The Big 12 expansion groundswell

[Uncle Ted]

OK, there is enough information out there to get some clarity on B12 expansion issues. In the last few days, multiple national writers have broken the news that the B12 pro rata clause has a limit. The media contract is with Fox and ESPN. ESPN has agreed to honor the clause for up to 4 teams. Fox has agreed to 2 teams. That is why you see more and more people saying that 14 is the limit and there is one more spot left. Given current momentum, that will most certainly be Arizona and the fact that there is only one "safe" pro rata spot left explains why there is extreme urgency by Arizona to get this done quickly. There is only 1 life raft left.

So does that mean that the expansion is over at 14 teams? No. I can guarantee you that if Oregon and UW decide they want to join, Fox will agree to extend the pro rata option for their half of the contract. So slots 15 & 16 are available to those two schools, but I can't imagine Fox would agree to do that for any other remaining P12 schools.

Also, I seriously doubt the B12 wants to go beyond 16 teams because at some point the ACC might blow up and you want to keep your options open there. Which is another reason why UW/OU are likely in at 15, 16 if they want, but nobody else.

All of this makes a lot of sense if you think about it. It never made sense to me that the B12 would be able to add whatever teams they want and in whatever quantity. If the media companies aren't willing to pay for a P12 media deal, why 0n earth would they pay $32M per team to bring most of the P12 teams to the B12? And it wouldn't surprise me at all if Fox/ESPN get veto power over the additions.

And what is the bottom line in all of this? I honestly can't envision any scenario where Utah is invited to the B12. Their fate is pretty much sealed.

This. Arizona will be next, IMO. If Ore and UW are out of good options they will come too.

Utah needed to pick up that stick like Colorado did and fight for a spot. Of course. I'm not sure if they command that many eyes so maybe they need to be looking at the ACC?

[Uncle Ted]

I’ve read some Jon Wilner stuff that claims Oregon & Washington don’t feel like they’re a proper fit for the Big 12. Would have to post it.

Ore and UW would rather be in the B1G, for sure. However, the B1G schools would have to take a smaller piece of the money pie to make it happen. I don't think that is going to happen.

Maybe when they are looking at $15m/year in the Pac 12-3 or Pac 12-4+4*G5's they will think they are great fit for the Big 12.

[SteelBlue]

OK, there is enough information out there to get some clarity on B12 expansion issues. In the last few days, multiple national writers have broken the news that the B12 pro rata clause has a limit. The media contract is with Fox and ESPN. ESPN has agreed to honor the clause for up to 4 teams. Fox has agreed to 2 teams. That is why you see more and more people saying that 14 is the limit and there is one more spot left. Given current momentum, that will most certainly be Arizona and the fact that there is only one "safe" pro rata spot left explains why there is extreme urgency by Arizona to get this done quickly. There is only 1 life raft left.

So does that mean that the expansion is over at 14 teams? No. I can guarantee you that if Oregon and UW decide they want to join, Fox will agree to extend the pro rata option for their half of the contract. So slots 15 & 16 are available to those two schools, but I can't imagine Fox would agree to do that for any other remaining P12 schools.

Also, I seriously doubt the B12 wants to go beyond 16 teams because at some point the ACC might blow up and you want to keep your options open there. Which is another reason why UW/OU are likely in at 15, 16 if they want, but nobody else.

All of this makes a lot of sense if you think about it. It never made sense to me that the B12 would be able to add whatever teams they want and in whatever quantity. If the media companies aren't willing to pay for a P12 media deal, why 0n earth would they pay $32M per team to bring most of the P12 teams to the B12? And it wouldn't surprise me at all if Fox/ESPN get veto power over the additions.

And what is the bottom line in all of this? I honestly can't envision any scenario where Utah is invited to the B12. Their fate is pretty much sealed.

This is a better summation and estimation of the current situation than anything I’ve read from any sportswriter.

[Green Monstah]

If the Big 12 goes to ESPN and Fox and asks them "hey, how about we add UConn with its proximity to both Boston and New York instead of Arizona" does ESPN say no to this? There can't be an addendum to the contract? You're basically asking a simple question -- do the networks prefer UConn over Arizona? While I still think Arizona has the edge over UConn because it's a path of less resistance, mutual desire on both sides and no complications with the contract, I'm really not sure there's a preference for Arizona over UConn from the networks.

Having just spent 10’days in New England, I can tell you, I saw a ton of UConn gear from Boston to Bar Harbor.

[beefytee]

Salt Lake City & Utah in general is growing.

Honest argument, what is the population of Alabama? I just think it’s interesting we pick & choose markets and all that to suit an agenda.

Alabama have about 5 million and Utah 3.

Auburn and Alabama are already in the same conference. It makes a big difference judging a team to add value than just sticking with the status quo.

In a hypothetical, I could see Auburn getting left behind and a potential new league only selecting Alabama to maximize value.

USC and UCLA are the exemption here, but it truly is the exception. LA is the second biggest market in the country. You do what you need to to make that happen.

[myboynoah]

Holy Crap! When Gottlieb tweets it, we are on the precipice.

Embedded Tweet

[UtahJazzFan88]

Holy Crap! When Gottlieb tweets it, we are on the precipice.

Embedded Tweet

The actual Mountain West Conference ain’t gonna be a winner, the PAC will just call up Boise State, SDSU, UNLV, Colorado State, Fresno State, etc.

[Pelado]

OK, there is enough information out there to get some clarity on B12 expansion issues. In the last few days, multiple national writers have broken the news that the B12 pro rata clause has a limit. The media contract is with Fox and ESPN. ESPN has agreed to honor the clause for up to 4 teams. Fox has agreed to 2 teams. That is why you see more and more people saying that 14 is the limit and there is one more spot left. Given current momentum, that will most certainly be Arizona and the fact that there is only one "safe" pro rata spot left explains why there is extreme urgency by Arizona to get this done quickly. There is only 1 life raft left.

