The Big 12 expansion groundswell

[Omaha 680]

I’m hopeful that Arizona, Utah, Arizona State are headed to the Big 12 (XVI).

I think the league has a lot of good rivalries if you bring the 4 Corner schools.

I do find it interesting that Colorado is all of a sudden some powerhouse overnight with Deion. They have an overall record of 48-94 since joining the PAC-12.

I agree with everything you said if football performance was the sole or even primary consideration. But with the consolidation in the past few years football performance is probably only a tie-breaker if there are equal candidates revenue-wise. And there just aren't a lot of candidates (if any) left that create value for the power 2 conferences. For the Big 12 yes because of the pro rata clause in the contract. But it's not clear to me what the cap is in the contract to add additional schools and how big the Big 12 wants to be to position for the future. Given the schools that are in the universe of possibilities, I can't imagine them going bigger than 16 and the current ceiling might be 14.

So when Utah fans or anyone else puzzles at the Colorado invite because of on-field performance or claiming that Coach Prime won't measure up they are completely missing the mark. This is about market size, national appeal, and positioning for future contracts. Which is why Utah should be nervous. They don't have national appeal and the incremental part of the SLC market that they would deliver over what the Big 12 already has with BYU isn't enough to move the needle over Arizona, Oregon, or Washington. That may be "unfair" when pointing out Utah's football performance compared to those schools the last 5 years but it's the reality.

[Omaha 680]

FWIW, I cannot find a single UA account (not just fans, but Arizona podcasters, sportswriters, etc) who are not 100% in on a move to the B12. ASAP. Seems like a certainty at this point.

From about 6 months ago when it became painfully clear to anyone without a PAC bias that the conference was in serious trouble with their TV deal, the only reason for a PAC school not to be all in on a move to the Big 12 is the potential for a Big Ten/SEC invite, whether that possibility be slight (Oregon/Washington) or a self-delusion (Utah).

[Color Me Badd Fan]

From about 6 months ago when it became painfully clear to anyone without a PAC bias that the conference was in serious trouble with their TV deal, the only reason for a PAC school not to be all in on a move to the Big 12 is the potential for a Big Ten/SEC invite, whether that possibility be slight (Oregon/Washington) or a self-delusion (Utah).

I've heard a couple times that the Big 10 doesn't want to make any more official invites because they're worried about potential litigation vs the Pac 9..8...7. They already made the first move with the LA schools and I think they could be waiting for another school after Colorado to make the move to the Big 12. At that point it's disintegrating situation involving multiple parties and the Big 10 isn't solely responsible.

I haven't studied up on the Big 10's TV money situation and who they can and can't add and when. But I don't think Oregon's eventual invite to the Big 10 is a sure thing at all, not when Stanford and its academic status, huge TV market at its geographical location and wealthy alumni base are taken into account. Washington, yes, I think it eventually gets an invite, but I can't say the Big 10 prefers Washington + Oregon over Washington + Stanford. But, of course, Stanford may not want to bother with the traveling situation.

IMO, Utah has a pretty grim situation. They're not going to get the invite to go to 14, the order is 1a Arizona or 1b UConn. The commissioner wants UConn and I don't think it's a terrible idea. They've won five of the past 24 basketball titles with three different coaches, more titles than anyone over that period and it's not just one coach. The question is whether UConn and their fanbase actually want to go to the Big 12. I think it's a mistake for Big 12 people to dismiss the move because making the Big 12 the preeminent basketball conference is a bulwark against getting picked apart in the future. It won't be the SEC competitively or money-wise or the Big 10 money-wise (though it will competitively), but it could be the third best in football and the best in basketball.

The SEC may very well expand and grab either FSU or Miami, though I don't think both. Does the Big 10 go for the other? I don't think so, they're not bluebloods like USC or UCLA, so the other goes to the Big 12. If the ACC falls apart, the SEC and Big 10 won't take all the programs. Clemson, North Carolina and Duke are probably all safe, but what about Louisville, Syracuse, Georgia Tech and NC State?

Back to the point regarding Big 12 expansion targets, it's likely that Arizona is first. If the Big 10 acts and invites Washington + Oregon, then if the Big 12 acts, the next targets will be UConn (if they want in, I don't think that's a guarantee, they like their Big East basketball) and ASU. If Stanford gets the invite instead of Oregon and if Stanford actually goes (no guarantee), then it's going to be Oregon and UConn. If UConn rejects it, then it's ASU. Utah is severely down in the pecking order. A huge amount of speculation on my part but Utah getting a Big 12 invite requires all of the following: 1) A new round of expansion from the Big 12 after 14 which likely requires the Big 10 to act; 2) The Big 10 to invite Washington and Oregon -- not Stanford --; and 3) UConn must reject the invite from the Big 12.

