The Big 12 expansion groundswell

[Uncle Ted]

That Athletic article confirms what many already suspected - BYU makes the most dollars and sense from any of the possible Big12 additions. That is encouraging, but doesn't necessarily mean they'll select BYU to join.

Join if an offer is made. If I had to bet, I would say they are only adding 2 teams, which will fulfill their media contract requirements in the short-term without reducing the per-team payouts. At the most, I think they could add 4 to go to 12 teams. They're not going to split the (more limited) pie any more ways than that.

According to this ranking BYU is 39th in the most valuable collage football programs: https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-...t-b8e840f42189

Only Texas Tech (32) and West Virginia (37) from the Big 12 leftovers beat BYU (39).

Other expansion candidates:

UCF (56)
BSU (62)
USF (65)
Memphis (69)
Houston (70)
Cincinnati (71)
SMU (73)

Colorado St, AFA, Navy, etc. are not even on the radar.

Maybe the Big 12 should offer BYU/BSU and UCF/USF, keep some good rivals together, and expand back to 12.

[Jeff Lebowski]

According to this ranking BYU is 39th in the most valuable collage football programs: https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-...t-b8e840f42189

Only Texas Tech (32) and West Virginia (37) from the Big 12 leftovers beat BYU (39).

Other expansion candidates:

UCF (56)
BSU (62)
USF (65)
Memphis (69)
Houston (70)
Cincinnati (71)
SMU (73)

Colorado St, AFA, Navy, etc. are not even on the radar.

Maybe the Big 12 should offer BYU/BSU and UCF/USF, keep some good rivals together, and expand back to 12.

Utah = 41.

[SeattleUte]

Wasn't Elder Holland's speech the last nail in the coffin for Power Conference admission (can't say P5 anymore, because it's not clear that Big 12 is still P)?

[Jeff Lebowski]

Wasn't Elder Holland's speech the last nail in the coffin for Power Conference admission (can't say P5 anymore, because it's not clear that Big 12 is still P)?

Time will tell.

And congratulations. With Texas and Oklahoma leaving the big 12, the Pac 12 is no longer the worst P5 conference.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Stick to hunter Biden laptop links

Not so fast. Pete Thammel agrees with UT:

https://sports.yahoo.com/think-big-h...203016120.html

[Uncle Ted]

Not so fast. Pete Thammel agrees with UT:

https://sports.yahoo.com/think-big-h...203016120.html

Yeah, go big or go G5.

[Uncle Ted]

Not so fast. Pete Thammel agrees with UT:

https://sports.yahoo.com/think-big-h...203016120.html

With College Football Playoff appearances the goal, the new Big 12 should be designed for flexibility to give its champion the best shot to reach the CFP. It should consider flex schedule options to give teams windows late in the season to play each other in big games to improve rankings. The league needs to be prepared for the SEC to play nine or 10 league games and the alliance to squeeze out its non-conference scheduling opportunities. That means the new Big 12 needs to be able to schedule each other within the 16 to provide the best showcases, making the possibility of a shotgun BYU-Coastal Carolina-type game from last season a reality every year.
[...]
The Big 12 has brought in former West Virginia AD Oliver Luck as a consultant. His recent XFL commissioner experience brought him across the table from every fathomable streaming service, which will help down the road. He also lived the Big East breakup and can relate to a group of schools bonded together most by its desire to leave.

This moment for the Big 12 requires guns down, not up. With some patience and luck in timing the media market, the Big 12 can remain relevant, rollicking and a fixture in college football’s postseason.

I love this thinking.

[old_gregg]

Time will tell.

And congratulations. With Texas and Oklahoma leaving the big 12, the Pac 12 is no longer the worst P5 conference.

let’s not be hasty

[Eddie]

I think returning to independence if the BIg12 folds would be rough. Not due to the media partner issues, but for scheduling reasons.

If these other leagues are setting up scheduling agreements, there are going to be fewer teams with open spots to schedule BYU. I also wonder what happens when BYU calls to tell 80% of the teams currently on the schedule that they have to cancel due to having joined a conference and no longer having room in the schedule. If the Big12 then explodes and BYU decides to return to independence, how many of those same schools will want to put BYU on a future scheduling knowing that if BYU jumps into another conference again they'll be left looking for another partner to fill their dance card.

I still think if the Big12 comes calling, they should go for it. But I also see it as a one-shot deal. If it doesn't work out, BYU is much more likely to head to a lesser conference than return to independence. I guess it's a risk worth taking.

[Uncle Ted]

Time will tell.

And congratulations. With Texas and Oklahoma leaving the big 12, the Pac 12 is no longer the worst P5 conference.

Actually, the Pac 12 would still be the worst P5 conference in terms of average attendance:

Even with losing Texas and Oklahoma, Big 12 would still rank 3rd for average attendance.

I looked at 2019 average attendances, since 2020 numbers were reduced attendance. I went ahead and took Oklahoma and Texas' attendance and attributed that to the SEC.

Average Attendance by conference:

1. SEC (75,071) [Vanderbilt's average attendance was 46% lower than the second lowest school and single-handedly dropped the entire conference's average attendance by 3,252]
2. Big Ten (64,528)
3. Big 12 (49,378)
4. ACC (47,706) [Clemson's average was 39% larger than the second most attended school in Virginia Tech. Clemson single handedly increased the entire conference's average attendance by 2,551 people]
5. Pac-12 (45,849)

[...]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comment..._big_12_would/

BYU's average attendance in 2019 was 59,547 (#22) so that would help the Big 12. The Big 12 average in 2019 with UT and OU was 57,467.

[Larry “Moose” Stubing]

Actually, the Pac 12 would still be the worst P5 conference in terms of average attendance:


https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comment..._big_12_would/

BYU's average attendance in 2019 was 59,547 (#22) so that would help the Big 12. The Big 12 average in 2019 with UT and OU was 57,467.

Amazing

[Uncle Ted]

Embedded Tweet

Time to track those flights.

[jadesroom]

From looking at a few articles, I'll predict four schools will be invited based on geographical location. Based on economics BYU should be a shoo-in candidate, but it's among those in the weakest position insofar as geography is concerned. My prediction, four schools from the following pairs will be invited: Either UCF and SFU or Cincinnati and Memphis or BYU and a geographic partner (BSU, CSU, AF, or UNLV).

My Final Four: BYU, UNLV, UCF, and SFU

[Uncle Ted]

From looking at a few articles, I'll predict four schools will be invited based on geographical location. Based on economics BYU should be a shoo-in candidate, but it's among those in the weakest position insofar as geography is concerned. My prediction, four schools from the following pairs will be invited: Either UCF and SFU or Cincinnati and Memphis or BYU and a geographic partner (BSU, CSU, AF, or UNLV).

My Final Four: BYU, UNLV, UCF, and SFU

It seems like there was some talk of Simon Fraser joining the Pac 12 a while back: https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comment...oin_the_pac12/ I think SFU would be a great fit in the Pac.

[Jeff Lebowski]

What about STFU?