2011 NBA Draft

[Surfah]

Jimmer was going to destroy him

I believe that. You know Jimmer was licking his chops for a chance to go at him. He'd treat him like Tre'von.

[Jacob]

Euro stats take 2:

After my post comparing the euro stats of the guys in this years draft a few weeks ago, I concluded that, based on the statistical info, Jonas Valanciunas was the best prospect of the group.
Lately, I've been buying some of the hype on Kanter and leaning towards him. We are really at a loss to compare because we have so little information on Kanter. Kanter was the MVP and dominated in the Euro U18 championship 2 years ago. Jonas also played in that tourney, put up great numbers and was given 1st team honors with Kanter. Last year, Jonas dominated the same tournament, Kanter didn't play. They are the same age. Then we have Kanter dominating the Hoops summit last year--a single game--but Valanciunas didn't play. We can't take much from these youth tourney MVPs, largely because these guys are so much bigger than the competition.

I'm still thinking that Kanter is going to be a skilled big man and a good rebounder even though he's not going to be a high flier. Defense will probably be questionable. But who knows. He hasn't played in 2 years.

Meanwhile, Valanciunas has been playing real minutes in the Lithuanian League and in Euroleage. Euroleague is a tournament for the top 16 teams from all the different european leages. If your team wins it's own league, then you get to play in the Euroleague tournament. Jonas' team won the Lithuanian league a year ago, so they qualified. This shows that he's playing real minutes on a team that is actually pretty good.

So I've looked further into comparing him to Euro bigs at the same age who made it in the NBA. How do his stats compare? The answer is, that I couldn't find any body who put up his numbers at his age. He just turned 19, so I was looking at the Euroleague Stats at age 18 for comparable players. In some cases (Ibaka, Montiejunas) the players team didn't qualify for Euroleague, so i used their stats from their regular league (Spanish, Italian) where the competition is lower than Euroleague, but higher than Lithuanian League.

Also, not many players get real minutes at age 18, so I had to use their stats when they were older. I used /40 stats so that we could compare them on a per minute basis and because that's what was in teh DX database. I also included actual minutes played to see how much they were actually contributing. Sorry I couldn't format better:

Player (age, minutes) per 40 points/rebounds/blocks/fg%
Valanciunas (18, 14.9) 20.3/14.5/1.7/70%
P Gasol (20, 25.7) 27.8/9/1/67%
M Gasol (19, 4.1) 14.1/5.4/2.2/40%
M Gasol (20, 16.5) 12.6/10.1/1.3/52%
Ibaka (19, 16) 17.4/11/2.5/54%
Bargnani (18, 8) 11.3/7.1/0.6/54%
Bargnani (19, 9) 17/9.6/0.8/50%
Montiejunas (19, 20) 18.2/9.20.4/52%
Vesely (18, 19.9) 10.3/7.1/0.6/73%
Splitter (19, 17.8) 15.3/9.9/1.6/53%
Asik (23, 22) 15.8/10.7/2.5/65%
Gallinari put up lots of points at 19, but not a big, so not a real comp

Nobody was even in the ballpark of Valanciunas' rebounding numbers. Not either of the Gasol's even at age 20. Only Pau scored more per minute, and Pau was 20. Marc at 20 played real minutes, but didn't compare to Jonas. Montiejunas and Vesely both played major minutes at a young age, but neither appears to have taken the next step in the subsequent years.
How do these numbers translate? I don't know. But what Jonas accomplished this year at 18 looks like it is pretty unprecedented for a Euro big man. He doesn't appear to have the best post moves yet, and his team doesn't run its offense through him. But he's got a really high motor, plays hard on D and on the boards and he shoots almost 80% free throws. Those things translate. He's allegedly 6-11 with a great wingspan, so we can overlook the fact that he's a good-but-not-great athlete. While a bit shorter, he looks like a far superior athlete to Marc Gasol.

Jonas is playing in the FIBA U19 world championships this year where he will probably dominate again. Too bad that tournament starts the week AFTER the draft.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

From DX:

"Some new game footage of Enes Kanter is circulating from his prep school days. I'm watching one game now. It's fairly underwhelming stuff."

"I don't know if he's just tired here or what but he looks really lethargic playing vs very weak competition. Getting destroyed on defense."

