In which I discuss the sports teams at the University of Michigan

[woot]

Trey Burke, the bball team's new point guard, looks pretty good. They've got everybody back except for Darius Morris, and while Burke won't replace his great set-up and game-management skills any time soon, he's already twice the shooter and quicker on the drive too. Michigan's side of the Maui bracket is brutal so that'll be a good test. I'm hoping for a 3rd-place B10 finish at worst.

[San Juan Sun]

Just got my ticket for the Michigan/Nebraska game this Saturday. Should be fun.

[Omaha 680]

If Nebraska can ground and pound with some zone read and speed option mixed in, and resist the temptation to have Martinez fall over backwards hucking the ball all over the field I think they win. Michigan State has a better rush defense than Michigan, and Nebraska was able to gash them for nearly twice their season average. The keys were keeping the pass attempts down while not asking Martinez to make throws he shouldn't and being patient with the running game.

Granted, this is in Ann Arbor, not Lincoln.

[Paperback Writer]

If Nebraska can ground and pound with some zone read and speed option mixed in, and resist the temptation to have Martinez fall over backwards hucking the ball all over the field I think they win. Michigan State has a better rush defense than Michigan, and Nebraska was able to gash them for nearly twice their season average. The keys were keeping the pass attempts down while not asking Martinez to make throws he shouldn't and being patient with the running game.

Granted, this is in Ann Arbor, not Lincoln.

I'll only add that Tim Beck (Nebraska's OC) needs to mix in a good dose of play-action passes. Martinez can hit (or at least get the ball to) open receivers when the defense sells out to stop the run. IMO, this is critical - to force a defense to respect the pass. Otherwise, the Wolverines will just stack the box and Nebraka's OL isn't good enough to overcome that. The key, as you stated, is to not ask Martinez to make throws he shouldn't. Another way of stating this is to not ask Martinez to make throws into unfavorable coverages. The guy can make all the throws even if he has the passing mechanics of my 12-year old daughter. He gets into trouble when he is asked to make those throws into unfavorable coverages that he struggles to read correctly.

[Coach McGuirk]

Oops. Hail to the Victoria's Secret appears to know nothing of Michigan sports.

[woot]

I'm still a bit worried about Nebraska, but given the progress of Michigan's starting corners and the extremely good performance from the DL in recent weeks, I think Michigan will be able to stop the option attack and force Martinez to throw.

I'm a little concerned about the lack of experience on D, especially on the edges (3 freshmen starters, including both OLBs) given the assignment responsibility of every player in defending the option. I also think that while Mattison deserves coordinator of the year due to Michigan's triple-digit jump in scoring defense over last year, Michigan is actually a 2-3 years away from having a truly elite defense. They have been awesome on 3rd and 1, allowing 6 first downs on 19 such situations during Big10 play, which is seriously incredible. They're also great on 3rd and long; Mattison's zone blitzes are almost guaranteed to produce a sack. The in-between stuff might be dicey. But Michigan has been been uncannily good at not giving up the big play this season, and I think that'll continue.

The offense worries me more, but Nebraska has been vulnerable against dual-threat QBs (losses to Wiscy and NW) so far, despite playing against one every day in practice. Denard hasn't put up big numbers in a while, and I think he's due for at least a moderately effective game. Nebraska's defense is a bit down this year, at least relative to the very strong Ds in this year's Big10. They've got one really good corner, but not much after that, and their DL is vulnerable since their All-American DT Jared Crick went down a couple weeks ago. I think they'll need to stack the box to stop the run, and I think Borges will find ways to get Denard some easy throws over the top, and because Nebraska's pass rush is weak, Denard will hit his guys.

I'll say 30-24 Michigan (but subtract 10 points from Michigan's total if the I-form shows up more than once on their first possession. I don't expect it will, but the new OC might just be that stubborn).

[Paperback Writer]

I'm still a bit worried about Nebraska, but given the progress of Michigan's starting corners and the extremely good performance from the DL in recent weeks, I think Michigan will be able to stop the option attack and force Martinez to throw.

I'm a little concerned about the lack of experience on D, especially on the edges (3 freshmen starters, including both OLBs) given the assignment responsibility of every player in defending the option. I also think that while Mattison deserves coordinator of the year due to Michigan's triple-digit jump in scoring defense over last year, Michigan is actually a 2-3 years away from having a truly elite defense. They have been awesome on 3rd and 1, allowing 6 first downs on 19 such situations during Big10 play, which is seriously incredible. They're also great on 3rd and long; Mattison's zone blitzes are almost guaranteed to produce a sack. The in-between stuff might be dicey. But Michigan has been been uncannily good at not giving up the big play this season, and I think that'll continue.

