The Heaps Reclamation Project

[Sizzle]

My dad is convinced that some kids max out their potential at an earlier age than others and therefore they are awesome and dominate in HS but their game never translates to the college level because their peers essentially outgrow them. He cites Burgess (of Roger Reid fame) and a few other athletes whom I can't remember as primary examples. He is beginning to think that Heaps falls into this category. For the sake of the program I hope he is wrong.

Having watched Heaps perform in practice, I don't think that is the case. I mean, Heaps has still had flashes when he's been comfortable when he was really good. Look at the CSU game. Look at the bowl game. Four of his last Five games in 2010 he had a passer rating above 130. Yes, it was against crappy competition. But in those games he made a lot of throws that weren't throws completed just because the competition was poor. They were big time throws. He needs a game like that to get his confidence back, to get out to just playing the game.

I know I'm coming across as a huge Heaps apologist, which isn't the case. I want whatever is best for the team, period. There very well could be things going on behind the scenes that I don't know about and should tip the scales in Riley's favor. But based on performance, I really don't see Rilely bringing much more to the table, or giving more benefit to the team than Jake has just focusing on this year. And IMO, Heaps has more upside to be a guy long term than Riley does. Maybe Jake isn't the guy. But I think it is WAY too early to be jumping ship on Jake.

[MarkGrace]

It's true. Stat geeks will take great comfort in this. Me? It's up in the air.

This is an idea I've been tossing around, and you tell me if this is crazy. This whole can't take a hit stuff and being jumpy and whatever, I don't remember it from last year. As I mentioned before, I remember him taking some decent shots last year and reacting just fine to them (the ribs against Utah). I'm wondering if because of the number of plays he runs where at some point his back ends up to the defense, he doesn't know where the pressure is coming from anymore and it's made him more jumpy.

I was watching some of his highlights from HS the other night and he's taking damn near every snap from the shotgun. His head's up, he can see the field, and he can anticipate where the pressure/potential hit is coming from. He took a lot of snaps under center last year, but most of the time they seemed like drops where his eyes are still toward the defense surveying the field. There was a play this year where after he had handed a ball off he jumped like he'd heard a shot fired out of a canon. There was no one even there to tackle him and it was just weird. Makes me wonder if when he turns his back to the defense he's losing track of the field and the pressure, so when he faces back to the defense he's trying to get rid of it as quickly as possible because he's lost track of where everything is coming from with respect to the defense. Is this a totally loco thought?

Also, side note from watching his videos. Anyone who thinks Kasen Williams made him (or Simone) is full of shit. He wasn't making short tosses that Kasen was doing all the work on or throwing bad balls that Kasen just beat DBs for and went up and got. That kid was making flat out big-time throws for a HSer.

[Shaka]

This is an idea I've been tossing around, and you tell me if this is crazy. This whole can't take a hit stuff and being jumpy and whatever, I don't remember it from last year. As I mentioned before, I remember him taking some decent shots last year and reacting just fine to them (the ribs against Utah). I'm wondering if because of the number of plays he runs where at some point his back ends up to the defense, he doesn't know where the pressure is coming from anymore and it's made him more jumpy.

I was watching some of his highlights from HS the other night and he's taking damn near every snap from the shotgun. His head's up, he can see the field, and he can anticipate where the pressure/potential hit is coming from. He took a lot of snaps under center last year, but most of the time they seemed like drops where his eyes are still toward the defense surveying the field. There was a play this year where after he had handed a ball off he jumped like he'd heard a shot fired out of a canon. There was no one even there to tackle him and it was just weird. Makes me wonder if when he turns his back to the defense he's losing track of the field and the pressure, so when he faces back to the defense he's trying to get rid of it as quickly as possible because he's lost track of where everything is coming from with respect to the defense. Is this a totally loco thought?

Also, side note from watching his videos. Anyone who thinks Kasen Williams made him (or Simone) is full of shit. He wasn't making short tosses that Kasen was doing all the work on or throwing bad balls that Kasen just beat DBs for and went up and got. That kid was making flat out big-time throws for a HSer.

I don't think you're crazy at all. Jake is jumpy and for the life of my I can't figure out why. I agree, he took some shots last year. This should not be an issue yet it is.

I'm blaming marriage.

[MarkGrace]

Having watched Heaps perform in practice, I don't think that is the case.

