The Big 12 expansion groundswell

[Hot Lunch]

Why is everyone down on Vegas bowl? I think if BYU got in their to play the winner of the MWC or even 4th place pac 10 now that they have 12 teams, that would be a good bowl. Of course, I like going to Vegas.

Is it just the timing?

It probably is just the timing of the bowl. I think if the Vegas Bowl was played after Christmas then people would feel differently.

[KillerDog]

The question of why Louisville would leave the Big East (or Cincinatti for that matter) is pretty obvious. Money. The Big East schools make less than the Big XII schools because football is king. There is a step down in basketball competition but not enough to kill their strength of schedule because you still have Kansas in the Big XII and there are a number of quality programs coming alive as well in Texas, aTm, Baylor, and KSU. Bottom line, if the Big XII decides to add Lousiville or Cincy, either of those teams would jump at it.

Also, let's not confuse BYU acquiring comfort with a less than ideal scenario with enjoyment in that scenario or preference of that scenario over an ideal scenario. The Athletic Department and the Administration are "happy" with independence the same way a young Teacher is happy with doing a service project. It isn't what they would prefer but it isn't as bad as staying at home and getting hollered at. If the Big XII has seen the value of BYU in the open market and is able to find a suitable replacement for Nebraska, BYU would jump at the chance. Assuming, of course, that the Big XII will allow BYU to avoid Sunday play (I still don't get the inflexibility on this).

[LiveCoug]

It probably is just the timing of the bowl. I think if the Vegas Bowl was played after Christmas then people would feel differently.

Agreed. Pre Christmas bowls are lame. No one cares.

[Sizzle]

I still think that if the Vegas Bowl were:

1) Played after Christmas

and

2) Played closer to the strip (preferably indoors somehow)

That the location for the Bowl game would make it one of the more desirable bowl games to go and play in.

Since it is before Christmas, played so far off the strip in a crappy stadium, I think it loses a lot of its luster.

[KillerDog]

Why is everyone down on Vegas bowl? I think if BYU got in their to play the winner of the MWC or even 4th place pac 10 now that they have 12 teams, that would be a good bowl. Of course, I like going to Vegas.

Is it just the timing?

I don't get it either. Imagine if you played in the Vegas Bowl and didn't have to share your bowl revenue. That makes the Vegas Bowl a very lucrative bowl contract. The Holiday Bowl of the Insight.com Bowl would be better but Vegas would be a great reward. I imagine that BYU is trying to work out a string of bowl connections and they are probably basing them on record or BCS rankings. For example, if BYU could work out a deal where they get to a BCS bowl provided they have a top 8 BCS ranking, I would be happy with that. Then if they worked out an appearance at the Holiday Bowl with a BCS ranking from 9-25 that would be money. Then, if they could work out a bowl or two for years when they are unranked but bowl eligible, they would have great bowl options and would generate great bowl revenue for themselves.

[Pheidippides]

I still think that if the Vegas Bowl were:

1) Played after Christmas

and

2) Played closer to the strip (preferably indoors somehow)

That the location for the Bowl game would make it one of the more desirable bowl games to go and play in.

Since it is before Christmas, played so far off the strip in a crappy stadium, I think it loses a lot of its luster.

The Vegas bowl will never be played after Christmas. Makes no sense in Vegas - the entire reason it is before is because that is a dead week tourism wise. The week after, not so much.

[SeattleUte]

The question of why Louisville would leave the Big East (or Cincinatti for that matter) is pretty obvious. Money. The Big East schools make less than the Big XII schools because football is king. There is a step down in basketball competition but not enough to kill their strength of schedule because you still have Kansas in the Big XII and there are a number of quality programs coming alive as well in Texas, aTm, Baylor, and KSU. Bottom line, if the Big XII decides to add Lousiville or Cincy, either of those teams would jump at it.

Also, let's not confuse BYU acquiring comfort with a less than ideal scenario with enjoyment in that scenario or preference of that scenario over an ideal scenario. The Athletic Department and the Administration are "happy" with independence the same way a young Teacher is happy with doing a service project. It isn't what they would prefer but it isn't as bad as staying at home and getting hollered at. If the Big XII has seen the value of BYU in the open market and is able to find a suitable replacement for Nebraska, BYU would jump at the chance. Assuming, of course, that the Big XII will allow BYU to avoid Sunday play (I still don't get the inflexibility on this).

