U vs. Y '12

[LA Ute]

Wow, it's only Monday night of Rivalry Week and you guys are already popping nasty pills. But behold, it mattereth not; we will continue to extend the hand of brotherly agape-soaked love to you all.

[Jarid in Cedar]

Lots of sandbagging going on on both sides it seems.

BYU fans are sandbagging because they know that they really don't know much about how good their team really is. The game against Weber St. didn't teach them anything. The win against Washington St. looks ok on the surface, until you recognize how poor of a team WSU is. WSU barely held on to a win over Eastern Washington at home. They were outgained by over 100 yards by an FCS team. In fact, EWU put up more yards against Wazzu than BYU did.

For all of the talk about how bad Utah's OLine play has been(and it has been bad), how good can Cougar fans feel about their OLine. An OLine that could only average 3.0 yards a carry against the worst front 7 in the PAC-12. How many rushing yards do you think they will get against Utah's front 4?

How do you think that BYU's offense compares to Utah State's? Riley Nelson is at best a B grade replacement for Chuckie. He isn't anywhere near as shifty and fast, and he isn't as accurate of a passer. Arm strength is probably a push. Williams is a much better back than anyone in BYU's backfield. No one that Utah will face Saturday will have the speed and ability of the Aggies backfield, and Riley while having 2 better targets, is not as good a passer as Keeton. Despite these weapons, USU's offense was only able to get 13 points during regulation against the Utes. Do BYU fans think they will do any better.

On the other side, Utah's line was a hot mess in the first half. Utah made some drastic alterations in the lineup for the second half, and despite not having any practice time with that lineup, they didn't give up any sacks and there was much less pressure. Moving Brenner to LT is a key move. He is hands down the best lineman on the team. I don't know why Whitt insisted in keeping him at RG. He filled in for Beadles at LT as a Freshman, and started for Cullen as a Soph. He is 6'4" which is a little short, but his presence there is going to stabilize the entire line. Jones will get the start at RG. Bot(#79) was abused by USU, but people forget that he replaced Bergstrom last year against BYU and held his own. The line is still a worry, but it will be much better this week.

BYU is stout against the run, but they are going to have to commit their linebackers to run support much more than they did against Wazzu. No luxury of playing a 2-4-5 this week. The Cougar secondary better be ready to be tested much more in their base alignment this week. Scott will be a matchup problem for your secondary as will Anderson. DVC is inconsistent, but will have to be accounted for as will Rolf and Murphy.

Ultimately, the game is going to be a defensive struggle that will be decided by QB play. Losing Wynn was addition by subtraction. Riley is more accurate than Hayes, but Hayes has a stronger arm and is more likely to beat you with a big play than Nelson. The advantage that Utah has is that they will not have to commit as many resources to stop the run as BYU. Leaving more players for coverage and containment of any scrambling that Nelson may try. Utah will also cover better than anyone that BYU will see on their schedule. Losing Rowe hurts, no doubt. But Blechen didn't play SS against BYU last year(he was at LB) and Chappius had his best game of the season. BYU is going to have to commit more of their front 7 to stop White, even with Utah's line trouble. This is going to lead to a soft spot behind Ogletree and Kaveinga. The safeties are not going to be able to fill that void because they will have to respect the speed on the outside, and Hayes ability to get the ball down the field.

Fans tend to get wrapped into what happened last week and not look at the whole picture. Based on the play last week, most fans should view BYU as a prohibitive favorite, but the smart fans are sandbagging, because they know that their offense can be yield quite inept this weekend, and they know that Utah has the weapons on offense that can beat them down the field.

[TripletDaddy]

That was way too long winded and off the mark. These BYU fans aren't sandbagging because they don't know how good the team is this year. They are sandbagging because they basically view Utah as the better program after a series of losses and a PAC invite.

[Jarid in Cedar]

That was way too long winded and off the mark. These BYU fans aren't sandbagging because they don't know how good the team is this year. They are sandbagging because they basically view Utah as the better program after a series of losses and a PAC invite.

That too. I was providing reasons they should be concerned.

[Cougarmandias]

That too. I was providing reasons they should be concerned.

Still too complicated. BYU fans are sandbagging because we were swanking around pre-game last year and then on the field put on one of the classic all-time displays of getting thumped like a drum.

[Hsaru]

BYU fans are sandbagging because they know that they really don't know much about how good their team really is. The game against Weber St. didn't teach them anything. The win against Washington St. looks ok on the surface, until you recognize how poor of a team WSU is. WSU barely held on to a win over Eastern Washington at home. They were outgained by over 100 yards by an FCS team. In fact, EWU put up more yards against Wazzu than BYU did.

For all of the talk about how bad Utah's OLine play has been(and it has been bad), how good can Cougar fans feel about their OLine. An OLine that could only average 3.0 yards a carry against the worst front 7 in the PAC-12. How many rushing yards do you think they will get against Utah's front 4?

How do you think that BYU's offense compares to Utah State's? Riley Nelson is at best a B grade replacement for Chuckie. He isn't anywhere near as shifty and fast, and he isn't as accurate of a passer. Arm strength is probably a push. Williams is a much better back than anyone in BYU's backfield. No one that Utah will face Saturday will have the speed and ability of the Aggies backfield, and Riley while having 2 better targets, is not as good a passer as Keeton. Despite these weapons, USU's offense was only able to get 13 points during regulation against the Utes. Do BYU fans think they will do any better.

