The Big 12 expansion groundswell

[Jeff Lebowski]

Notre Dame's TV deal expires in 2015. It's been a while since I reviewed the dollar figures but I've read where Notre Dame could make more in the Big Ten then with their NBC deal. But the numbers seem to change with each new TV contract. However, the ratings for Notre Dame football are not good right now.

It wouldn't be difficult for the Big Ten to work out a formula with Notre Dame where it keeps its NBC contract through 2015 and takes a reduced share of ABC/ESPN and BTN revenues.

I guess it just depends on what the Irish want to do. I think if ND wants to join a conference (or are forced to), it will be the Big Ten. Although, the Irish do have an independent streak and could always remain that way. Anyway, I've read convincing arguments that calculate that Notre Dame could make more in the Big Ten than being independent. However, it seems to reason that Notre Dame brings more than its fair sure when it comes to revenues so it would seem that it could always make more being independent because it wouldn't have to share. Same logic holds true with the Longhorns.

Why shouldn't we expect that ND will negotiate a new contract in 2015 that gives them far more money than they are currently getting? Isn't it kind of unrealistic to compare a new B1G contract to an old ND contract?

[SeattleUte]

Why would any of these teams not want to be in a conference with BYU? INCONCEIVABLE!!

[Pelado]

Why shouldn't we expect that ND will negotiate a new contract in 2015 that gives them far more money than they are currently getting? Isn't it kind of unrealistic to compare a new B1G contract to an old ND contract?

Please see below:

Notre Dame's TV deal expires in 2015. It's been a while since I reviewed the dollar figures but I've read where Notre Dame could make more in the Big Ten then with their NBC deal. But the numbers seem to change with each new TV contract. However, the ratings for Notre Dame football are not good right now.

[Blueintheface]

Why would any of these teams not want to be in a conference with BYU? INCONCEIVABLE!!

#111

[TripletDaddy]

Why shouldn't we expect that ND will negotiate a new contract in 2015 that gives them far more money than they are currently getting? Isn't it kind of unrealistic to compare a new B1G contract to an old ND contract?

I read a very recent article (perhaps USA Today?) that exposed the myth of Notre Dame's media prowess. In fact, the numbers I remember from the article indicate that Notre Dame games were pulling less than a 3 share...somewhere in the 2.3 range, putting it well below the other nationally televised college football matchups of the day. This trend has been in repeating itself for several years now.

I have no doubt that NBC will renegotiate and even give the Irish a bump. It isn't going to be what the PAC, SEC or B1G are getting. Or even what the B12 is currently slated to receive.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Please see below:

That's not convincing. The question to ask is whether ND can make more money as an additional member in the B1G or as an independent? Put another way, is ND more valuable than the average B1G team, even with the current ratings? I would say yes, by a mile. Lots of things have changed since ND negotiated its old contract.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I read a very recent article (perhaps USA Today?) that exposed the myth of Notre Dame's media prowess. In fact, the numbers I remember from the article indicate that Notre Dame games were pulling less than a 3 share...somewhere in the 2.3 range, putting it well below the other nationally televised college football matchups of the day. This trend has been in repeating itself for several years now.

I have no doubt that NBC will renegotiate and even give the Irish a bump. It isn't going to be what the PAC, SEC or B1G are getting. Or even what the B12 is currently slated to receive.

Help me understand that argument from an financial/economic viewpoint. Why is it that ND would make more money in a conference? Would people want to watch ND games that much more if they were in a conference?

Or is the bottom line here that ND is all smoke and mirrors and they really aren't that popular after all?

[TripletDaddy]

Help me understand that argument from an financial/economic viewpoint. Why is it that ND would make more money in a conference? Would people want to watch ND games that much more if they were in a conference?

Or is the bottom line here that ND is all smoke and mirrors and they really aren't that popular after all?

No they are definitely a draw, just not the draw that many assume them to be. As an example, this bit from a really interesting USA Today article on the LHN..