The offense worries me more, but Nebraska has been vulnerable against dual-threat QBs (losses to Wiscy and NW) so far, despite playing against one every day in practice. Denard hasn't put up big numbers in a while, and I think he's due for at least a moderately effective game. Nebraska's defense is a bit down this year, at least relative to the very strong Ds in this year's Big10. They've got one really good corner, but not much after that, and their DL is vulnerable since their All-American DT Jared Crick went down a couple weeks ago. I think they'll need to stack the box to stop the run, and I think Borges will find ways to get Denard some easy throws over the top, and because Nebraska's pass rush is weak, Denard will hit his guys.

I'll say 30-24 Michigan (but subtract 10 points from Michigan's total if the I-form shows up more than once on their first possession. I don't expect it will, but the new OC might just be that stubborn).

Fairly accurate summation. One correction though: Nebraska also has one of the better LBs in the Big Ten in Lavonte David. He's been more valuable than Alfonso Denard at CB (the really good corner). Nebraska doesn't put much pressure on the QB because their DL is only so-so and the Pelini's haven't chosen to blitz much. I thought that would change against MSU but it didn't. I think the Blackshirts stay in coverage and hope Robinson throws a few picks. Rather than trying to put pressure on Robinson, they will stay in their lanes and contain Robinson from busting a big play (hopefully). I expect Borges to run a lot of zone read option and rollouts/QB keepers because Nebraska seems to struggle against mobile QBs (as you stated). When Michigan passes, they will try to iso the "other CB" before safety help can arrive. That's best done over the middle against this defense.

On offense, I think the Michigan D will slow down Nebraska's option attack. But the one-thing Martinez can do somewhat well is the "in-between" stuff. That's where the offense will attack and I think Nebraska may pass it more than most expect. Nebraska's OL and isn't up to a ground pound attack against the Michigan D unless it's late in the game and the Michigan D has been on the field too much. It's hard to predict this Nebraska offense. They chose to slug it out against PSU and MSU and won. But I don't see Nebraska's doing the same against Michigan unless Nebraska has the luxary of a lead and is trying to run down the clock. I look for the pass to set up the run in this game. Crazy, I know. The teams are well matched. I see Nebraska having an advantage on special teams. My prediction: Nebraska 23 Michigan 21 (Nebraska wins on a last second FG).

Edit: I'm feeling bold so I'll make another prediction: Nebraska busts a big play on 3rd and long when the Michigan D calls a zone blitz and Martinez runs right by it on a designed QB draw.

[woot]

Fairly accurate summation. One correction though: Nebraska also has one of the better LBs in the Big Ten in Lavonte David. He's been more valuable than Alfonso Denard at CB (the really good corner). Nebraska doesn't put much pressure on the QB because their DL is only so-so and the Pelini's haven't chosen to blitz much. I thought that would change against MSU but it didn't. I think the Blackshirts stay in coverage and hope Robinson throws a few picks. Rather than trying to put pressure on Robinson, they will stay in their lanes and contain Robinson from busting a big play (hopefully). I expect Borges to run a lot of zone read option and rollouts/QB keepers because Nebraska seems to struggle against mobile QBs (as you stated). When Michigan passes, they will try to iso the "other CB" before safety help can arrive. That's best done over the middle against this defense.

On offense, I think the Michigan D will slow down Nebraska's option attack. But the one-thing Martinez can do somewhat well is the "in-between" stuff. That's where the offense will attack and I think Nebraska may pass it more than most expect. Nebraska's OL and isn't up to a ground pound attack against the Michigan D unless it's late in the game and the Michigan D has been on the field too much. It's hard to predict this Nebraska offense. They chose to slug it out against PSU and MSU and won. But I don't see Nebraska's doing the same against Michigan unless Nebraska has the luxary of a lead and is trying to run down the clock. I look for the pass to set up the run in this game. Crazy, I know. The teams are well matched. I see Nebraska having an advantage on special teams. My prediction: Nebraska 23 Michigan 21 (Nebraska wins on a last second FG).

Edit: I'm feeling bold so I'll make another prediction: Nebraska busts a big play on 3rd and long when the Michigan D calls a zone blitz and Martinez runs right by it on a designed QB draw.

Well done. Nebraska's LBs seem strong overall, so I assume that Michigan will do fine getting a few yards per rush, and a lot will depend on whether the OL can get out on the LBs. The left side of the line tends to be really good at that; not so much the RG and RT.

Iowa let Denard throw, preferring to contain his scrambling. It worked pretty well, although as I recall he actually had a pretty good day throwing, especially given the weather. I think there were quite a few WR drops that game. So, I sort of hope Nebraska does the same, and that Denard can make them pay this time. He rarely scrambles, so it continues to surprise me how many DCs gameplan around keeping him from doing so. He has been a little better about that this year compared to last, but it's still not really his thing.

With OSU looking so vulnerable, a bunch of the fans seem to be looking past this one a little bit. Hopefully none of the players are doing the same. Should be fun.

[San Juan Sun]

Just got home from Michigan Stadium.

