The Big 12 expansion groundswell

[Color Me Badd Fan]

So with the B1G news today, someone tell me what incentive the Big XII has to offer more than one more full share spot? First one to jump gets a full share.

Will only one Arizona team go? It seems like they have the same Board of Trustees.

Do Fox and ESPN sign off on Utah and ASU each getting a full share?

[Jeff Lebowski]

So with the B1G news today, someone tell me what incentive the Big XII has to offer more than one more full share spot? First one to jump gets a full share.

First one to jump gets a full share. ESPN has agreed to 4 additions at full rate. Fox has agreed to 2. So it is possible that Fox could greenlight #3 and #4, but not a guarantee. Even a partial share for the duration of this contract is light years better then the alternative.

Very curious of this B1G talk. All indications are that they do not have a pro rata clause. But I am sure they could go back to the media companies and ask for a change. I can also see the P12 schools agreeing to come in at budget rates. It is a buyer's market right now.

[Jeff Lebowski]

First one to jump gets a full share. ESPN has agreed to 4 additions at full rate. Fox has agreed to 2. So it is possible that Fox could greenlight #3 and #4, but not a guarantee. Even a partial share for the duration of this contract is light years better then the alternative.

Very curious of this B1G talk. All indications are that they do not have a pro rata clause. But I am sure they could go back to the media companies and ask for a change. I can also see the P12 schools agreeing to come in at budget rates. It is a buyer's market right now.

Like I said:

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[Color Me Badd Fan]

Like I said:

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The BCS money that everyone was worried about 15-20 years ago is peanuts compared to the numbers being thrown around right now. College football went from being underpaid to now being overpaid.

Are we really sure the Big 10 is worth 70 million per team, per year? Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and USC, sure, but most of the remainder of the conference aren't worth half that. The inability of the Pac 9...8...7 to get a TV deal that isn't The Mountain bad makes it seem the networks are thinking they overpaid. That should give the Big 10 ample pause to add Oregon and UW -- they're not worth $70 million per year.

[Jeff Lebowski]

The BCS money that everyone was worried about 15-20 years ago is peanuts compared to the numbers being thrown around right now. College football went from being underpaid to now being overpaid.

Are we really sure the Big 10 is worth 70 million per team, per year? Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and USC, sure, but most of the remainder of the conference aren't worth half that. The inability of the Pac 9...8...7 to get a TV deal that isn't The Mountain bad makes it seem the networks are thinking they overpaid. That should give the Big 10 ample pause to add Oregon and UW -- they're not worth $70 million per year.

Agreed. Would not be at all surprised to see a pullback on the next round.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Agreed. Would not be at all surprised to see a pullback on the next round.

The NFL makes $10 billion per year on TV. They play 272 regular season games. For the sake of sake of simplicity, let's say 10 of the Big 10 games count for the contract, that's 80 games. 70 million* 16 is 1.12 billion. Let's be conservative and only assign 75% of that TV money to football. I'm leaving out the postseason here, but the networks are paying on average 36 million per NFL game and 10 million per Big 10 game.

All things considered, the average NFL game has to be more than 3.6x more valuable than the average Big 10 game.

[SteelBlue]

First one to jump gets a full share. ESPN has agreed to 4 additions at full rate. Fox has agreed to 2. So it is possible that Fox could greenlight #3 and #4, but not a guarantee. Even a partial share for the duration of this contract is light years better then the alternative.

If that first team is Arizona, I think you could make a pretty good case for leaving the other two out this round. This assumes the B1G changes are happening too. Are Utah, ASU, OSU and a bunch of MWC teams enough to be a destabilizing factor anymore? I feel like Fox could easily say "we can get them cheaper later if the numbers make sense, they aren't going anywhere."

[Jeff Lebowski]

If that first team is Arizona, I think you could make a pretty good case for leaving the other two out this round. This assumes the B1G changes are happening too. Are Utah, ASU, OSU and a bunch of MWC teams enough to be a destabilizing factor anymore? I feel like Fox could easily say "we can get them cheaper later if the numbers make sense, they aren't going anywhere."

Agreed. BY and the B12 should be very strategic here and not add teams just to add teams.

[Shaka]

I think B12 should add AZ and then make ASU and UofU sweat for a month or two.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I think B12 should add AZ and then make ASU and UofU sweat for a month decade or two.

FIFY

[Jeff Lebowski]

I am thinking back and I honestly don't remember a single ute fan ever saying something like, "I wish the P12 would add BYU". Never. Not once. Not even the nice Utah fans. And especially not the Utah coaches or administrators. It is because they had a massive institutional advantage and it would be dumb to extend that to their rival. So why on earth are there so many BYU fans lobbying for Utah in the B12? I don't get it.

[Pelado]

I am thinking back and I honestly don't remember a single ute fan ever saying something like, "I wish the P12 would add BYU". Never. Not once. Not even the nice Utah fans. And especially not the Utah coaches or administrators. It is because they had a massive institutional advantage and it would be dumb to extend that to their rival. So why on earth are there so many BYU fans lobbying for Utah in the B12? I don't get it.

Too accustomed to turning cheeks.

[Green Monstah]

I am thinking back and I honestly don't remember a single ute fan ever saying something like, "I wish the P12 would add BYU". Never. Not once. Not even the nice Utah fans. And especially not the Utah coaches or administrators. It is because they had a massive institutional advantage and it would be dumb to extend that to their rival. So why on earth are there so many BYU fans lobbying for Utah in the B12? I don't get it.

I like the rivalry. We're also in different times. It's B1G/SEC versus the rest. The rest needs to be as strong and profitable as possible. Love them or hate them, the football Utes are reigning 2-time conference champions.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

If you look at the TV ratings week by week last year it's clear that the Big 12 did fairly well. Maybe I need to look at the cumulative ratings, but they did better than the Pac 10 and ACC. This is just a random week, but this is fairly representative. TCU vs West Virginia beat Stanford vs UCLA.

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[myboynoah]

I think B12 should add AZ and then make ASU and UofU sweat for a month or two.

And then offer them partial shares. I would not want BYU taking even a penny less than $31.7 million just so uofutah can join the XII.