"Watching some of the other Kanter games now. Pretty much the same story. Not putting any effort in. Playing zero defense. Not boxing out."

[Jacob]

It is prep school tape...
But Kanter is really like Darko in the sense that he's never played in a competitive league. NBA GM's have nothing to go on. He's Yi, doing workouts against chairs.

[Surfah]

Sounds like Jimmer had another strong private workout for the Kings today.

http://www.cowbellkingdom.com/2011/0...jimmer-and-co/

Jimmer Fredette - BYU

The senior guard from BYU is known for his incredible shooting and scoring ability. Whether his game translates to the NBA is unknown at this point, but rumors have him flying up the draft board because of his private workouts. The Kings matched him up against the athletic Randy Culpepper to test his defensive skills and lateral quickness. UConn’s Kemba Walker was supposed to battle Fredette but a scheduling conflict moved his workout with the Kings to next week.

Measurements:

Height: 6′-0.75″ w/o shoes; 6′-2.5″ w/ shoes.
Weight: 196-pounds; 7.7% body fat.
Wingspan: 6′-4.5″
Standing Reach: 8′-0.5″

Testing:

Vertical: 28.0″ no step vert; 33.0″ max vert.
Strength: 14 reps on bench press (185-pounds).
Agility Drills: Lane agility- 10.42 seconds; 3/4 court sprint- 3.21 seconds.

Thoughts on Jimmer Fredette:

Jimmer was as advertised - a scorer with unlimited range who gives a great interview. His personality is disarming as he effortlessly answered questions from a large group of unfamiliar faces. As far as a scouting report, here are my impressions: Fredette has almost every shot in his bag, in a Steve Nash kind of way. He pulls up from deep and creates space in the lane with a jab step fall away. And on a drive today, he tossed the ball up so high on the glass that it looked like it would’ve gone over the backboard, before falling right in the rim. Jimmer was quick enough to deal with the speedy Randy Culpepper on both ends of the floor and has much better muscle definition than I thought he would.

During the interview phase, Jimmer said he models his game after New Jersey Nets guard Deron Williams because of their similarities in size After comparing the two, I was surprised with how similar they were statistically I’m not saying Fredette has the upside of Williams, but the physical comparison was closer than expected. Fredette seems to have a high basketball IQ, good passing skills and an understanding of offensive schemes. If I was to point to one negative, Fredette plays on his heels, not his toes which will hurt his ability to stay in front of quicker players in the NBA. If I were to make a judgement, I would say his flat-footed play makes him slower on the court than the gaudy numbers he put up at the combine.

[Surfah]

I also love the way Jimmer is handling his business. He's set to workout for the Jazz next week versus Knight and Kemba but they're not for sure so he's willing to accommodate their schedule. He wants them.

http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/blogsja...draft.html.csp

[smokymountainrain]

Sounds like Jimmer had another strong private workout for the Kings today.

http://www.cowbellkingdom.com/2011/0...jimmer-and-co/

video of his workout...

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKTtfWnpf4w"]YouTube - ‪Kings Pre-Draft Workout: Jimmer Fredette 6/9/11‬‏[/nomedia]

[Surfah]

video of his workout...

YouTube - ‪Kings Pre-Draft Workout: Jimmer Fredette 6/9/11‬‏

It never ceases to amaze me how good these guys are shooting in an empty gym. I could watch Jimmer ball all day.

[myboynoah]

Sounds like Jimmer had another strong private workout for the Kings today.

http://www.cowbellkingdom.com/2011/0...jimmer-and-co/

Jimmer Fredette - BYU

The senior guard from BYU is known for his incredible shooting and scoring ability. Whether his game translates to the NBA is unknown at this point, but rumors have him flying up the draft board because of his private workouts. The Kings matched him up against the athletic Randy Culpepper to test his defensive skills and lateral quickness. UConn’s Kemba Walker was supposed to battle Fredette but a scheduling conflict moved his workout with the Kings to next week.

Measurements:

Height: 6′-0.75″ w/o shoes; 6′-2.5″ w/ shoes.
Weight: 196-pounds; 7.7% body fat.
Wingspan: 6′-4.5″
Standing Reach: 8′-0.5″

Testing:

Vertical: 28.0″ no step vert; 33.0″ max vert.
Strength: 14 reps on bench press (185-pounds).
Agility Drills: Lane agility- 10.42 seconds; 3/4 court sprint- 3.21 seconds.

