What were you thinking.....honestly...

[Goatnapper'96]

I have been reading, listening to, and participating in various discussions re: the state of BYU football right now and I was wondering how the pulse of CUF would answer....

Many seem to be in either panic mode or, at the very least, despair/shock over the team's current record. Admittedly, the outlook for this season looks dim at best.

I referenced before that SC fans are having a difficult time with the fact that the team is not competing for a national championship in the coming seasons, yet the writing was clearly on the wall.

I am seeing some similarities now amongst BYU fans. Everyone knew this was going to be a rebuilding year. Everyone knew BYU had lost the core and heart of the team....over the past couple of seasons, Max, Collie, Pitta, Unga et al... Everyone knew that Riley can't throw a deep ball and everyone knew that Jake Heaps was going to be a true Freshman.

So what were your honest expectations going into this season? Does the shock/panic indicate that many ignored the writing on the wall? Is 1-4 really that shocking? Is a 6 win season that unbelievable?

For my part, I knew we would not compete for a conference championship, let alone anything more glamorous than that. I hoped, yes...but I knew hope would be futile. I guess I did buy into the Kool-Aid a bit in that I assumed that we would NOT lose to teams like Utah State. Losing to FSU on the road I can understand, but I thought we would handle schools like Reno and USU. Granted, UNR is having a great and unexpected season, but that is not an excuse.

Having gone through the Matt Barkley drama, I can honestly say that I never expected Heaps to go undefeated, but I did expect him to lay a foundation for a solid future. True freshman generally can't win all your games for you. Thus far, I am actually really pleased with Heaps. He has a lot of work to do, but he has the tools.

I was thinking we would win approx 7 games. I was obviously off on that. I am thinking we will likely win around 5 games now. Interestingly, that may be enough to go a bowl this year...a sad commentary on the state of the college football bowl system.

I was expecting 7-8 regular season wins. I figured BYU would be significantly worse than both TCU and Utah, but felt that the program was at a point where even in rebuilding years BYU is still better than AF. Given the youth I could see another conference loss outside of TCU and Utah, but I figured the worst case scenario was 3 MWC losses and 2 OOC losses.

I can accept that UNR was better and so is AF. However, not competing and the game against USU are indicators that there are deeper issues. I am more frustrated in the defensive performance than on offense. I could list the specifics, but suffice it to say I do not think this team is reaching its potential.

I still believe the future is bright and I see a lot about Jake Heaps I like. I think BYU is a good choice to be the most improved team in college football next year. I also think that bad years can be renewing in a lot of ways.

[woot]

I was thinking between 6-6 and 8-4, with the assumption being that BYU has more talented athletes than most of the other teams in the conference, and because Bronco has proven to be able to win. Those expectations rose after the Washington game, since I'd heard that Washington was supposed to be really good this year, and the 2-QB system seemed to work better than I expected.

Those expectations were misplaced, but I don't think anyone could have predicted the team would be mishandled so terribly.

[jay santos]

I'm pretty upset. I expected a rebuilding season. This doesn't even feel like a rebuilding year. It feels like everything's going wrong and it's a total surprise to the coaches.

This rebuilding year feels a lot more like 2002/2003 or 1997 (when the rebuilding year seems for naught and didn't translate into greatness in the near future) than years like 1995 and 2000 when we were getting inexperienced players some PT for future greatness.

[Top Ute]

Oh and I stand by what I said, Jake will kill Utah. The defense however may not.

Hell, Max Hill never excelled vs. Utah. But a QB with a PER well below triple figures will?

[Commando]

hmm. I don't know if any solid conclusions can be made from the Utah State game. This is the team that played Oklahoma to the wire but got its ass kicked HARD by San Diego State.

I sort of hope we merely fell victim to a Mr. Hyde ass smashing and we work hard to shore up our red zone offense and make some scheme adjustments to match our personnel, like getting the ball to Falsev during an offensive play. I wouldn't mind if weadjusted training to our specific problems, too, like telling our WR's that they can't practice routes or crackthe 2 deep unless they spend an hour a day in front of the tennis ball machine.