So does that mean that the expansion is over at 14 teams? No. I can guarantee you that if Oregon and UW decide they want to join, Fox will agree to extend the pro rata option for their half of the contract. So slots 15 & 16 are available to those two schools, but I can't imagine Fox would agree to do that for any other remaining P12 schools.

Also, I seriously doubt the B12 wants to go beyond 16 teams because at some point the ACC might blow up and you want to keep your options open there. Which is another reason why UW/OU are likely in at 15, 16 if they want, but nobody else.

All of this makes a lot of sense if you think about it. It never made sense to me that the B12 would be able to add whatever teams they want and in whatever quantity. If the media companies aren't willing to pay for a P12 media deal, why 0n earth would they pay $32M per team to bring most of the P12 teams to the B12? And it wouldn't surprise me at all if Fox/ESPN get veto power over the additions.

And what is the bottom line in all of this? I honestly can't envision any scenario where Utah is invited to the B12. Their fate is pretty much sealed.

One thing I'd tack on is that it's possible that the new PAC media deal could still pay similar money to what the Big 12 is getting. It might be that the big differentiator that made Colorado bolt was the broadcast partner(s).

In their press conference, either the president/chancellor or athletic director of Colorado mentioned that they really like being partnered with ESPN and Fox.

Maybe that was their subtle way of saying they didn't want to be streaming guinea pigs for AppleTV or on non-traditional sports broadcasters like CW, even if the money is similar.

[myboynoah]

The actual Mountain West Conference ain’t gonna be a winner, the PAC will just call up Boise State, SDSU, UNLV, Colorado State, Fresno State, etc.

That would seem to make sense, but those MWC schools will each face $35 million exit fees to jump for the 24 season. I don't see how any of those schools can pay that (although the MWC would make out like a bandit). Better for the MWC to absorb PAC schools looking for a home; no exit fees..

[Pelado]

That would seem to make sense, but those MWC schools will each face $35 million exit fees to jump for the 24 season. I don't see how any of those schools can pay that (although the MWC would make out like a bandit). Better for the MWC to absorb PAC schools looking for a home; no exit fees..

The MW teams could leave for the 2025 season for a $17 million exit fee. If necessary, the PAC could either get AAC teams instead (SMU, Tulane, etc.) or request a waiver to play with fewer than 8 teams for the 2024 season.

[myboynoah]

The MW teams could leave for the 2025 season for a $17 million exit fee. If necessary, the PAC could either get AAC teams instead (SMU, Tulane, etc.) or request a waiver to play with fewer than 8 teams for the 2024 season.

Yes, they could, which highlights the difficult situation in which the PAC finds itself. If UA bolts and the PAC needs to wait until 25 for MWC teams, PAC teams will suddenly need to fill two vacancies in their schedules. Bringing in AAC teams could fill that gap, but then it seems the PAC is making expansion decisions based more on short term availability than sounder long term considerations.

[myboynoah]

Embedded Tweet

[SeattleUte]

Everyone here believing what they want to believe, as is the wont of people like you all. JL's dire predictions for Utah's chances at the Big 12 would be a little annoying if the crazy quilt Big 12 weren't such a dung hill booby prize. I can't think of a school in the Big 12 less Texas and Oklahoma that would be as attractive a candidate anywhere as Utah (except arguably Colorado and Kansas).

Also as is your wont, you're living in the past. There is no P5 anymore. There's a P2. There's no distinction to being in any non-P2 conference over any other. Who cares. Nor will the P2 remain as they are. There's a long game to be played here. Smart people are waiting to see what happens. Everything is fluid.

[Commando]

Everyone here believing what they want to believe, as is the wont of people like you all. JL's dire predictions for Utah's chances at the Big 12 would be a little annoying if the crazy quilt Big 12 weren't such a dung hill booby prize. I can't think of a school in the Big 12 less Texas and Oklahoma that would be as attractive a candidate anywhere as Utah (except arguably Colorado and Kansas).

Also as is your wont, you're living in the past. There is no P5 anymore. There's a P2. There's no distinction to being in any non-P2 conference over any other. Who cares. Nor will the P2 remain as they are. There's a long game to be played here. Smart people are waiting to see what happens. Everything is fluid.

Agreed! I wasn't exactly expecting to turn on NCAA events in 2023 and behold BYU in a P5 conference with Utah weighing its options between Independence and the MWC, but here we are!

[Jeff Lebowski]

Everyone here believing what they want to believe, as is the wont of people like you all. JL's dire predictions for Utah's chances at the Big 12 would be a little annoying if the crazy quilt Big 12 weren't such a dung hill booby prize. I can't think of a school in the Big 12 less Texas and Oklahoma that would be as attractive a candidate anywhere as Utah (except arguably Colorado and Kansas).

Dung hill booby prize. Lol. Love it.

Also as is your wont, you're living in the past. There is no P5 anymore. There's a P2. There's no distinction to being in any non-P2 conference over any other. Who cares. Nor will the P2 remain as they are. There's a long game to be played here. Smart people are waiting to see what happens. Everything is fluid.

I agree that there is a long game. But the most critical part of the long game is survival. When the P12 disintegrates and the remnants (including Utah) are forced to cobble something together with MWC and AAC teams (talk about dung hill booby prizes! lol), the media deal will be pennies on the dollar. Recruits and coaches will scatter to the wind. After 7 years in the wasteland, Utah will be a shell of its current self. BYU will have stability, money, and visibility over that time frame.