Thoughts on Jimmer Fredette:

Jimmer was as advertised - a scorer with unlimited range who gives a great interview. His personality is disarming as he effortlessly answered questions from a large group of unfamiliar faces. As far as a scouting report, here are my impressions: Fredette has almost every shot in his bag, in a Steve Nash kind of way. He pulls up from deep and creates space in the lane with a jab step fall away. And on a drive today, he tossed the ball up so high on the glass that it looked like it would’ve gone over the backboard, before falling right in the rim. Jimmer was quick enough to deal with the speedy Randy Culpepper on both ends of the floor and has much better muscle definition than I thought he would.
During the interview phase, Jimmer said he models his game after New Jersey Nets guard Deron Williams because of their similarities in size After comparing the two, I was surprised with how similar they were statistically I’m not saying Fredette has the upside of Williams, but the physical comparison was closer than expected. Fredette seems to have a high basketball IQ, good passing skills and an understanding of offensive schemes. If I was to point to one negative, Fredette plays on his heels, not his toes which will hurt his ability to stay in front of quicker players in the NBA. If I were to make a judgement, I would say his flat-footed play makes him slower on the court than the gaudy numbers he put up at the combine.

It's as if they are unable let the reality of what they are seeing in person and right in front of them affect their own preconceived biases.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

One name we'll start hearing more about this week is Reggie Jackson of BC. I'm not sure if his knee is fully recovered but I'm assuming it is if he's taking on 3 workouts in a week for Indiana, NY, and Charlotte.

If he's not coming back too early from the knee injury I bet he doesn't fall lower than 19.

[MarkGrace]

Fran has a new breakdown on Valanciunas.

June 9 Update: This is an NBA draft that is devoid of big men, so Lithuania's 7-foot, 245-pound 19-year-old, Jonas Valanciunas, has a lot of interest from teams in the lottery. At his age, there is no doubting his intriguing potential, but expecting him to help a team right away is unrealistic.

More critically for teams in position to select him is projecting where Valanciunas' game will be five years from now. It is not inconceivable to some NBA personnel that he could be the best player in this draft by then -- of course the risk is that the NBA executive that drafts him could be fired by then.

Playing background

Valanciunas has played in virtually every major European junior tournament since he was 16 and he has been one of the continent's most prolific talents. In fact, he has been Europe's under-16 MVP and its under-18 MVP in different summers. He plans to play for Lithuania's European champions in July's Under-19 World Championships in Latvia. It will be his fifth straight summer representing his country.

This past season, at 18 and in his first full season in the Euroleague, Valanciunas averaged almost eight points and six rebounds in 15 minutes on 71 percent shooting from the field. That doesn't sound like much, but only a handful of the top-25 high school seniors in the United States could realistically accomplish that.

Future Position

Valanciunas may be the best or, more precisely, the only pure low post center at the top of this draft. While his longtime European rival, Enes Kanter, measured out at 6-foot-11 and 260 pounds, Kanter has the skill level play both inside and out and will likely be utilized that way. The young Lithuanian is going to spend most of his eventual NBA career within 10 feet of the rim.

Athleticism

I am a big fan of Valanciunas' athleticism for a young player his size. He runs the court well and jumps well. In addition, he has a reasonably quick second jump around the basket, making him a potentially effective offensive rebounder and shot blocker.

His major drawback at the moment is his lack of NBA-level strength, balance and defensive acumen in the paint. In fact, many times this past season, Valanciunas was manhandled around the basket by older and more mature Euroleague post players. It is the main reason it will be hard for him to log major minutes right away in the NBA.

Skill level

While Valanciunas has tremendous offensive potential, it is based more on his athleticism than his skill level. Right now, he scores most of his points off energy plays like offensive rebounds, fast breaks and in the screen-and-roll game, where he gets a running start to the rim.

His lack of strength doesn't allow him to get close enough to the basket yet to utilize any low post moves. And his passing out of the post is average at this point. But based on the fact that he is a near 90 percent free throw shooter this season, there is an expectation that an offensive game can be developed as he physically matures. That is critical because he shows, at this point, no propensity for playing on the perimeter.