The concern that college sports powers would cut their own TV deals and become more powerful goes back at least to Notre Dame getting NBC to carry its home games in 1991. But since then, the Irish, who have won eight national football titles since 1936, haven't won a national title and lost nine consecutive bowl games before winning two in the last three years. And the team isn't a huge TV draw: Last year, its games on NBC averaged 2.1% of U.S. households — less than one-third the audience of college football's top-rated games.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/colle...k-debate_n.htm

In a sense, you are correct...there is some smoke and mirrors going on in South Bend. People across the country are not tuning in to watch the Domers. They would rather watch the true marquee teams right now....OU, Texas, Alabama, Auburn, et al. Notre Dame is not pulling ratings and that lack of rating will definitely impact the ability to renegotiate a bigger slice with NBC in a few years.

If the Irish were to allign themselves with, say....the SEC....they give up their $14MM or whatever a year from NBC, but automatically share in a greater slice of the pie from the superior SEC TV deal. Also, since the SEC always places at least one team, if not two, in BCS bowls each year, as well as at least 5-8 second tier bowls, the Irish would also split that pie at the end of the season. Currently, it is feast or famine for the Notre Dame. Yes, they keep all their bowl dough, but they have been playing in second tier bowls with lower payouts.

I think one of the bigger reasons to join isn't just increased cash, it is increased access to the BCS. As of right now, Notre Dame's season is effectively over. It isnt playing for a title with 2 losses. And since it kind of stinks, the chances of a BCS at large are moot. However, if the Irish were in the Big East, which is lousy, they could still have a very realistic shot at an auto-berth.

The old Notre Dame model doesnt work anymore. They cant keep playing tough schedules every year (which they do, imo) and have no conference affiliation to help shield them during down years.

[Paperback Writer]

That's not convincing. The question to ask is whether ND can make more money as an additional member in the B1G or as an independent? Put another way, is ND more valuable than the average B1G team, even with the current ratings? I would say yes, by a mile. Lots of things have changed since ND negotiated its old contract.

Agree, Notre Dame will bring in more revenue to any conference it might wish to join. What is somewhat unique is the BTN which collects revenue on a per subscriber basis. Adding Notre Dame could potentially increase BTN subscribers by quite a bit.

I think Notre Dame could be more valuable as part of the ABC/ESPN plus BTN then it could negiotate with NBC. Now Notre Dame could be worth more even more if they developed their own network like Texas. I guess it just depends on how the LHN works out for Texas on whether Notre Dame tries it.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Agree, Notre Dame will bring in more revenue to any conference it might wish to join. What is somewhat unique is the BTN which collects revenue on a per subscriber basis. Adding Notre Dame could potentially increase BTN subscribers by quite a bit.

I think Notre Dame could be more valuable as part of the ABC/ESPN plus BTN then it could negiotate with NBC. Now Notre Dame could be worth more even more if they developed their own network like Texas. I guess it just depends on how the LHN works out for Texas on whether Notre Dame tries it.

Texas might be able to do things with independence that even ND can't touch. It would be interesting to see.

But my overwhelming preference would be to see the B12 survive. What a mess.

[SteelBlue]

SEC comments today that they are hopeful A&M in SEC by next season.

http://espn.go.com/blog/big12/post/_...l-join-in-2012

Seems to be more than they've been saying.

[Uncle Ted]

Pete Thamel of the New York Times has a strong feeling...

PeteThamelNYT Pete Thamel

Have got the strong feeling today that there's little appetite for Oklahoma and OSU in Pac-12 country. Hate to count out Larry Scott, tho.
36 minutes ago

[myboynoah]

Pete Thamel of the New York Times has a strong feeling...

Without Texas, the crown jewel, I don't see why they take OKU and OKSU. Would those two schools be worth at least $40 million more a year? Or would other schools pay for the two to come aboard?

[Jeff Lebowski]

Pete Thamel of the New York Times has a strong feeling...

Interesting.

I would imagine that without Texas as part of the package it would be a little tougher sell.

[TripletDaddy]

So in an effort to flex, OU is getting denied?