Cincinnati and Loiusville seem the ideal scenario for the Big 12. Cincinnati is more Kentucky than Cleveland. It's a southern town. Cincy and Louisville are both public schools by the way. Babs says the B12 has hit its limit with one high maintenance religous school.

[KillerDog]

Cincinnati and Loiusville seem the ideal scenario for the Big 12. Cincinnati is more Kentucky than Cleveland. It's a southern town. Cincy and Louisville are both public schools by the way. Babs says the B12 has hit its limit with one high maintenance religous school.

I think the Big 12 takes one or the other but not both. The problem with either school is that it doesn't restore credibility in the North division. Nebraska gave the North an amazing amount of credibility. They already look like the western branch of the Big East both in football and in basketball. Adding two Big East schools would make that worse. I think Louisville, Cincy, and BYU are all like the U and Colorado with relation to the Pac-10. They are schools that could be invited together if the conference is against a wall but they are more a complementary invite to the big prize. In the case of the Big 12, the big prizes are Arkansas or ND just like Texas was the big prize for the Pac-10.

That said, I believe it is possible for two of the complementary options to be invited together if the conference finds itself fading too quickly because of the loss of a championship game or otherwise.

On the subject of religious schools, you and Babs need to stop being bigots.

[LiveCoug]

The other reason I don't want the Vegas bowl: 5th place team in the Pac 10? Lame. Need a better end of season reward than that as an independent.

[shoganai]

The bowl situation is going to be a long-term project. BCS aside, BYU is likely to cut some kind of deal with your Poinsettia/Independence-type bowl games in the short term.

The hope is, if they can establish themselves and develop the kind of brand they want as an independent, they'll be able to get some deals with Holiday/Alamo-type bowl games a few years down the road.

Really, the BCS strategy might be the same. They might be able to push and get a "Top 6" AQ deal now (not that great), but maybe improve on that in the future once they solidify their brand and show they can be successful long term.

I suspect the ultimate goal is to have decent BCS access, and rotating agreements with 2-3 other bowls ranging from Holiday - Vegas about who gets them, how, and when.

[Sizzle]

The Vegas bowl will never be played after Christmas. Makes no sense in Vegas - the entire reason it is before is because that is a dead week tourism wise. The week after, not so much.

Oh, I understand that completely.

[SeattleUte]

I think the Big 12 takes one or the other but not both. The problem with either school is that it doesn't restore credibility in the North division. Nebraska gave the North an amazing amount of credibility. They already look like the western branch of the Big East both in football and in basketball. Adding two Big East schools would make that worse. I think Louisville, Cincy, and BYU are all like the U and Colorado with relation to the Pac-10. They are schools that could be invited together if the conference is against a wall but they are more a complementary invite to the big prize. In the case of the Big 12, the big prizes are Arkansas or ND just like Texas was the big prize for the Pac-10.

That said, I believe it is possible for two of the complementary options to be invited together if the conference finds itself fading too quickly because of the loss of a championship game or otherwise.

On the subject of religious schools, you and Babs need to stop being bigots.

Your arguments are based on a snapshot in time and shifting sands. There is no reason Missouri or any number of teams cannot fill Nebraska's shoes. Nebraska has a longer and finer football tradition than Utah or Colorado. But either of those schools have the resources to match Nebraska. Utah's past decade has been better than Nebraska's. The ten years before that were a monster decade for Colorado. Do you realize Oregon has not won a Rose Bowl for like 110 years?

Also, Cincinnati and/or Louisville would fit in the Northern Division.

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[statman]

If I knew that BYU could schedule 7 BCS games (3 high level, 2 mid level and 2 low level) a year (some 2 fer 1's but MOST home and home), 2 mid to high non AQ and 3 mid to low AQ every year, a nice bowl tie in (not Vegas. Holiday or better) and ND BCS type access, I would be fine with long term independence.

I really don't see that happening, so, please no long term independence! Come on Big 12!

It looks like future schedules are shooting for 5-6 BCS opponents, a game with the top non-BCS school every year (BSU), and then the rest as MWC/WAC schools. I don't really have a problem with that. That's certainly a better schedule than we've consistently had previously. And it's not really very different from a BCS schedule - except for the fact that eventually all the BCS teams going to a BCS Bowl will have to play and win a league championship game to get there...