Attitude and disposition

Despite his lack of strength, Valanciunas is a competitor who did not back down this season as a teenager in a man's league. Even when he was getting beaten up, he played hard and with emotion and showed a mature disposition as he took his pounding. His motor runs at full throttle and he looks like he loves to play.

Best case scenario: Pau Gasol

There are athletic similarities between Gasol and Valanciunas but I emphasize here that this is a best case scenario. Both were highly successful at the European junior level as both won Under-18 European titles. And both contributed at the highest level of European basketball as teenagers.

Don't expect for Valanciunas to have the same impact as Gasol did in his rookie season. As the No. 3 pick in the 2001 draft by the Atlanta Hawks, Gasol was traded to the Memphis Grizzlies for Shareef Abdur-Rahim. Then, as a 20-year-old in his first NBA season, he went on to average 17 points and nine rebounds.

If Valanciunas plays in the NBA this coming season, he will be one of the youngest players in the league at 19. However, with a potential lockout looming, it would not surprise me if the young Lithuanian spends another year honing his skills in Europe. While it won't make fans of the team that drafts him happy, it may be the best way for him to mirror what Gasol did in his rookie season. -- By Fran Fraschilla

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft...as-valanciunas

[MartyFunkhouser]

I also love the way Jimmer is handling his business. He's set to workout for the Jazz next week versus Knight and Kemba but they're not for sure so he's willing to accommodate their schedule. He wants them.

http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/blogsja...draft.html.csp

Fredette has been handling this stuff perfectly. I'm certainly impressed by it.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

Has Fran ever evaluated a European prospect and not said "wait five years"? It's like it is his safety net on every player he talks about. And yet he also generally emphasizes that players like Montiejunas/Valanciunas/Vesely are playing in leagues that are a step up from college ball and have been playing pro ball since they were very young, so it would seem that the Euro's should be able to make an impact at least as quickly as the college kids if they are as good.

[MarkGrace]

Surveyed a lot of NBA teams about where Biyombo & Motiejunas projected to go. Both appear to be in 10-20 range.

http://twitter.com/#!/chadfordinside...76418635730944

[YOUTUBE]SgNY0cFr1JM[/YOUTUBE]

One of the least impressive workout videos I've watched so far. Which, of course, probably doesn't mean anything.

[smokymountainrain]

http://twitter.com/#!/chadfordinside...76418635730944

[YOUTUBE]SgNY0cFr1JM[/YOUTUBE]

One of the least impressive workout videos I've watched so far. Which, of course, probably doesn't mean anything.

It seems to be a general consensus that people came away from that workout fairly unimpressed with Biyombo. That said, I was watching long stretches of game tape from this past season on youtube last night and I saw enough to convince me that if he's there at 12 (assuming he's 18), you take him.

The bad...

No offensive ability outside 5 feet
Extremely raw in every aspect - doesn't move well without the ball, bites on pump fakes, doesn't position himself well on rebounds and jumps too early a lot of times when rebounding, probably not much of a passer (although it's hard to say, because his teammates never give him the ball unless he had an open dunk).
mediocre hands

The good...
Has an excellent motor - I don't think I ever saw moments of laziness in the games I watched
He's strong and he'll use his strength to back a small guy down in the post and fighting for rebounds
Despite his raw rebounding, he fights hard for rebounds and he will find his guy and box him out - it almost looks like his coach has pounded box outs into his head for a long time. He's a good rebounder because of his athleticism, motor and strength, but could be better if he played smarter and had better hands
runs the floor well on both offense and defense
Is a very effective shot blocker and shot changer - is definitely a legit presence in the paint. I had to cringe every time he bit on pump fake, however. He's such a quick leaper, there is just no reason to do that and it resulted in a foul nearly every time.
Just based on the way he plays, he looks to be coachable.

I think the bottom line on Biyombo is that you don't draft him because it's like playing 4 on 5 on offense and due to his mediocre hands, you do draft him because he plays hard all the time, rebounds well, impacts the game defensively near the rim and due to his athleticism and length, does have tremendous potential.

He's a huge risk, but one worth taking at 12.