The Official Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl Thread

[pelagius]

Right, I took BYU's record and traded the loss to Utah into the win column. So the assumption would be 10-2 in all the other games.

Maybe, but you have to think about replaying everyone from scratch. Utah could easily lose to Utah (or plug in team with near identical quality to yourself and thinking about playing them), Tulsa, Texas, and TCU. Also, there is a decent probability that they slip up on some other part of the schedule. Sure, Utah could have went undefeated with that schedule. Maybe, they go 9-4. But given the data we have, the expectation is they go 10-3. Of course, maybe Utah was just unlucky andthey are much better than a #40 ranked team. If that's the case, then one would expect better than 10-3. I don't see much reason to believe that's the case but it is possible.

[Jeff Lebowski]

You people really have no effing idea what it means to underachieve. Seriously. You should try being a Texas fan for a while.

[Coach McGuirk]

You people really have no effing idea what it means to underachieve. Seriously. You should try being a Texas fan for a while.

That national championship eating at you?

[ERCougar]

You are missing the main point of discontent. Utah would have gone at worst 11-2 with BYU's schedule this season. Yet I much prefer being 7-5(hopefully 8-5) with the schedule that we played. And it is not even close.

Ok...I guess I'm not being clear here. Aside from our respective conferences (I mentioned PAC12 as the legitimate reason for wanting to switch places with Utah), which position is preferable? In other words, why are BYU fans, with their better final ranking, better bowl opponent, and similar outlook for next year, so much more pessimistic about their season than Utah fans? Maybe we can't separate the conference affiliation from the argument, but then isn't that where the anger should be directed, and not at the coaches or players (which is where it seems to be right now)?

Of course, maybe BYU fans are just striving for greatness.

*Lest I be again misunderstood--and I can't count how many times I've said this--I'd take the PAC12 and the road trips and opponents and even mediocre records over independence (and even the Big12). But that's not a choice, and it's not even really the focus of the dissatisfaction here.

[Jeff Lebowski]

That national championship eating at you?

No, that was great. Is BYU's NC eating at you? Since 1971, BYU and Texas have exactly the same number of national championships.

With the recruiting classes Texas gets they should be top 5 every year and playing for the NC every 2-3 years (more like Florida, LSU, Bama). You may be satisfied with mediocrity, but not me!

Here is how Texas's recruiting classes have ranked over the past 10 years (compare to BYU/Utah):

2012 1
2011 3
2010 3
2009 7
2008 16
2007 3
2006 3
2005 13
2004 10
2003 14
2002 1

[Jarid in Cedar]

Of course, maybe BYU fans are just striving for greatness.

*Lest I be again misunderstood--and I can't count how many times I've said this--I'd take the PAC12 and the road trips and opponents and even mediocre records over independence (and even the Big12). But that's not a choice, and it's not even really the focus of the dissatisfaction here.

Most Utah fans strive for greatness. Many are not fully satisfied with the outcomes this season, overall. The bar of greatness is harder to achieve in the Pac-12, so there is some satisfaction with the successes and failures that are associated with trying to reach higher.

I would compare Utah's 10-3 last year to BYU's 10-3 this year. Each left you thinking that the teams did not achieve all that was possible.

[smokymountainrain]

Ok...I guess I'm not being clear here. Aside from our respective conferences (I mentioned PAC12 as the legitimate reason for wanting to switch places with Utah), which position is preferable? In other words, why are BYU fans, with their better final ranking, better bowl opponent, and similar outlook for next year, so much more pessimistic about their season than Utah fans? Maybe we can't separate the conference affiliation from the argument, but then isn't that where the anger should be directed, and not at the coaches or players (which is where it seems to be right now)?

Of course, maybe BYU fans are just striving for greatness.

*Lest I be again misunderstood--and I can't count how many times I've said this--I'd take the PAC12 and the road trips and opponents and even mediocre records over independence (and even the Big12). But that's not a choice, and it's not even really the focus of the dissatisfaction here.

FWIW, ER, I get your point, but I don't get why so many are having such a hard time with it.

[woot]

I guess where BSU, TCU, Utah, etc does with lesser ranked classes?

