2012 BYU Football Season

[Commando]

Opening on a Thursday makes so much sense.....gives you that much more time to fix things from your first game experience.

Also a chance to get the jump on Weber State.

[Indy Coug]

Noted. I would like to see what chunk of those running yards came against our beloved cupcakes on the schedule and how many yards we got on the more stout defenses.

This has always been a problem. Almost without exception.

[TripletDaddy]

Rise Up: Riley Nelson

[YOUTUBE]OawTheLtHSs[/YOUTUBE]

[smokymountainrain]

This has always been a problem. Almost without exception.

And Heaven knows BYU's schedule has always been littered with cupcakes. I'm not accusing commando of this in particular, but there seems to be a fairly prevalent sentiment out there that with the move to independence, Byu's schedule has taken a significant turn for the worse. Simply not true, Imo. The WAC/MWC schedules over the years have consistently supplied Byu with several dogs.

[Goatnapper'96]

And Heaven knows BYU's schedule has always been littered with cupcakes. I'm not accusing commando of this in particular, but there seems to be a fairly prevalent sentiment out there that with the move to independence, Byu's schedule has taken a significant turn for the worse. Simply not true, Imo. The WAC/MWC schedules over the years have consistently supplied Byu with several dogs.

Two things that I think are going on about this running yards against bad teams and BYU schedule getting worse:

1.) Utah.
2.) Utah.

Utah is now one of the good teams that stops BYU's running game. Well they have been for a while but our fans might not be real quick. And 2: Utah went to the Pac-12.

It is what I, affectionately I might add, refer to as "Cooch Coeffecient." We are the damned Marylin Chambers of college football sucking up cueballs like a porn star does golfballs through a tennis racket! Perhaps my method of articulating it adds to the war agin' womin, but it is what it is!

[pelagius]

And Heaven knows BYU's schedule has always been littered with cupcakes. I'm not accusing commando of this in particular, but there seems to be a fairly prevalent sentiment out there that with the move to independence, Byu's schedule has taken a significant turn for the worse. Simply not true, Imo. The WAC/MWC schedules over the years have consistently supplied Byu with several dogs.

That's true, but it is also true that 2011 was weak even relative to MWC standards (although I agree with Indy that BYUs rushing stats are pretty nice for both 2010 and 11 and that includes both totals and ypc). Below are the Sagarin SOS ratings.

2001  81
2002  86
2003  14
2004  11
2005  65
2006  74
2007  59
2008  74
2009  61
2010  55
2011  90

So 2011 was pretty bad in terms of SOS. The average is 58.9 from 2002-2011. But it is certainly true that BYU has had schedule strength like 2011 before: 2001 and 2002. That said it looks like 2012 is return to a schedule strength in the 50s and maybe a little better.

[smokymountainrain]

That's true, but it is also true that 2011 was weak even relative to MWC standards (although I agree with Indy that BYUs rushing stats are pretty nice for both 2010 and 11 and that includes both totals and ypc). Below are the Sagarin SOS ratings.

2001  81
2002  86
2003  14
2004  11
2005  65
2006  74
2007  59
2008  74
2009  61
2010  55
2011  90

So 2011 was pretty bad in terms of SOS. The average is 58.9 from 2002-2011. But it is certainly true that BYU has had schedule strength like 2011 before: 2001 and 2002. That said it looks like 2012 is return to a schedule strength in the 50s and maybe a little better.

Very interesting info. Thanks for posting. Solid validation for Commando's point, but as you mentioned, going forward the schedule should be comparable.

[Indy Coug]

So 2011 was pretty bad in terms of SOS. The average is 58.9 from 2002-2011. But it is certainly true that BYU has had schedule strength like 2011 before: 2001 and 2002. That said it looks like 2012 is return to a schedule strength in the 50s and maybe a little better.

Under Bronco, that average is 68.3. 2003 and 2004 are among the 3 or 4 toughest schedules in BYU history.