I don't think it's the case because Heaps coming out of HS was not a Burgess type. Burgress was man-child. One of those kids who looked like he was 30 and had been shaving since he was 12, and had done as much growing and was probably close to as physically developed as he was ever going to get. Jake came out of HS looking like a pipsqueak kid who acne all over his face. Watching his HS vids compared to where he is now, he's clearly had some growth in his physical attributes. While his arm was good in HS, it's nowhere what you see now.

[Shaka]

Maybe I'm going crazy but I found this to be quite funny. Kudos to whoever that is. I hope the fairytale comes true!

http://www.cougarboard.com/board/mes...tml?id=7508919

[MarkGrace]

Maybe I'm going crazy but I found this to be quite funny. Kudos to whoever that is. I hope the fairytale comes true!

http://www.cougarboard.com/board/mes...tml?id=7508919

This gets docked points for seemingly being an idea ripped off from JiC.

[pellegrino]

Having watched Heaps perform in practice, I don't think that is the case. I mean, Heaps has still had flashes when he's been comfortable when he was really good. Look at the CSU game. Look at the bowl game. Four of his last Five games in 2010 he had a passer rating above 130. Yes, it was against crappy competition. But in those games he made a lot of throws that weren't throws completed just because the competition was poor. They were big time throws. He needs a game like that to get his confidence back, to get out to just playing the game.

I know I'm coming across as a huge Heaps apologist, which isn't the case. I want whatever is best for the team, period. There very well could be things going on behind the scenes that I don't know about and should tip the scales in Riley's favor. But based on performance, I really don't see Rilely bringing much more to the table, or giving more benefit to the team than Jake has just focusing on this year. And IMO, Heaps has more upside to be a guy long term than Riley does. Maybe Jake isn't the guy. But I think it is WAY too early to be jumping ship on Jake.

I'm on the record for supporting whoever will get us a win. I don't think my dad is right, but I do find Jake's regression somewhat baffling given how well we've seen him play in the past.

[Sizzle]

And this is exactly why I raise the question. According to our coaches and nearly everyone who attended practices throughout the spring/fall (media, boarders, etc.), he was hitting every throw under the sun. That doesn't take me to the conclusion that he wasn't working on these things during the summer, it takes me to the conclusion that he hasn't figured out how to execute these things in a game. You can't really work on that over the summer.

But the biggest problem is I don't remember these being issues during the second half of last year. I certainly remember the accuracy stuff from the first half, but by the second half he was hitting nearly everything and has regressed in a major way. And I don't buy the inferior competition angle. As Jay stated previously, he's whiffing on basic throws with almost no pressure (or, as you said, the equivalent of a free throw). That's not competition, that's a kid who's gone mental.

And this is where I think it is the timing/pressure of the rush that is getting to him. The outs on the sideline have a little too much zip. That seems like something that happens when you're too rushed to make a throw/afraid of getting hit. That could be part of it.

Remember the struggle in the Ole Miss game in the first half? Right before the half we ran a couple of quick easy throws to get his confidence going, three step drops where the rush wasn't an issue at all. He seemed to come out as a different player in the second half. I may need to go rewatch some games, but my impression has been that he's been throwing a lot of longer developing passes to start the game and hasn't gotten into a great rhythm. He's also getting rushed and teams are keying on the play action rollouts that were working earlier in the year because we can't run the ball. There were quite a few catches that seem like easy ones that were flat out dropped by receivers, particularly in the USU game. Those types of things mess with your head/confidence where you feel like you've got to be that much more perfect instead of just throwing the ball to let your receivers make a play. I can't remember too many times where I thought he was in a rhythm and "money".

Maybe he's gone mental though. It just doesn't seem to be the most likely scenario for a kid who has been under as much scrutiny as he has his whole career, for as well as he has came in and performed during practices.

[MarkGrace]

Soph Beck vs Heaps pass rating: 129 to 98. Big difference.

How big? Hoffman dropping a TD big? Falslev having a ball go right through his hands and getting picked big?

There are just so many reasons why tossing out such a significantly team dependent stat as some type of sole measure of the peformance of one individual against another just seems a bit silly to me.

[Sizzle]

Soph Beck vs Heaps pass rating: 129 to 98. Big difference.

Sophomore Beck also has the benefit of playing a whole season with two WRs and a TE who played in the NFL. The biggest reason for the difference in passer rating is the TD/INT ratio. Do you think Heaps will throw a similar TD/INT ratio the rest of the year? FWIW, Beck was 4 TDs to 4 INTs through his first 5 games his Sophomore year. Not that far off from Heaps IMO.