As I've tried to explain, that is not a reasonable expectation. BSU has a freaky good coach, which has led to a huge schematic advantage and awesome player development. TCU has a similar situation, although perhaps to a lesser extent. Utah is done making noise for a while, but were also able to develop some underrated or mediocre recruits into world beaters in a way that BYU hasn't been able to. Each of those seasons also involved really poor schedules, which BYU doesn't look to have again. Either way, their best seasons involved a couple standard deviations worth of overachieving based on available talent. It's just silly to expect that anywhere, and especially so at BYU given the particularly poor offensive personnel (outside of a couple receivers) and scheme (which we can only hope will improve).

I guess I just don't get why anyone would expect such a high magnitude of overachievement. Even the schools that get top-5 recruiting classes every year struggle to be consistent. Our barely top-60 talent should have us ecstatic to be consistently winning 9 or 10.

[ERCougar]

I would compare Utah's 10-3 last year to BYU's 10-3 this year. Each left you thinking that the teams did not achieve all that was possible.

Ok...makes sense, and I feel that a little.
But when I look at our specific losses:
Texas - this one hurt a little, but no one really expected a win here, and leaving that game, everyone was still pretty optimistic
Utah - a total WTF game (or half). Couldn't have expected this, but really, could coaching decisions have changed this?
TCU - this is the one that hurts the worst. But still--road loss against a good top 25 team. No shame in that.

I think all the pessimism boils down to the fact that playing Idaho State just isn't very fun.

[smokymountainrain]

Ok...makes sense, and I feel that a little.
But when I look at our specific losses:
Texas - this one hurt a little, but no one really expected a win here, and leaving that game, everyone was still pretty optimistic
Utah - a total WTF game (or half). Couldn't have expected this, but really, could coaching decisions have changed this?
TCU - this is the one that hurts the worst. But still--road loss against a good top 25 team. No shame in that.

I think all the pessimism boils down to the fact that playing Idaho State just isn't very fun.

And two of those losses were with a back up QB who isn't even on the team any more. So the BYU team we watched yesterday, essentially lost one game against a very good football team in a virtual road game, (yes TCU was an excellent team when they beat BYU as they beat a top 5 team in Boise at Boise) yet we are calling the season a disappointment. Yes, the first part of the year was indeed, a disppointment when they didn't have a QB, but they got it together after that and won every game they were supposed to win.

[Coach McGuirk]

As I've tried to explain, that is not a reasonable expectation. BSU has a freaky good coach, which has led to a huge schematic advantage and awesome player development. TCU has a similar situation, although perhaps to a lesser extent. Utah is done making noise for a while, but were also able to develop some underrated or mediocre recruits into world beaters in a way that BYU hasn't been able to. Each of those seasons also involved really poor schedules, which BYU doesn't look to have again. Either way, their best seasons involved a couple standard deviations worth of overachieving based on available talent. It's just silly to expect that anywhere, and especially so at BYU given the particularly poor offensive personnel (outside of a couple receivers) and scheme (which we can only hope will improve).

I guess I just don't get why anyone would expect such a high magnitude of overachievement. Even the schools that get top-5 recruiting classes every year struggle to be consistent. Our barely top-60 talent should have us ecstatic to be consistently winning 9 or 10.

Everyone else is the exception, we are the rule. Got it.

[Coach McGuirk]

No, that was great. Is BYU's NC eating at you? Since 1971, BYU and Texas have exactly the same number of national championships.

With the recruiting classes Texas gets they should be top 5 every year and playing for the NC every 2-3 years (more like Florida, LSU, Bama). You may be satisfied with mediocrity, but not me!

Here is how Texas's recruiting classes have ranked over the past 10 years (compare to BYU/Utah):

2012 1
2011 3
2010 3
2009 7
2008 16
2007 3
2006 3
2005 13
2004 10
2003 14
2002 1

I was just needling you. I agree. In fact I was surprised to see how little Texas had done since joining the Big 12.

[woot]

Everyone else is the exception, we are the rule. Got it.

You can't seriously be this daft. 6 or 7 seasons by 3 or 4 teams in the history of the BCS are not "everyone else".

[Coach McGuirk]

You can't seriously be this daft. 6 or 7 seasons by 3 or 4 teams in the history of the BCS are not "everyone else".

I'm just being a dick. It's kinda what I do.

But in all seriousness, why should I not expect greatness. What in you says "okay, the stats say we can't or shouldn't be able to so I am fine with that"? Maybe we are just wired differently.

[dabrockster]

Sporting BYU coat today and getting lots of "Congrats" from strangers on the great win yesterday.

FYI: No comments of QB sucking, instead they say that guy was ice under pressure...