The Big 12 expansion groundswell

[Sizzle]

How do you have the ratings for the 2010 Vegas and Poinsettia bowls?

They are found at the link that LA Ute provided. The year used is essentially the "BCS Year". But you get the point.

[Sizzle]

I am not interpreting the numbers. They are what they are and I do not know what they mean, except that they do not seem to support the assumptions of many BYU fans about BYU's national following, at least as far as TV viewership goes. I made the same assumption until I saw these data.

If that is the assumption that you are drawing from this then you are dead wrong. Did Boise and TCU both double their fan bases from the 2008-2009 Bowl season to the 2009-2010 one?

[LA Ute]

If that is the assumption that you are drawing from this then you are dead wrong. Did Boise and TCU both double their fan bases from the 2008-2009 Bowl season to the 2009-2010 one?

I assumed BYU draws lots of eyeballs when they play on TV. I think lots of people make that assumption. The numbers on that site don't seem to support that. What am I missing?

[Sizzle]

I assumed BYU draws lots of eyeballs when they play on TV. I think lots of people make that assumption. The numbers on that site don't seem to support that. What am I missing?

The definition of what a lot of eyeballs are.

Simplifying, if there are roughly 100 million TV households in the country (the number is a little higher, but 100 million makes for easy math) each rating point is worth about 1 million viewers when you are dealing with a national broadcast. (The formula is essentially Viewers/Population x 100.)

Does anybody think that BYU would pull in 10 million households? 5 million? I don't think anybody would make that argument. I wouldn't. 1 million households (not viewers, but Households) even seems like a fairly steep increase for a team like BYU.

Now, does it appear that the bowls that BYU has played in have increased in viewers in years that BYU has played? I would say that it looks to be that way. An increase of .5 rating over the average would equate to an added 500,000 Households watching, which is about an additional 1.5 million people assuming 3 people per household. I think that feels about right for a school like BYU.

It will be interesting to see if they impact the performance of the Bowl in ABQ. Interestingly enough, the most "marque" team BYU has played in Vegas was also their lowest rated Bowl (maybe Oregon really didn't want to be there). Oregon has drawn fairly well in some of their other bowl games, so that is interesting to me. Maybe if I get some time later I'll breakdown the mean for Bowl games and how teams have drawn compared to the Bowl mean.

[LA Ute]

The definition of what a lot of eyeballs are.

Simplifying, if there are roughly 100 million TV households in the country (the number is a little higher, but 100 million makes for easy math) each rating point is worth about 1 million viewers when you are dealing with a national broadcast. (The formula is essentially Viewers/Population x 100.)

Does anybody think that BYU would pull in 10 million households? 5 million? I don't think anybody would make that argument. I wouldn't. 1 million households (not viewers, but Households) even seems like a fairly steep increase for a team like BYU.

Now, does it appear that the bowls that BYU has played in have increased in viewers in years that BYU has played? I would say that it looks to be that way. An increase of .5 rating over the average would equate to an added 500,000 Households watching, which is about an additional 1.5 million people assuming 3 people per household. I think that feels about right for a school like BYU.

It will be interesting to see if they impact the performance of the Bowl in ABQ. Interestingly enough, the most "marque" team BYU has played in Vegas was also their lowest rated Bowl (maybe Oregon really didn't want to be there). Oregon has drawn fairly well in some of their other bowl games, so that is interesting to me. Maybe if I get some time later I'll breakdown the mean for Bowl games and how teams have drawn compared to the Bowl mean.

Fair enough. It will not surprise me at all if BYU does have a significant impact on viewership. (I guess "significant" means "enough to make them more attractive as a bowl invitee.") I was surprised that those BCS numbers didn't seem to show BYU as all that and a bag of chips.

[Uncle Ted]

I assumed BYU draws lots of eyeballs when they play on TV. I think lots of people make that assumption. The numbers on that site don't seem to support that. What am I missing?

You are missing the money. ESPN seems to think BYU draws lots of eyeballs and I am sure they have lots of numbers (that they don't publish) to justify what they are supposedly spending for BYU's home games.

