The Big 12 expansion groundswell

[Sizzle]

Louisville or Air Force would be better than SMU or Houston. Houston averages around 25,000 fans for home games and their academics are not that good. SMU academics are much better but they only have average of about 21,000 per home game. Louisville and Cincy are both around 33,000 fans per home game. Air Force averages around 35,000. Of course, even Baylor which averages the lowest in the Big 12 has 36,000 for home games. None of these teams makes up for 85,000+ Huskers that show up to see a sold out game at Memorial Stadium. It would take Notre Dame to do that.

But what is the motivation for Louisville or Cincy to leave the Big East for the Big 12?

[Surfah]

But what is the motivation for Louisville or Cincy to leave the Big East for the Big 12?

A bajillion basketball team conference and tenuous BCS status.

[Sizzle]

A bajillion basketball team conference and tenuous BCS status.

Do you really think there is a risk for the conference to lose its BCS-AQ eligibility? I think they would tweak the rules before they kick the Big East out.

You may have a point on Basketball... but since when has any conference expansion been Basketball driven?

[scottie]

I wholeheartedly agree that BYU in the Big 12 makes complete sense. What doesn't make any sense at all is why they haven't invited BYU already -- what's the logic there (i.e., that the Big 12 hasn't already invited BYU if it ever will)?

[Surfah]

Do you really think there is a risk for the conference to lose its BCS-AQ eligibility? I think they would tweak the rules before they kick the Big East out.

You may have a point on Basketball... but since when has any conference expansion been Basketball driven?

Well Pitt's head basketball coach is supposedly the reason TCU is now in the Big East.

[BlueHair]

I'm starting to believe that BYU doesn't want to go to the Big 12. This independence thing was supposed to be a temporary measure while waiting for an invitation. From what I hear they are getting very comfortable with the idea of long-term independence.

[SeattleUte]

I'm starting to believe that BYU doesn't want to go to the Big 12. This independence thing was supposed to be a temporary measure while waiting for an invitation. From what I hear they are getting very comfortable with the idea of long-term independence.

Bullshit.

[Uncle Ted]

So when Notre Dame plays Michigan or Notre Dame plays Texas...ABC and FoxSports is going to allow NBC to air the game? Any time Notre Dame plays it will be aired nationally...even if it's a crappy game like Purdue...and ABC/FoxSports will want to televise it. Or will the Big XII just acquiesce and allow Notre Dame to join but televise all their games on NBC without sharing the revenue?

No, I don't see that happening but I could see Notre Dame getting a deal like what Texas has which is more money ND is getting from NBC. Notre Dame is only getting about $7.6M/year from its current contract with NBC. Who knows but BYU might actually be getting the same or even a bit more from ESPN next year than what ND is getting from NBC. Of course, the relationship between NBC and Notre Dame goes back a long ways.

I'd like to see the Big XII with Notre Dame and BYU as well. Actually, my preference was BYU in the Big XII taking Colorado's spot and Notre Dame (rather than Nebraska) joining the Big Ten. Maybe Loiuisville is more respectable than I had thought since I don't think Notre Dame will be joining the Big XII party.

As much as I dislike Nebraska I would have still preferred them staying in the Big 12, the Big Ten, instead, taking ND, and BYU replacing Colorado. That would have been ideal. BYU would add a lot more value than Colorado ever did but it is going to very hard for the Big 12 to replace Nebraska.

[TripletDaddy]

I'm starting to believe that BYU doesn't want to go to the Big 12. This independence thing was supposed to be a temporary measure while waiting for an invitation. From what I hear they are getting very comfortable with the idea of long-term independence.

I'm puzzled by this. What exactly have you been hearing?

I don't understand how BYU can be getting comfortable with independence when we haven't even done it yet. There are definite pluses associated with going solo, the money will be an improvement, and there will be greater exposure that currently in the MWC. But the situation with the non football programs is untenable. BYU needs to get into a better deal for the sake of all its other programs, at the very least.

[BlueHair]

I'm puzzled by this. What exactly have you been hearing?

I don't understand how BYU can be getting comfortable with independence when we haven't even done it yet. There are definite pluses associated with going solo, the money will be an improvement, and there will be greater exposure that currently in the MWC. But the situation with the non football programs is untenable. BYU needs to get into a better deal for the sake of all its other programs, at the very least.