Even if the Big 10 doesn't act, Utah then needs to hope that Washington and Oregon don't decide to jump to the Big 12 at that point. Then they would have to hope the Big 12 still wants additional teams and ESPN + Fox are on board with additions of ASU and Utah.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I've heard a couple times that the Big 10 doesn't want to make any more official invites because they're worried about potential litigation vs the Pac 9..8...7. They already made the first move with the LA schools and I think they could be waiting for another school after Colorado to make the move to the Big 12. At that point it's disintegrating situation involving multiple parties and the Big 10 isn't solely responsible.

I haven't studied up on the Big 10's TV money situation and who they can and can't add and when. But I don't think Oregon's eventual invite to the Big 10 is a sure thing at all, not when Stanford and its academic status, huge TV market at its geographical location and wealthy alumni base are taken into account. Washington, yes, I think it eventually gets an invite, but I can't say the Big 10 prefers Washington + Oregon over Washington + Stanford. But, of course, Stanford may not want to bother with the traveling situation.

IMO, Utah has a pretty grim situation. They're not going to get the invite to go to 14, the order is 1a Arizona or 1b UConn. The commissioner wants UConn and I don't think it's a terrible idea. They've won five of the past 24 basketball titles with three different coaches, more titles than anyone over that period and it's not just one coach. The question is whether UConn and their fanbase actually want to go to the Big 12. I think it's a mistake for Big 12 people to dismiss the move because making the Big 12 the preeminent basketball conference is a bulwark against getting picked apart in the future. It won't be the SEC competitively or money-wise or the Big 10 money-wise (though it will competitively), but it could be the third best in football and the best in basketball.

The SEC may very well expand and grab either FSU or Miami, though I don't think both. Does the Big 10 go for the other? I don't think so, they're not bluebloods like USC or UCLA, so the other goes to the Big 12. If the ACC falls apart, the SEC and Big 10 won't take all the programs. Clemson, North Carolina and Duke are probably all safe, but what about Louisville, Syracuse, Georgia Tech and NC State?

Back to the point regarding Big 12 expansion targets, it's likely that Arizona is first. If the Big 10 acts and invites Washington + Oregon, then if the Big 12 acts, the next targets will be UConn (if they want in, I don't think that's a guarantee, they like their Big East basketball) and ASU. If Stanford gets the invite instead of Oregon and if Stanford actually goes (no guarantee), then it's going to be Oregon and UConn. If UConn rejects it, then it's ASU. Utah is severely down in the pecking order. A huge amount of speculation on my part but Utah getting a Big 12 invite requires all of the following: 1) A new round of expansion from the Big 12 after 14 which likely requires the Big 10 to act; 2) The Big 10 to invite Washington and Oregon -- not Stanford --; and 3) UConn must reject the invite from the Big 12.

Even if the Big 10 doesn't act, Utah then needs to hope that Washington and Oregon don't decide to jump to the Big 12 at that point. Then they would have to hope the Big 12 still wants additional teams and ESPN + Fox are on board with additions of ASU and Utah.

UConn is a G5. The B12 pro rata clause if for P5 only. Not likely at all, in spite of social media chatter.

Litigation is a non-issue. B1G does not have a pro rata option with their media contract. So if they invite UO/UW, it would require everyone to earn less money. Why would the majority of schools vote for that? If you are Purdue, Rutgers, etc, why would you give up millions of dollars to have another two teams that will probably beat you routinely. There are good reasons this hasn't happened and it not likely to happen until they redo the contract years down the road.

[Jeff Lebowski]

OK, there is enough information out there to get some clarity on B12 expansion issues. In the last few days, multiple national writers have broken the news that the B12 pro rata clause has a limit. The media contract is with Fox and ESPN. ESPN has agreed to honor the clause for up to 4 teams. Fox has agreed to 2 teams. That is why you see more and more people saying that 14 is the limit and there is one more spot left. Given current momentum, that will most certainly be Arizona and the fact that there is only one "safe" pro rata spot left explains why there is extreme urgency by Arizona to get this done quickly. There is only 1 life raft left.

So does that mean that the expansion is over at 14 teams? No. I can guarantee you that if Oregon and UW decide they want to join, Fox will agree to extend the pro rata option for their half of the contract. So slots 15 & 16 are available to those two schools, but I can't imagine Fox would agree to do that for any other remaining P12 schools.

