saying "we have a great chance to win in overtime. Our D is totally stopping them and their field goal kicker sucks." When we were going for 2, he looked at me with the most horrible pained look on his face "Why are we going for 2? What is Bronco thinking??"

There you have it.

Doman's offense now appears to be: QB run for your life either left or right, look up for someone to throw it to, if not tuck it and run.

This is exactly the same as my youth flag football team's offense.

[lambdacoug]

So all my co-workers are asking WTF is up with the 2-point conversion. It's a pretty universal reaction of incredulity and astonishment. I just have to shake my head and agree with the sentiment.

[Guest]

Going for two was ridiculous. If we had our time outs left, then the decision to go for two is more palpable but still, our Defense was lights out all night.

That being said, Doman has to go. Is there a reason why we have not tried to throw down field the last two games? I simply do not understand the logic not to test the DBs at all. We did not go deep once yesterday. We have turned into an option team.

After Doman gets canned, Weber needs to follow. How many times did our O-Line F-up over the last two games with stupid penalties. Doman actually thinks he knows what he is doing and he is clueless.

[dabrockster]

Going for two was ridiculous. If we had our time outs left, then the decision to go for two is more palpable but still, our Defense was lights out all night.

That being said, Doman has to go. Is there a reason why we have not tried to throw down field the last two games? I simply do not understand the logic not to test the DBs at all. We did not go deep once yesterday. We have turned into an option team.

After Doman gets canned, Weber needs to follow. How many times did our O-Line F-up over the last two games with stupid penalties. Doman actually thinks he knows what he is doing and he is clueless.

We had 8 penaltied last night. I am guess more than half were on the O-Line.. The previous game we had 9 penalites against the O-Line..

It is unacceptable.. Heads need to roll.. The guys should lose about 30 poounds come next week from the amount of running they should be doing..

Bronco always preaches about discipline but it is laughable how undiscipline this O-line is...

[Surfah]

Is there a reason why we have not tried to throw down field the last two games?

Riley Nelson.

[WashingtonCoug]

Why not onside kick the ball?. If Boise gets a first down the game is over anyways. Might as well give your team a chance to get the ball back. Once Boise got that first down, it didn't matter where on the field they were.

[The_Douger]

Our coaches are idiots. You never go for 2 in that situation.

And when they did and we didn't make the play, you certainly don't kick it deep.

[Jacob]

Why not onside kick the ball?. If Boise gets a first down the game is over anyways. Might as well give your team a chance to get the ball back. Once Boise got that first down, it didn't matter where on the field they were.

Yes. Once you have missed the 2. With no timeouts, you have no choice but to try for an onside kick.

[Green Monstah]

I thought that maybe I'd wake up this morning and regret my love for the decision to go for two.

Not so my friends. I absolutely see why this poll is lopsided, but I think a lot of you are suffering from a slight case of myopia.

Your Argument
The argument in favor of kicking the PAT and heading to OT is based on two key facts:

1. Our defense was nails last night.
2. Their kicker sucks.

Thus, we take the PAT and roll the dice in OT, assuming that our defense will keep them from scoring a TD and their kicker will keep them from hitting a FG. This line of reasoniing also requires that you assume that our offense will be able to matriculate the ball 25 yards to the endzone/prevent BSU from moving the ball 25 yards or at the very least that we win the battle of the kickers.

I agree with both 1. and 2., but that's an incomplete list.

You can't consider 1. and 2. without also considering the following:

3. Our offense was horrific last night (fact)

4. Our defense was starting to wear down (observation; subject to disagreement).

5. Offensively, BSU moved the ball better than BYU (fact).

Are 3, 4, and 5 Correct?

Support for # 3 (other than the eyeball test): We gained more yards on the final drive than we did the rest of the ball game. Although the last drive was promising, did the rest of Hill''s drives really give you confidence that a freshman QB who looked lost in the pocket (even though that boy can run)could win in OT? Was there a chance? Sure. At any rate, Hill wasn't calling his own plays, and Doman is a horrible play caller. I think we can all agree that the offense was horrific.

Support for #5:

BSU's drives last night: 6, 55, 4, 8, 68, 29, 23, 0, 29, 8, 25. That's five drives of 25 yards or greater last night. Obviously nothing to be too impressed about, but 25 yards is the distance they'd need to travel to score a TD in OT.

Let's look at BYU's drives: -2, 5, 6, 5, 24, 15, 4, 10, 0, 7, 1, 16, 95. (Hill's drives italicized). That's one drive of greater than 25 yards. Yes, Hill drove 95. He used his legs to pick up some key first downs and was the beneficiary of a 15-yard PF. He had some momentum, but enough for a freshman QB to will his team to victory in OT on the road? I'm not sure I can go that far.

Conclusion: The numbers prove that BSU moved the ball better overall than BYU last night. If you account for Peterson's penchant for trick plays (some of which they've already run this season), I don't like our chances in OT.

The only controversial point I make above is #4. Is it true? I think so. Can it be proven? probably not. Hadley looked to have lost a step. Our defense was on the field a good part of the night. They were nails, but they had to have been exhausted. Even if #4 is false, however, I will point out that BSU still moved the ball better than BYU did throughout the game as evidence that BSU is the likely victor in OT.

Walk a Mile in his Moccasins

So, put yourself in Bronco's shoes. You have an offense that has moved the ball more than 25 yards once. A freshman QB whose first three drives netted you 1, 7, and 16 yards, respectively. You have an OC who is clearly in so far above his head, he can't call a good play to save his life. You have an O-line whose play has been suspect all season. You can depend on the offense to win in OT, or you can finish the game here and now.

The choice boils down to this: Are you more likely to outscore BSU on a short field or to punch the ball in from 3 yards out? Reasonable minds differ, but in light of the foregoing, I'm going with the latter. It was a gutsy, controversial call, but if I'm in BM's shoes, I put two fingers in the air.

[Jeff Lebowski]

And you are still wrong.

[Green Monstah]

And you are still wrong.

Poor form, Jeff.

I laid out the argument and you give me opinion.

You plaaay to wiiin the gaaame.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Poor form, Jeff.

I laid out the argument and you give me opinion.

The argument for kicking and going to OT has been repeated a few dozen times on the board. I don't see a need to lay it out yet again. Your analysis did nothing to counter that simple logic.

[Green Monstah]

The argument for kicking and going to OT has been repeated a few dozen times on the board. I don't see a need to lay it out yet again. Your analysis did nothing to counter that simple logic.

That analysis is clearly incomplete.

We got to overtime! We got to overtime! Can you imagine how pumped our fanbase would be if we'd just gotten to overtime?