I guess to answer your question re: expectations, I always hoped for the best-- especially after the UW game and especially this year I didn't want to leave the MWC to a round-robin ass kicking from the conference.

[cougjunkie]

Hell, Max Hill never excelled vs. Utah. But a QB with a PER well below triple figures will?

By not excelling you mean going 2-1 in his career vs Utah?

[DapperDan]

I was expecting 8-4 to 6-6 with the difference being a couple plays that could have gone either way. The losses to Nevada and AFA did not surprise me, getting our asses handed to us did.

Overall, the implosion of the team and watching them quit is what really has been unexpected.

[jay santos]

I'm probably mostly disappointed with Heaps. I'm just not feeling it. Barkley had a pass rating of 131 last year. Heaps is 89. The ten year NCAA average is 130 with st dev of 16.4. Heaps is 2.5 st dev's below the average. That's really really really really bad for your guys who never took stats.

I know it's not all about stats and Heaps has had some drops and some extenuating circumstances. But I look at him and I see a QB that might be a decent D1 QB in two years not a guy who should be leading a program like BYU's.

[Sizzle]

Oh and I stand by what I said, Jake will kill Utah. The defense however may not.

In Jake I trust. However, in guys like Luke Ashworthless, McKay Scaredsen, I don't have confidence.

[MartyFunkhouser]

I expected to win at least 8 games. Thinking that WYoming, UNM, UNLV, Utah State, Colorado State, and SDSU were all gimmes. I thought we would be AFA, and Nevada. That would give us 8 wins and if we could somehow upset Washington we could easily get to 9 and then Utah and the bowl game were both tossups.

I still think we can beat SDSU on Saturday, then beat Wyoming, UNM, UNLV and Colorado State (man we have an awful home schedule remaining). That gives us 6 wins and we go bowling.

Oh and I stand by what I said, Jake will kill Utah. The defense however may not.

I'm very interested to see why you think this other than your hope of hope that he will. He sure didn't kill Utah St, with several starters out, and I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Utah's defense is better than Utah St's defense.

Hey at least you aren't predicting a 2 plus TD victory over Utah anymore.

[Coach McGuirk]

I'm probably mostly disappointed with Heaps. I'm just not feeling it. Barkley had a pass rating of 131 last year. Heaps is 89. The ten year NCAA average is 130 with st dev of 16.4. Heaps is 2.5 st dev's below the average. That's really really really really bad for your guys who never took stats.

I know it's not all about stats and Heaps has had some drops and some extenuating circumstances. But I look at him and I see a QB that might be a decent D1 QB in two years not a guy who should be leading a program like BYU's.

That is what you're most disappointed in? You should pay attention more.

[Top Ute]

By not excelling you mean going 2-1 in his career vs Utah?

No, by having some of the greatest skill position players surrounding him during his three years and being held way below his per-game season averages in all three games. Hall was never the decisive factor in any BYU win against Utah.

[Sizzle]

I know it's not all about stats and Heaps has had some drops and some extenuating circumstances.

To say he's had some drops is an understatement in my mind. He had 8+ just last week. That is 4.2 standard deviations above the norm of 3 drops per game. For people who haven't taken stats, that is a number that blows your bell curve out of the water.

Heaps will be fine. He looks better/more poised and more accurate as a Freshman than Beck did in game situations. He will be fine.

[Sizzle]

No, by having some of the greatest skill position players surrounding him during his three years and being held way below his per-game season averages in all three games. Hall was never the decisive factor in any BYU win against Utah.

How many standard deviations away from the average was it? I need to know if it is bad or really really bad.

[wally]

I was thinking that by now BYU would be at least 3-2, with a chance to go 8-4.

But then I was making the assumption that players and coaches were living right on and off the field.