It was very cold.
Nebraska is not very good.
Taylor Martinez has a terrible arm.
Michigan fans are decent, some heckling of the Nebraska fans there. But some of the Nebraska fans deserved it (the group sitting directly behind me was very arrogant).
Good stadium, very cramped, but a nice venue.

[woot]

Just got home from Michigan Stadium.

It was very cold.
Nebraska is not very good.
Taylor Martinez has a terrible arm.
Michigan fans are decent, some heckling of the Nebraska fans there. But some of the Nebraska fans deserved it (the group sitting directly behind me was very arrogant).
Good stadium, very cramped, but a nice venue.

Agreed about being cramped. Today's game was the second most all time. The ND game that I was at was the highest ever with about 1000 more than today. The student section was SSRO: standing sideways room only. Shame about the power outage. That got fixed in the second half it seems?

[San Juan Sun]

Agreed about being cramped. Today's game was the second most all time. The ND game that I was at was the highest ever with about 1000 more than today. The student section was SSRO: standing sideways room only. Shame about the power outage. That got fixed in the second half it seems?

Yes, the scoreboard came on just before halftime.

I'm not sure that attendance number was legit. There were rows of open seats in h upper portions of the stadium. It was at maybe 98% capacity though.

[woot]

Yes, the scoreboard came on just before halftime.

I'm not sure that attendance number was legit. There were rows of open seats in h upper portions of the stadium. It was at maybe 98% capacity though.

Everybody measures according to paid attendance + guests and staff. In Michigan Stadium, the upper rows behind the student section always look empty because the students are crowded forward. If the top rows in other areas were sparse, then it's probably due to actual lack of attendance.

[woot]

Michigan set NCAA records this year by playing against 10 bowl teams and 11 bowl-eligible teams.

They also had 4th-quarter chances to win both games they lost, and both of those games featured particularly poor performances from the OC.

I'm still not all that confident that they'll beat Va Tech in the Sugar, but the improvement from last season has been truly remarkable.

Mattison got robbed when LSU's DC was chosen for the coordinator of the year award. At least he was a finalist. I imagine the relatively poor showing against OSU is to blame.

[Paperback Writer]

Michigan set NCAA records this year by playing against 10 bowl teams and 11 bowl-eligible teams.

They also had 4th-quarter chances to win both games they lost, and both of those games featured particularly poor performances from the OC.

I'm still not all that confident that they'll beat Va Tech in the Sugar, but the improvement from last season has been truly remarkable.

Mattison got robbed when LSU's DC was chosen for the coordinator of the year award. At least he was a finalist. I imagine the relatively poor showing against OSU is to blame.

I'd only add that Michigan did NOT play their conference champion (Big Ten-Wisconsin). But an argument can be made that Nebraska didn't play them either - the Huskers appeared to just show up that night in Madison.

It's good to see Michigan back...and in a BCS bowl game. As a Nebraska fan, I think that's important for the Big Ten. I enjoyed watching Nebraska play in a new conference; just sorry the Huskers didn't play better against the Wolverines in the Big House. Next year's Michigan-Nebraska game in Lincoln should be good. The Legend division will most likely be on the line. I don't see MSU beating Michigan in Ann Arbor next season and will not think the Spartans capable of defeating the Huskers until they actually do it (Nebraska is 6-0 against MSU) even though that game will be in East Lansing. Couldn't resist putting in an arrogant statement Hard to fathom that Husker fans could come across as arrogant in the Big House after losing at home to Northwestern the week before. People will be people, I guess.

[woot]

Tonight's the big game, and I'm cautiously optimistic. Denard looked much better in the passing game the last few weeks of the season, which more than makes up for occasionally looking lost in the running game. VT hasn't played against a running spread this year, but did get torched by GT. They are weak on both lines, so I could see Michigan pounding them into submission without needing to throw much. Their QB scares me, but I would guess that Michigan wins.

In other news, I don't know if anyone has been following the DeAnthony Arnett saga, but it seems that as of this morning he's finally been released to transfer to either UM or MSU from Tennessee. Here's a lesson: If somebody wants to transfer from your program, wish them well. I doubt Dooley recovers from this. Even the players that remain at Tennessee have been tweeting their frustrations about how many recruits they lost over this. I don't know if UM will get Arnett, or whether they even want him, but it's great that he'll get a chance to play for a BCS school while being there for his ailing father.

Recruiting has been very quiet, as all 5 or 6 players still on the radar plan to announce late. UM's still in it for a bunch of really big names, but they'll probably also take a lower-rated TE, as the OC seems determined to have 3 TEs in this class no matter what. The third was committed, but defected to Oregon a couple weeks ago, leaving few options.

The basketball team is looking pretty good. Hardaway really struggled the other night, but the true freshman point guard has been spectacular. 2-0 in B10 play, with a huge game at Indiana on Thursday. Smotrycz reminds me a lot of Hartsock, but with more talent a lot less polish.