[SoCalCoug]

Noted. I would like to see what chunk of those running yards came against our beloved cupcakes on the schedule and how many yards we got on the more stout defenses. I realize we ran all over Idaho State, and we also have an unusually dextrous QB who makes teams pay with lots of yards on the ground. I maintain that we will improve merely with a nice FB like Iona on the field + RBs who can drag guys.

that's easy:

31 for 91 yards versus Ole Miss
23 for 43 yards versus Texas
22 for 11 yards versus Utah
32 for 127 yards versus Central Florida
46 for 200 yards versus Utah State
44 for 224 yards versus San Jose State
48 for 282 yards versus Oregon State
44 for 290 yards versus Idaho State
50 for 139 yards versus TCU
42 for 243 yards versus Idaho
34 for 173 yards versus New Mexico State
38 for 167 yards versus Hawaii
40 for 94 yards versus Tulsa

there seems to be more of a difference between games with heaps and games with Riley, as opposed to games against "good" teams as opposed to games against poor teams. But then that's just me I guess.

[pelagius]

Under Bronco, that average is 68.3. 2003 and 2004 are among the 3 or 4 toughest schedules in BYU history.

SOS, of course, is one of those difficul things to define well. Sagarin tries to compute it based on how good would you have to be to win 50% of the games on your schedule. Sagarin would predict that the 86th ranked team would have won half their games against BYU's 2011 schedule and 32 ranked team would have won half their games against BYU's 2004 schedule. That's a pretty stark difference.

But, you're right that 2003 and 2004 stand as historical outliers by almost any SOS metric, and the Bronco regime has never come close to a schedule like 2003 or 2004. Still, 2011 was a poor schedule even relative to just the other bronco years (64.7 for the other Bronco years).

[MarkGrace]

that's easy:

31 for 91 yards versus Ole Miss
23 for 43 yards versus Texas
22 for 11 yards versus Utah
32 for 127 yards versus Central Florida
46 for 200 yards versus Utah State
44 for 224 yards versus San Jose State
48 for 282 yards versus Oregon State
44 for 290 yards versus Idaho State
50 for 139 yards versus TCU
42 for 243 yards versus Idaho
34 for 173 yards versus New Mexico State
38 for 167 yards versus Hawaii
40 for 94 yards versus Tulsa

there seems to be more of a difference between games with heaps and games with Riley, as opposed to games against "good" teams as opposed to games against poor teams. But then that's just me I guess.

Or, you know, games where they inserted the obvious RB and the o-line could move again versus the games where those things weren't in play. How different are the ypc against Idaho and NMSU versus the Riley games against similar cupcakes? Just eyeballing it I would say not terribly different.

[Indy Coug]

SOS, of course, is one of those difficul things to define well. Sagarin tries to compute it based on how good would you have to be to win 50% of the games on your schedule. Sagarin would predict that the 86th ranked team would have won half their games against BYU's 2011 schedule and 32 ranked team would have won half their games against BYU's 2004 schedule. That's a pretty stark difference.

But, you're right that 2003 and 2004 stand as historical outliers by almost any SOS metric, and the Bronco regime has never come close to a schedule like 2003 or 2004. Still, 2011 was a poor schedule even relative to just the other bronco years (64.7 for the other Bronco years).

I think 1991 takes the prize for toughest SOS.

Final AP Rankings:

Penn State - 3rd
Florida State - 4th
Iowa - 10th
UCLA - 19th
AFA - 25th

We finished 1-3-1 against these teams in Detmer's senior season.

[Commando]

that's easy:

31 for 91 yards versus Ole Miss
23 for 43 yards versus Texas
22 for 11 yards versus Utah
32 for 127 yards versus Central Florida
46 for 200 yards versus Utah State
44 for 224 yards versus San Jose State
48 for 282 yards versus Oregon State
44 for 290 yards versus Idaho State
50 for 139 yards versus TCU
42 for 243 yards versus Idaho
34 for 173 yards versus New Mexico State
38 for 167 yards versus Hawaii
40 for 94 yards versus Tulsa

there seems to be more of a difference between games with heaps and games with Riley, as opposed to games against "good" teams as opposed to games against poor teams. But then that's just me I guess.

Nice. I just don't know where to access stats I guess . I would like to examine Riley's rushing per game as well, as I'm under the unvetted impression that he adds 50 yards or so per game.

[Commando]

Under Bronco, that average is 68.3. 2003 and 2004 are among the 3 or 4 toughest schedules in BYU history.

Funny- Crowton probably over-performed those years- maintained the status quo at least- if anything; I mean we did lose to UNLV at home in 04, but we came within a hare's breath of beating Boise State in Boise and having a winning season.

[Indy Coug]

Nice. I just don't know where to access stats I guess .

http://www.cougarstats.com