BYU vs TCU 2011: The long-haired assassin goes to Dallas

[Goatnapper'96]

It'd be nice to believe that, but my optimism about us trending up is greatly tempered by the opposition we've faced in the last 4 games.

BYU lost to Utah by 44 points. BYU struggled to beat a very mediocre UCF and then needed a minor miracle to beat what is obviously a poor USU club. Since then BYU has trended up. The concept of movement in a trend starts with where the beginning point was. Beating OSU in a decisive manner was a clear cut improvement over losing to one of the worst team in the Pac (in a year the PAC has 6 teams that are likely to finish in the bottom half of FBS teams) by 44 points and struggling to beat two teams in the bottom quartile of FBS teams.

I think you will be surprised on Friday.

[kccougar]

I was very impressed with BYU's effort against TCU last year. I never expected them to win, but I was happy with the way the defense kept them in check through 2 or 3 quarters. I am very cautiously optimistic about Friday.

[Goatnapper'96]

I was very impressed with BYU's effort against TCU last year. I never expected them to win, but I was happy with the way the defense kept them in check through 2 or 3 quarters. I am very cautiously optimistic about Friday.

If BYU allows a minimal of long gains through the pass, does not shoot itself in the foot on special teams it should be a hard fought match.

I think both teams are marginal top 35 clubs and the winner should make it back to the top 25 if it continues to win the next one to two weeks.

The achilles heal for BYU will be if TCU can burn the BYU pass defense for long gains. I am not convinced the TCU offense can consistently chew up yardage and turn that into TDs if they are consistently starting within their own 40. There will be soft coverage and the 6-8 yard out that causes BYU fans to pull string, but I would rather force a young QB to have to complete that over and over and over than give them a couple of long ones getting behind our secondary.

Our lady of Travis Uale has his best game ever against the pass just this one time, pray for us!

[lambdacoug]

BYU lost to Utah by 44 points. BYU struggled to beat a very mediocre UCF and then needed a minor miracle to beat what is obviously a poor USU club. Since then BYU has trended up. The concept of movement in a trend starts with where the beginning point was. Beating OSU in a decisive manner was a clear cut improvement over losing to one of the worst team in the Pac (in a year the PAC has 6 teams that are likely to finish in the bottom half of FBS teams) by 44 points and struggling to beat two teams in the bottom quartile of FBS teams.

I think you will be surprised on Friday.

I hope I am.

We are a better team with Nelson under center and we have shown good signs. However I'm skeptical about just how much of the improvement is due to our weaker opponents, and how much is due to a team truly trending upwards.

[kccougar]

I also think Riley's leadership will be important this week leading up to the game.

[Goatnapper'96]

I hope I am.

We are a better team with Nelson under center and we have shown good signs. However I'm skeptical about just how much of the improvement is due to our weaker opponents, and how much is due to a team truly trending upwards.

I think you don't trully understand how much USU and UCF stunk. There was little change in the level of competition from USU and UCF to SJSU and OSU. Clearly, BYU is playing much better. I think if BYU plays those earlier games with Riley as QB, I doubt the record changes much but I think BYU stomps UCF and USU and competes with Utah.

Regardless, the point is BYU now has a chance to start a good run by beating TCU. They are in a similar situation as well.

[lambdacoug]

I think you don't trully understand how much USU and UCF stunk. There was little change in the level of competition from USU and UCF to SJSU and OSU. Clearly, BYU is playing much better. I think if BYU plays those earlier games with Riley as QB, I doubt the record changes much but I think BYU stomps UCF and USU and competes with Utah.

Regardless, the point is BYU now has a chance to start a good run by beating TCU. They are in a similar situation as well.

If we put in a good show against TCU, then that will go a long to reassuring me that we are truly trending up. I hope we do, but after that debacle at the hands of the UofU and then a near catastrophe against USU, and being embarassingly outcoached in the second half against Ole Miss, UT and the entire Utah game it will take more than wins over UCF, SJSU, ISU and OSU to convince me we are improving. Our best win of the season, IMO, is against OSU, which isn't saying much. Still too many question marks from coaching to the secondary to the running game for me to be as optimistic as you.

[Goatnapper'96]

I decided to post my TCU comment in this thread - rather than the competing one - because I think Riley is the story.

BYU QBs define themselves with trademark wins in big games.

Both Beck and Hall occasionally wet themselves in the big games and in clutch situations, but both ultimately made their legacies by breaking through in some of them. Beck really first vs TCU in 2006 and then of course wrapping up vs Utah. Max was mediocre for three quarters against Oklahoma but then put together one of the most beautifully executed drives in Cougar history to win it.

Riley's main attribute that I appreciate is that he seems fearless - seems to be able to play above the anxiety and fear of mistakes that often plagued Beck (which, it's beginning to seem, Beck and Heaps have in common).

Saturday will be a huge challenge but a golden opportunity for him to cement himself as the guy for the remainder of his BYU career and to put a big win in the books for us.

I'm excited to see what he can do though I'm not betting on the upset and I am concerned that TCU's speed and disciplined aggression on D might negate most of Riley's upside. Our last two wins against TCU (2006,2007) were won with an NFL QB making NFL style precision throws all day (2006) and BYU's stellar 2007 linebacking corps putting on a great show in 2007 (Kehl, Nixon and K Popp were nails that night).

Riley's going to need the D to show up big and a quality gameplan in place. I'm looking for the Cougs to try and establish a physical ground game going directly at the TCU D with Alisa.