The risk of such a schedule - that is usually mitigated if you play in a league where you get a team every year, so the natural ups and downs of programs within the league tend to balance each other - is that you hit the majority of your BCS opponents on either an up or down year. If 5 of the 6 BCS teams suck in that particular year, your schedule won't be so impressive. But if they're all really good, you'd end up with one of the hardest schedules in the country.

I really like the arrangement for Independence that BYU has now - which really is only possible with ESPN helping-out and ultimately providing $ with scheduling a minimum number of solid opponents. But the Big-12 would be FABULOUS - and definitely an upgrade. The impact that the Big-12 would have on basketball at BYU would be worth anything we had to give up from being independent.

[statman]

The question of why Louisville would leave the Big East (or Cincinatti for that matter) is pretty obvious. Money. The Big East schools make less than the Big XII schools because football is king. There is a step down in basketball competition but not enough to kill their strength of schedule because you still have Kansas in the Big XII and there are a number of quality programs coming alive as well in Texas, aTm, Baylor, and KSU. Bottom line, if the Big XII decides to add Lousiville or Cincy, either of those teams would jump at it.

Also, let's not confuse BYU acquiring comfort with a less than ideal scenario with enjoyment in that scenario or preference of that scenario over an ideal scenario. The Athletic Department and the Administration are "happy" with independence the same way a young Teacher is happy with doing a service project. It isn't what they would prefer but it isn't as bad as staying at home and getting hollered at. If the Big XII has seen the value of BYU in the open market and is able to find a suitable replacement for Nebraska, BYU would jump at the chance. Assuming, of course, that the Big XII will allow BYU to avoid Sunday play (I still don't get the inflexibility on this).

If the Big XII makes a play for any Big East teams, it will force the hand of the SEC / ACC / Big-10. If those leagues want to go to 16 teams (and they have all said that they are at least interested in it), the Big East is key for them being able to do it. And they really need ALL of the Big East.

The SEC/ACC/Big-10 would immediately rush in and make a counter offer. And they'll almost certainly start offering Big XII teams as well - Kansas, Missou, A&M, etc. And while we're at it, UT, OK, KState, as well. Some would be attractive to the Big 10, others to the SEC. But they'd all be on the table - except perhaps for Baylor & Iowa State. But the one thing that's for sure - the very existence of the Big-XII would REALLY be in jeopardy.

The Big XII will NOT be looking to add a Big East team, or any team from the SEC, ACC, or Big 10. trying to do so would likely start a chain of events that could cause the Big XII to cease to exist...

[statman]

The problem with the SLC DMA is that it is so dang big geographically.

It's not really a problem. 95% of the DMA's population lives between the northern suburbs of Ogden and Spanish Fork. And it's bounded by mountains on the East and desert/mountains/lakes on the West.

It is funny shaped - it's 70 miles long and 5-10 miles wide - not the circular metro area that marketers like for minimizing drive-time. Yeah, that presents issues for advertisers. There's no way in hell someone from Payson is going to be driving to Layton to get new tires or to get Lasix or their teeth whitened. But the core of the DMA - with 1 million of the 1.8 million population - is the Salt Lake Valley, which in and of itself is a pretty standard place geographically, even if the population and commercial center of mass is shifted toward the NE corner of the valley rather than at its center...

And probably the biggest attraction of the DMA - it's growth. Utah County is expected to grow about 40% over the next decade. Salt Lake County about 20%. Davis & Weber - about 30%. That's an increase of about 28% in total, with the DMA expected to have almost 2.6 million people and over 1.2 million households by 2020. In today's DMA rankings, that would put the current SLC market at about #21. I know, other markets will be growing as well, but many of the ones above SLC will be shrinking. #21 is a pretty good guess at where SLC will be in 2020. Any organization interested in long-term growth would be wise to consider SLC...

And one further point - if you put SLC in the Big-XII today, it'd be the third largest DMA in the conference foot-print, and while it will be a long-while before SLC overtakes either of those two, it will grow faster in relative and absolute terms than either DFW or Houston (or San Antonio) over the next decade. There will be more new TV sets in SLC than either Houston or DFW. And just for a point of additional trivia, neither DFW nor Houston actually have Big-12 teams inside the core of their DMA footprint itself...