Also, I seriously doubt the B12 wants to go beyond 16 teams because at some point the ACC might blow up and you want to keep your options open there. Which is another reason why UW/OU are likely in at 15, 16 if they want, but nobody else.

All of this makes a lot of sense if you think about it. It never made sense to me that the B12 would be able to add whatever teams they want and in whatever quantity. If the media companies aren't willing to pay for a P12 media deal, why 0n earth would they pay $32M per team to bring most of the P12 teams to the B12? And it wouldn't surprise me at all if Fox/ESPN get veto power over the additions.

And what is the bottom line in all of this? I honestly can't envision any scenario where Utah is invited to the B12. Their fate is pretty much sealed.

[myboynoah]

That's kind of what he said:

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Also:

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Barnes and Schulz are the WSU and OSU presidents.

FWIW, I cannot find a single UA account (not just fans, but Arizona podcasters, sportswriters, etc) that is not 100% in on a move to the B12. ASAP. Seems like a certainty at this point.

So true about the UA accounts. They are all super bullish about the move being best for UA and about it happening..

Scheer doubling down on what he tweeted earlier in response to your FAV MHver3.

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[Color Me Badd Fan]

UConn is a G5. The B12 pro rata clause if for P5 only. Not likely at all, in spite of social media chatter.

Litigation is a non-issue. B1G does not have a pro rata option with their media contract. So if they invite UO/UW, it would require everyone to earn less money. Why would the majority of schools vote for that? If you are Purdue, Rutgers, etc, why would you give up millions of dollars to have another two teams that will probably beat you routinely. There are good reasons this hasn't happened and it not likely to happen until they redo the contract years down the road.

If the Big 12 goes to ESPN and Fox and asks them "hey, how about we add UConn with its proximity to both Boston and New York instead of Arizona" does ESPN say no to this? There can't be an addendum to the contract? You're basically asking a simple question -- do the networks prefer UConn over Arizona? While I still think Arizona has the edge over UConn because it's a path of less resistance, mutual desire on both sides and no complications with the contract, I'm really not sure there's a preference for Arizona over UConn from the networks.

[Omaha 680]

UConn is a G5. The B12 pro rata clause if for P5 only. Not likely at all, in spite of social media chatter.

Litigation is a non-issue. B1G does not have a pro rata option with their media contract. So if they invite UO/UW, it would require everyone to earn less money. Why would the majority of schools vote for that? If you are Purdue, Rutgers, etc, why would you give up millions of dollars to have another two teams that will probably beat you routinely. There are good reasons this hasn't happened and it not likely to happen until they redo the contract years down the road.

Agree with all of this. Once I knew the Big 12 had the pro rata option the Big Ten doesn't, it made much more sense why Oregon/Washington haven't been invited yet. I think the Big Ten could eventually invite one or both, but it wouldn't happen until the contract is up in 2030 or renegotiated a year or two before that. Probably 5 years at least, which is an eternity in the modern landscape. Who knows what the value of tv contracts will even be in 5 years?

Arizona is absolutely out the door becuase why stay at this point? What does losing the Denver and part of the Phoenix markets do to the ongoing PAC TV negotiations? Probably puts the number closer to G5 contracts than the Big 12. Then the questions become (1) does the Big 12 want to go to 16 now? and (2) Will Oregon and Washington stay with what is left of the PAC for a fraction of what they could get in the Big 12 out a sense of tradition and values and the WORLD University Rankings?

[Jeff Lebowski]

Agree with all of this. Once I knew the Big 12 had the pro rata option the Big Ten doesn't, it made much more sense why Oregon/Washington haven't been invited yet. I think the Big Ten could eventually invite one or both, but it wouldn't happen until the contract is up in 2030 or renegotiated a year or two before that. Probably 5 years at least, which is an eternity in the modern landscape. Who knows what the value of tv contracts will even be in 5 years?

Arizona is absolutely out the door becuase why stay at this point? What does losing the Denver and part of the Phoenix markets do to the ongoing PAC TV negotiations? Probably puts the number closer to G5 contracts than the Big 12. Then the questions become (1) does the Big 12 want to go to 16 now? and (2) Will Oregon and Washington stay with what is left of the PAC for a fraction of what they could get in the Big 12 out a sense of tradition and values and the WORLD University Rankings?

See my other post. If UW/UO say no for now, I think they sit at 14 and wait for the ACC to implode.

So I think there is a very good possibility that UW/UO join the B12. Let's suppose they try to make a go with the remaining P8. They have to invite a bunch of teams and get them there quickly, but the MWC has a $34M penalty for 2024. Where on earth would they come up with that money? Also, you can bet that the only way UW/UO would agree to stick around is with an unequal share and they probably want to revisit that grant of rights agreement/plan. If a media deal was tough before, it would be impossible now. You add all this up and I will be surprised if UW/UO don't make the jump too.