This is a big game for BYU this year, but I am not sure I would categorize it as a really big game. I hope we see some bigger games again in the future, but this game is, IMO, important for BYU to win in order to position itself for the chance at those really big games. If BYU wins tough to make an argument that TCU is a solid top 25 team this year. Likely they are a club somwhere between their 2006 and 2007 teams.

Regardless, this is Riley's chance to shine on offense. On defense, I think we have the speed on the outside that for TCU to really hurt BYU they are going to have to go vertical. Well that is assuming that BYU does not screw itself with turnovers and special teams play.

Can Riley lay it all on the line and not turn the ball over against the fastest and most athletic defense he will face this year?

[Eddie]

If we put in a good show against TCU, then that will go a long to reassuring me that we are truly trending up. I hope we do, but after that debacle at the hands of the UofU and then a near catastrophe against USU, and being embarassingly outcoached in the second half against Ole Miss, UT and the entire Utah game it will take more than wins over UCF, SJSU, ISU and OSU to convince me we are improving. Our best win of the season, IMO, is against OSU, which isn't saying much. Still too many question marks from coaching to the secondary to the running game for me to be as optimistic as you.

This is a different BYU team than the one that played Ole Miss, UT, Utah, and USU.

BYU's defense has been OK all year. At a certain point of the Utah game they were simply tired, overwhelmed, and out of hope - so I admit that particular game got out of hand even for the D. And they will certainly need to play well on Friday against TCU to give Utah a chance.

The real change has been on offense. BYU found a RB who has a better combination of speed, moves, and power than any one RB had at the beginning of the season. Riley is throwing the ball OK, is running well, and has shown improved decision making that comes with experience over the past couple of games.

I'm not going to guarantee a BYU win or anything, but I think they have a much better chance to win than I would've given them midway through the USU game. Another week of practice with Riley behind center can only be a good thing for him to continue getting better.

I was hoping that Heaps would come into the ISU game and light it up - showing what he has. But he didn't. So with that in mind, I am firmly in the Riley camp - give him the reps to be ready. Give Heaps/Lark/Munns enough to be serviceable if he goes down.

[Surfah]

And the spread is growing. Ouch.

[lambdacoug]

I was hoping that Heaps would come into the ISU game and light it up - showing what he has. But he didn't..

Yeah, he laid another egg. I was hoping he could begin to build some confidence with an eye to him taking aver again after Nelson graduates. He looked awful though...

[BemidjiCoug]

Breakdown:

TCU has scored more than 35 points in all but one of their games this season (SDSU) and average 48.3 points per game. They also have allowed 40 points or more in their losses (Baylor 50, SMU 40). It should be noted that Baylor has a prolific offense and SMU (while they just scored 3 points last week against Southern Miss.) has the ability to score in bunches.

BYU has allowed over 28 points in only one game the entire season, holding teams under 20 points in 5 of their 8 games. Against Utah 31 of the 52 points that Utah scored were off turnovers 14 of which were scores by Utah's D. While BYU's Defense has been good statistically this season it has been largely a result of playing bad offenses. BYU's glaring weakness on D is their secondary and against a team that averages 48 points per game with a balanced attack I don't expect this to be one of the games that BYU holds a team under 28 points (I hope I'm wrong)

Since Riley Nelson has taken the reigns BYU has scored 137 points or an average of 10.5 points per quarter. This is a monumental improvement considering that while Jake Heaps was "the guy" BYU scored 73 points (Defense/ST responsible for 14 of those points) an average of 3.8 points per quarter (3.1 if you take out the D/ST points). TCU defense is not the same as it has been over the last 3-4 years.

IMHO, BYU vs TCU will be a high scoring game, it will also be a close game. As with most games the team that is able to win the turnover battle and have more plays of 20 yards or more (momentum plays) will win the game. As of late TCU has dominated BYU in both of these categories. This isn't the same TCU team. BYU wins.

[byu71]

I have moved from the 50/50 on whether this team is an above average squad. I am in the camp that says they are.

Friday will go a long ways to cementing that. If we get beat, I will be back on the fence. How do you decide then? They have beaten some dreadful teams and a couple of average teams. Lost to the a bit above average teams on the schedule.

Same with Riley. I he an above average QB. We will find out Friday.

[cougjunkie]

This is not your typical TCU defense. In fact BYUs defense is ranked ahead of TCUs in every major statistical category. They are very close but BYU has the edge.

Rushing Defense: BYU is 33rd, TCU 34th
Pass Defense: BYU 51st, TCU 58th
Total Defense: BYU 32nd, TCU 37th
Scoring Defense: BYU 32nd, TCU 35th
PE Defense: BYU 19th, TCU 78th
Turnovers forced: BYU 13th, TCU 48th
3rd down conversion D: BYU 39th, TCU 67th
Red zone defense; BYU 15th, TCU 96th

Also don't come back at me with the TCU has played a tougher schedule or better offenses argument. They have played Louisian-Monroe, Portland State and New Mexico in their 7 games. LA-Mon and New Mex are 2 of the worst offensive teams in the country (117 and 120). SDSU is 60th, SMU is 40th, Baylor is 2nd, Air Force is 20th.

BYU has played 3 three teams in the top 50 (UCF, Oregon State and Utah State) Texas is 72, SJSU is 82, Utah is 108 (they were much higher with Wynn somewhere in the 60s) and Ole Miss is 116.

[lambdacoug]

PE Defense: BYU 19th, TCU 78th
Turnovers forced: BYU 13th, TCU 48th
3rd down conversion D: BYU 39th, TCU 67th
Red zone defense; BYU 15th, TCU 96th

Calling the rest of the numbers a wash, these are the ones that, IMO, bode well for BYU. TCU's red zone D and 3rd down conversion D, especially.