[Sizzle]

This is an idea I've been tossing around, and you tell me if this is crazy. This whole can't take a hit stuff and being jumpy and whatever, I don't remember it from last year. As I mentioned before, I remember him taking some decent shots last year and reacting just fine to them (the ribs against Utah). I'm wondering if because of the number of plays he runs where at some point his back ends up to the defense, he doesn't know where the pressure is coming from anymore and it's made him more jumpy.

I was watching some of his highlights from HS the other night and he's taking damn near every snap from the shotgun. His head's up, he can see the field, and he can anticipate where the pressure/potential hit is coming from. He took a lot of snaps under center last year, but most of the time they seemed like drops where his eyes are still toward the defense surveying the field. There was a play this year where after he had handed a ball off he jumped like he'd heard a shot fired out of a canon. There was no one even there to tackle him and it was just weird. Makes me wonder if when he turns his back to the defense he's losing track of the field and the pressure, so when he faces back to the defense he's trying to get rid of it as quickly as possible because he's lost track of where everything is coming from with respect to the defense. Is this a totally loco thought?

Also, side note from watching his videos. Anyone who thinks Kasen Williams made him (or Simone) is full of shit. He wasn't making short tosses that Kasen was doing all the work on or throwing bad balls that Kasen just beat DBs for and went up and got. That kid was making flat out big-time throws for a HSer.

No, I think this is a big part of it.

[jay santos]

How big? Hoffman dropping a TD big? Falslev having a ball go right through his hands and getting picked big?

There are just so many reasons why tossing out such a significantly team dependent stat as some type of sole measure of the peformance of one individual against another just seems a bit silly to me.

for example:

Taking away two of his INT's, giving him three more TD's, and changing 10 of his incompletions into completions at his average yardage turns his 98 into a 115.

I think your aversion to stats is kind of silly. Yeah it's a team game and yeah no stat is ever perfect, but you can get a pretty good picture of what's going on by looking at good stats.

[jay santos]

Sophomore Beck also has the benefit of playing a whole season with two WRs and a TE who played in the NFL. The biggest reason for the difference in passer rating is the TD/INT ratio. Do you think Heaps will throw a similar TD/INT ratio the rest of the year? FWIW, Beck was 4 TDs to 4 INTs through his first 5 games his Sophomore year. Not that far off from Heaps IMO.

The TD/INT ratio isn't the big difference.

The big difference is yards per attempt. Heaps is at 5.2. Beck was at 7.5. That's good for about a TD per game.

[TripletDaddy]

Interesting article tonight about the situation in Denver with the Broncos. Orton and Tebow. Orton shows promise but is struggling in games, Tebow is a fan favorite despite showing sub par ability in training camp. The similarities are pretty striking, actually.

What I find interesting is the united front among management and players. The message? Orton is the guy, so get used to it. Also, stop chanting Tebows name and start supporting the other team members. The rationale? They want Orton to develop.

This sort of support, especially coming from teammates, is very interesting, if not risky.

Very little has been said here about the rest of the Cougar squad, as much has been focused on Heaps and Nelson. But if it is true that some of the players/starters started trying harder with Nelson and were dogging it out of frustration with Heaps, then that is pretty bush league and amateur, which I guess they are both. Most of the skill position players on the offense have blown chunks this season or at least parts of it. There are better ways of expressing frustration than by dogging it or giving less than your best. That really bothered me, truthfully, although it was evident that they were playing harder for Nelson. I also think BYU fans that are chanting for Nelson to be put it are boneheads. Then again, they are boneheads anyway. At the game, a guy behind us cheered loudly when a kickoff went out of bounds inside the 10. He was so happy that USU would start "pinned" back near the goal line. I guess he wasn't aware that the ball comes out to the 40. Bonehead.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/d...ting-qb-100311

[pelagius]

The TD/INT ratio isn't the big difference.

The big difference is yards per attempt. Heaps is at 5.2. Beck was at 7.5. That's good for about a TD per game.

True. To illustrate note that the following: project everything the same except for touchdowns over a 13 game season (i.e., use the projections that Sizzle did in his post except for touchdowns). How many touchdowns would Heaps have to throw to achieve an efficiency rating of 129? It's like 50 touchdowns in the next 8 games. His yards per attempt really drags his efficiency down.