On the other side, Utah's line was a hot mess in the first half. Utah made some drastic alterations in the lineup for the second half, and despite not having any practice time with that lineup, they didn't give up any sacks and there was much less pressure. Moving Brenner to LT is a key move. He is hands down the best lineman on the team. I don't know why Whitt insisted in keeping him at RG. He filled in for Beadles at LT as a Freshman, and started for Cullen as a Soph. He is 6'4" which is a little short, but his presence there is going to stabilize the entire line. Jones will get the start at RG. Bot(#79) was abused by USU, but people forget that he replaced Bergstrom last year against BYU and held his own. The line is still a worry, but it will be much better this week.

BYU is stout against the run, but they are going to have to commit their linebackers to run support much more than they did against Wazzu. No luxury of playing a 2-4-5 this week. The Cougar secondary better be ready to be tested much more in their base alignment this week. Scott will be a matchup problem for your secondary as will Anderson. DVC is inconsistent, but will have to be accounted for as will Rolf and Murphy.

Ultimately, the game is going to be a defensive struggle that will be decided by QB play. Losing Wynn was addition by subtraction. Riley is more accurate than Hayes, but Hayes has a stronger arm and is more likely to beat you with a big play than Nelson. The advantage that Utah has is that they will not have to commit as many resources to stop the run as BYU. Leaving more players for coverage and containment of any scrambling that Nelson may try. Utah will also cover better than anyone that BYU will see on their schedule. Losing Rowe hurts, no doubt. But Blechen didn't play SS against BYU last year(he was at LB) and Chappius had his best game of the season. BYU is going to have to commit more of their front 7 to stop White, even with Utah's line trouble. This is going to lead to a soft spot behind Ogletree and Kaveinga. The safeties are not going to be able to fill that void because they will have to respect the speed on the outside, and Hayes ability to get the ball down the field.

Fans tend to get wrapped into what happened last week and not look at the whole picture. Based on the play last week, most fans should view BYU as a prohibitive favorite, but the smart fans are sandbagging, because they know that their offense can be yield quite inept this weekend, and they know that Utah has the weapons on offense that can beat them down the field.

This is some of the best analysis on this board. Though I think Utah's poor LB is worth mentioning. If BYU has success on offense it will be at the expense of Utah's LBers.

[myboynoah]

I hope the Cougs also are thinking about this game as if it's already been played. The Utes tried that last week.

Oh, so that's what happened.

[LA Ute]

This is some of the best analysis on this board. Though I think Utah's poor LB is worth mentioning. If BYU has success on offense it will be at the expense of Utah's LBers.

Supposedly (I don't know) Utah's 2012 linebackers are much faster than the 2011 group. That was a big weakness last year.

Oh, so that's what happened.

Well, I think so.

[TripletDaddy]

That too. I was providing reasons they should be concerned.

The reasons have nothing to do with Xs and Os, really. I call upon SeattleUte's now infamous, "IT'S HAPPENING AGAIN!" post from yeas ago. He was conditioned to expect failure because, in all honesty, he was referencing an era wherein Utah playing BYU in football meant failure. Repeated failure. I honestly believe this is why there is so much holdover vitriol among boomer Ute fans. Thprecedent 15 years have given them the opportunity to release frustration from the previous 20 years before that.

Today, you have BYU fans that are now experiencing that cycle. BYU has been, what, around .500 or so against Utah over the past 2 decades? Meanwhile, Utah was embraced and welcomed into the establishment while BYU was summarily rejected. Over time, it also became apparent that the reasons BYU fans wanted to believe were the cause of the rejection (bigotry) really aren't the reasons. In fact, there is decent reason to believe that BYU simply stumbled over itself and was incompetent in negotiations, over-estimating is value in the process and possibly being a bad partner.

In short, these sandbagging BYU fans are now suffering from the very same identity crisis that afflicted SeattleUte all those years ago. They are damaged goods and conditioned to expect failure.

Pathetic.

[Jarid in Cedar]

This is some of the best analysis on this board. Though I think Utah's poor LB is worth mentioning. If BYU has success on offense it will be at the expense of Utah's LBers.

I think you are listening to too much SLC media. Trevor Reilly is a monster and was all over the field. He is capable of covering anyone outside of Hoffman/Apo. LT Filiaga is finally healthy and was in on 8 tackles against USU. Fagergren leads the team with 15 and had 9 against USU. The LB corp is inexperienced, but their play has been solid to date. Filiaga will likely leave as one of the best LB's that Utah has produced in the last 2 decades.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Chuckie Keeton is overrated.

[Jarid in Cedar]

Chuckie Keeton is overrated.

Heh. I thought the same. Would you trade him for Riley?

[Flystripper]

Are the Utes concerned with league play? What is the concern, specifically?

They know deep down that I am correct in my prediction of 4 wins for the Utes.

[Flystripper]

Heh. I thought the same. Would you trade him for Riley?

I probably would. Their passing is skill is a push but Chuckie is a better runner and does not have a history of making bad decisions.

[The_Douger]

I probably would. Their passing is skill is a push but Chuckie is a better runner and does not have a history of making bad decisions.

Chuckie is just a bigger more athletic version.

As a rule, I'd always take the bigger and more athletic guy, all other things being equal.

I don't think he's as amazing as the USU fans I encounter do, but those guys have never seen a real quarterback play football, so I get it.