Crazy how much was set in motion with Colorado leaving. The dominoes are falling.

[Jeff Lebowski]

If the Big 12 goes to ESPN and Fox and asks them "hey, how about we add UConn with its proximity to both Boston and New York instead of Arizona" does ESPN say no to this? There can't be an addendum to the contract? You're basically asking a simple question -- do the networks prefer UConn over Arizona? While I still think Arizona has the edge over UConn because it's a path of less resistance, mutual desire on both sides and no complications with the contract, I'm really not sure there's a preference for Arizona over UConn from the networks.

Arizona over UConn? Absolutely. Both are good basketball schools and Arizona is not exactly a football powerhouse, but they are light years beyond UConn.

And nobody cares about UConn football in the Boston/NY markets. UConn people don't even care about it.

[Shaka]

OK, there is enough information out there to get some clarity on B12 expansion issues. In the last few days, multiple national writers have broken the news that the B12 pro rata clause has a limit. The media contract is with Fox and ESPN. ESPN has agreed to honor the clause for up to 4 teams. Fox has agreed to 2 teams. That is why you see more and more people saying that 14 is the limit and there is one more spot left. Given current momentum, that will most certainly be Arizona and the fact that there is only one "safe" pro rata spot left explains why there is extreme urgency by Arizona to get this done quickly. There is only 1 life raft left.

So does that mean that the expansion is over at 14 teams? No. I can guarantee you that if Oregon and UW decide they want to join, Fox will agree to extend the pro rata option for their half of the contract. So slots 15 & 16 are available to those two schools, but I can't imagine Fox would agree to do that for any other remaining P12 schools.

Also, I seriously doubt the B12 wants to go beyond 16 teams because at some point the ACC might blow up and you want to keep your options open there. Which is another reason why UW/OU are likely in at 15, 16 if they want, but nobody else.

All of this makes a lot of sense if you think about it. It never made sense to me that the B12 would be able to add whatever teams they want and in whatever quantity. If the media companies aren't willing to pay for a P12 media deal, why 0n earth would they pay $32M per team to bring most of the P12 teams to the B12? And it wouldn't surprise me at all if Fox/ESPN get veto power over the additions.

And what is the bottom line in all of this? I honestly can't envision any scenario where Utah is invited to the B12. Their fate is pretty much sealed.

I agree with this. I think AZ moves in the next week or two. UO's and UW's decision to come probably means FOX ponies up the dough. What's funny about it is I don't think FOX would pony up the dough for Utah or ASU to come should OR and UW choose to remain in P10.

Utah is in a very precarious position.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I agree with this. I think AZ moves in the next week or two. UO's and UW's decision to come probably means FOX ponies up the dough. What's funny about it is I don't think FOX would pony up the dough for Utah or ASU to come should OR and UW choose to remain in P10.

Utah is in a very precarious position.

Yeah, no way. They would already have the Utah and AZ markets.

[UtahJazzFan88]

I agree with everything you said if football performance was the sole or even primary consideration. But with the consolidation in the past few years football performance is probably only a tie-breaker if there are equal candidates revenue-wise. And there just aren't a lot of candidates (if any) left that create value for the power 2 conferences. For the Big 12 yes because of the pro rata clause in the contract. But it's not clear to me what the cap is in the contract to add additional schools and how big the Big 12 wants to be to position for the future. Given the schools that are in the universe of possibilities, I can't imagine them going bigger than 16 and the current ceiling might be 14.

So when Utah fans or anyone else puzzles at the Colorado invite because of on-field performance or claiming that Coach Prime won't measure up they are completely missing the mark. This is about market size, national appeal, and positioning for future contracts. Which is why Utah should be nervous. They don't have national appeal and the incremental part of the SLC market that they would deliver over what the Big 12 already has with BYU isn't enough to move the needle over Arizona, Oregon, or Washington. That may be "unfair" when pointing out Utah's football performance compared to those schools the last 5 years but it's the reality.

Salt Lake City & Utah in general is growing.

Honest argument, what is the population of Alabama? I just think it’s interesting we pick & choose markets and all that to suit an agenda.

[UtahJazzFan88]

I’ve read some Jon Wilner stuff that claims Oregon & Washington don’t feel like they’re a proper fit for the Big 12. Would have to post it.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I’ve read some Jon Wilner stuff that claims Oregon & Washington don’t feel like they’re a proper fit for the Big 12. Would have to post it.

Wilner. Lol.