[Portland Ute]

You're right. Look at the difference in ratings for the Sugar Bowl in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010:

2006: 9.0
2007: 9.29
2008: 7
2009: 7.8
2010: 8.5

Let's look at the Poinsettia Bowl:
2008: 2.0
2009: 3.7
2010: 2.81

Fiesta Bowl:
2005: 7.4
2006: 12.9
2007: 8.4 (What a shame as this was one of the greatest games of the decade)
2008: 7.7
2009: 10.4
2010: 8.23

Las Vegas Bowl:
2004: 1.76
2005: 1.9
2006: 2.4
2007: 1.97
2008: 2.48
2009: 2.5
2010: 2.58

Rose Bowl:
2004: 14.4
2005: 12.4
2006: 21.7
2007: 13.94
2008: 11.11
2009: 11.70
2010: 13.18

Given the timing of when the Bowls are played, I don't think you can compare bowls to bowls, but a more accurate way to judge is looking at bowl performance from year to year. The same matchup of Boise-TCU in 2009 drew a 3.71 share in the Poinsettia Bowl drew a 8.23 the next year in the Fiesta Bowl. Bowl "prestige" and timing makes a difference in my mind more so than particularly which two teams are playing. That is why I think it is better to look at how the ratings vary from year to year to really get a gauge, and I imagine it is the similar metrics that the Bowls would use in selecting their teams.

A wierd trend if you throw out the Veg. Compare the numbers of the rest of the bowls from 07-09. Every bowl experienced a significant dip from 07 to 08 and then higher in 09.

Actually, as I post that, it occurs to me that those are dates of the games, not seasons. Veg had the same dip in viewership that same bowl season. Look at 07 for the Veg.

Seems like the 07-08 bowl season was not as interesting to viewers as the years prior or since.

[Portland Ute]

[QUOTE=Hot Lunch;481820]
The biggest thing is getting the athletes though and telling 17 year old kids that aren't LDS and have hormones that are out of control that during college, if they get caught playing with boobies they might be missing some games.QUOTE]


So what you are saying is that, more important than access to the NFL or bowls, access to boobies is the key factor?

[KillerDog]

[quote=Portland Ute;482983]

The biggest thing is getting the athletes though and telling 17 year old kids that aren't LDS and have hormones that are out of control that during college, if they get caught playing with boobies they might be missing some games.QUOTE]


So what you are saying is that, more important than access to the NFL or bowls, access to boobies is the key factor?

People do decide things on a very visceral level.

[happyone]

[quote=Portland Ute;482983]

The biggest thing is getting the athletes though and telling 17 year old kids that aren't LDS and have hormones that are out of control that during college, if they get caught playing with boobies they might be missing some games.QUOTE]


So what you are saying is that, more important than access to the NFL or bowls, access to boobies is the key factor?

To a 17 yr old, both are probably very important

[Coach McGuirk]

I was surprised that those BCS numbers didn't seem to show BYU as all that and a bag of chips.

Which Sizzle keeps telling you it does show you the impact of BYU, but you don't wish to look at it that way. So, yes you are indeed right. BYU has less fans than most any other team in the nation including Utah. It is a miracle they are able to draw the 62K average for home games. I am sure BYU has less eyes on a tv than most high school teams.

[Sizzle]

A wierd trend if you throw out the Veg. Compare the numbers of the rest of the bowls from 07-09. Every bowl experienced a significant dip from 07 to 08 and then higher in 09.

Actually, as I post that, it occurs to me that those are dates of the games, not seasons. Veg had the same dip in viewership that same bowl season. Look at 07 for the Veg.

Seems like the 07-08 bowl season was not as interesting to viewers as the years prior or since.

No, those are the seasons. So the 2009 Vegas Bowl was actually played in 2008.

[LiveCoug]

[quote=happyone;482988]

To a 17 yr old, both are probably very important

Both boobies?

[happyone]

[quote=LiveCoug;483004]

Both boobies?

Yes and the access to the NFL

[LA Ute]

Which Sizzle keeps telling you it does show you the impact of BYU, but you don't wish to look at it that way. So, yes you are indeed right. BYU has less fans than most any other team in the nation including Utah. It is a miracle they are able to draw the 62K average for home games. I am sure BYU has less eyes on a tv than most high school teams.

Oh, come now, I am not saying that. I said Sizzle's analysis was "fair enough." I am sure BYU does attract eyeballs, but that's just based on what I know anecdotally about how BYU fans really love BYU football and show up at LES (for example) game after game, even in down years. I think all fans (yes, including Utah fans) exaggerate the strong points of their favorite programs, and I think BYU fans tend to exaggerate how powerful a TV draw they are. But as Uncle Ted notes, ESPN thinks there are enough BYU eyeballs to justify a contract, and ESPN isn't stupid about such things, so there must be something significant there. Am I out of the doghouse now?