I have heard they are really warming up to the idea of setting their own schedule, traveling the country, forging new friendships with universities they haven't been able to play, and really using the football team as a missionary tool. The biggest fear going in was scheduling, but Holmoe has been surprised with how easy of a time he is having lining up opponents. Who knows for sure what will happen if/when an invitation comes, but BYU is comfortable if that invitation doesn't come. If the invitation comes this year, I think they jump on it. All bets are off if we get a couple of seasons under our belt as an independent.

[Maximus]

I have heard they are really warming up to the idea of setting their own schedule, traveling the country, forging new friendships with universities they haven't been able to play, and really using the football team as a missionary tool. The biggest fear going in was scheduling, but Holmoe has been surprised with how easy of a time he is having lining up opponents. Who knows for sure what will happen if/when an invitation comes, but BYU is comfortable if that invitation doesn't come. If the invitation comes this year, I think they jump on it. All bets are off if we get a couple of seasons under our belt as an independent.

If we want our schedules to have 8 away games and 4 home games some years, things are lining up very nicely.

[BlueHair]

If we want our schedules to have 8 away games and 4 home games some years, things are lining up very nicely.

We will have a minimum of 6 homes games. We could actually get 8-9, but to schedule good teams, you're going to have to do mostly home and homes with some 2 for 1s mixed in. BYU will stagger the 2 for 1's so they don't end up with 4 home games.

[LA Ute]

From straight up size, it isn't a huge issue with just under 1 million homes and ranking as the 31st largest TV DMA. So as far as TV DMAs are concerned, the SLC DMA isn't a horrible one.

For comparisons, New York is about 7.5 million homes, LA is about 5.6 million homes and Chicago is 3.5 million homes. Those three are the biggest ones. Comparable DMAs are Portland (1.1 million ranked 22), Pittsburg (1.1 million ranked 23), Baltimore (1 million ranked 27), Kansas City (.94 million, ranked 32), Cincinnati (.91 million, ranked 33).

The problem with the SLC DMA is that it is so dang big geographically. It essentially encompasses all of Utah, parts of Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho and Wyoming. And there isn't another major DMA that it really joins with. The Denver DMA is big at 1.5 million (ranked 15th) but Salt Lake and Denver are separated by these things called the Rocky Mountains, so you don't get much interest in neighboring DMAs. For example, Oklahoma City is a smaller DMA than Salt Lake at only 694,000 households (ranked 45) but with Oklahoma City, you've got the Tulsa DMA with its 528,000 households which would rank it as about the 20th largest DMA, and that doesn't take into account surrounding Texas/Arkansas DMAs that also cover parts of Oklahoma.

The one draw BYU has though, is the pockets of interest at some level from many members of the LDS church throughout the country. If you were to assign a number to the total number of LDS members in the USA, I believe it is about 5.5 million people. If you allow for about 3.5 members in the average household (maybe a somewhat random number, but the average US Household size is 2.6 and if LDS are slightly higher, 3.5 isn't too far off) the estimated number of "Households" would be about 1.6 million, or enough to put it at about the 16th largest TV DMA... just spread across the country.

Anyways. I always hear people throwing out TV market size and I hoped to shed a little insight and perspective into what it means, as well as quantify. I probably rambled too much for it to be coherent though, so apologies in advance.

I was referring to BYU and Utah being in the same midsized TV market, which I understand is the reason they don't make a good pair for conference expansion.

EDIT: I have always thought BYU and Utah are obvious partners to join another conference. They would have been a natural pair fr the PAC12. It's a shame they are not staying together, IMO.

[Maximus]

We will have a minimum of 6 homes games. We could actually get 8-9, but to schedule good teams, you're going to have to do mostly home and homes with some 2 for 1s mixed in. BYU will stagger the 2 for 1's so they don't end up with 4 home games.

the problem is we have scheduled what, one 1 and 1 series with a BCS program (a 2 and 2 in this case). Ole miss=1 and done ND=2 for 1 Texas=2 for 1 We have some WAC and Hawaii and utah state. We will need to get a lot more 1 for 1s with BCS programs to make a decent schedule.

[SteelBlue]

I'm starting to believe that BYU doesn't want to go to the Big 12. This independence thing was supposed to be a temporary measure while waiting for an invitation. From what I hear they are getting very comfortable with the idea of long-term independence.

As one who hangs on your every word when it comes to this topic I now head off to bed weeping.