The Official Jimmerphilia Thread

[Flystripper]

That's not obvious to me.

hmm ok

[smokymountainrain]

I've complained about PT for the Jazz' young players, but in Sacto, it's almost comical to look at the boxscores and see a second year lottery pick get multiple DNP-CDs when there are just a few games left in the season and the only thing left to play for is a chance to go 30-52 on the year. Unreal.

[TexTechCoug]

That's not obvious to me.

Exactly, there is zero evidence that Jimmer couldn't be a consistent starter and contributor. He showed all the signs of having a very good sophomore season until he was buried on the most poorly run team this side of Charlotte.

[Flystripper]

Exactly, there is zero evidence that Jimmer couldn't be a consistent starter and contributor. He showed all the signs of having a very good sophomore season until he was buried on the most poorly run team this side of Charlotte.

Given the amount of very good point guards in the NBA right now I don't see Jimmer as a consistent starter and he is probably too small to be a starting shooting guard, but I do think he could be a consistent and significant contributor off the bench. 15-25 minutes per night is nothing to sneeze at.

[MarkGrace]

Exactly, there is zero evidence that Jimmer couldn't be a consistent starter and contributor. He showed all the signs of having a very good sophomore season until he was buried on the most poorly run team this side of Charlotte.

Right now or ever?

He's not a starter right now, nor do I think he could be. Somewhere down the line? Maybe. But for now he's still just caught between two positions and you can't start him at either

But I agree he deserves rotation minutes right now.

[MarkGrace]

Given the amount of very good point guards in the NBA right now I don't see Jimmer as a consistent starter and he is probably too small to be a starting shooting guard, but I do think he could be a consistent and significant contributor off the bench. 15-25 minutes per night is nothing to sneeze at.

That's where I think he is right now as well. This is from his player card last year:

Offensively, he had some issues too. While he scored at a decent clip (16.3 points per 40 minutes), he struggled at the point, especially dribbling against pressure, and had the lowest assist ratio of any point guard.

Shockingly, his turnover ratio is higher this year than last (from 10.4 last year to 11.0 this year), and his assist ratio is even lower (yes, lower than the year in which he had the lowest assist ratio of any regular point guard -- it went from 16.8 to 15.0). His ball skills just have to improve significantly for him to be a starting point. And as bad as he was on defense last year, he's been absolutely torched at the PG position this year, with a PER differential of -7.5. The team's defense has also been significantly worse with him on the floor than off (+4.4 points better with him off), not to mention the dubious distinction he earned in ESPN's study of wing defenders as ranking just behind Mike Miller as the worst perimeter defenders in the league.

Surprisingly he's had more success at the 2 this year. He's played 12% of the team's minutes at each the 1 and 2 spots, and at the 2 he's posted a PER differential of 1.3 and his own PER is a full 3 points higher at that position than at the 1. But ultimately he's just not big or athletic enough to be a starter in the NBA at that position either.

But his offense (especially his shooting and his scoring rate of 20 is good) has real value, and in terms of on/off court helps makes up some of the difference. That's why I think he should at least be some type of contributor at this point. 7-10 minutes at each position depending on the matchups.

[jay santos]

That's where I think he is right now as well. This is from his player card last year:



Shockingly, his turnover ratio is higher this year than last, and his assist ratio is even lower (yes, lower than the year in which he had the lowest assist ratio of any regular point guard). His ball skills just have to improve significantly for him to be a starting point. And as bad as he was on defense last year, he's been absolutely torched at the PG position this year, with a PER differential of -7.5. The team's defense has also been significantly worse with him on the floor than off (+4.4 points better with him off), not to mention the dubious distinction he earned in ESPN's study of wing defenders as ranking just behind Mike Miller as the worst perimeter defenders in the league.

Surprisingly he's had more success at the 2 this year. He's played 12% of the team's minutes at each the 1 and 2 spots, and at the 2 he's posted a surprising PER differential of 1.3 and his own PER is a full 3 points higher at that position than at the 1. But ultimately he's just not big or athletic enough to be a starter in the NBA at that position either.

But his offense (especially his shooting) has real value, and in terms of on/off court helps makes up some of the difference. That's why I think he should at least be some type of consistent contributor at this point.

I thought you were the guy that doesn't trust any stats?

[Donuthole]

I thought you were the guy that doesn't trust any stats?

Huh?

[MarkGrace]

Huh?

Don't worry, we already had this conversation. He can just go dig it up.

[Joe Public]

Which skills does Steve Nash have that Jimmer doesn't have? I haven't seen enough of Nash to know, so I ask. My understanding is Nash is a high FG%/FT% shooter who runs an offense well and is a liability on defense. If that is accurate (again, I haven't seen enough of Nash to say either way), is there any reason Jimmer couldn't develop into a similar type of player?

EDIT: MG may have just answered this. Lack of ball skills? I didn't realize he was that poor; I thought it was more a function of how Sacto is using him.

[jay santos]

Don't worry, we already had this conversation. He can just go dig it up.

I don't remember. All I remember is anytime I bring up a stat, you seem to have a reason why that stat shouldn't be trusted (ie football pass rating and basketball height). I'm sure you could break down all those basketball stats in a similar way.

[jay santos]

Which skills does Steve Nash have that Jimmer doesn't have? I haven't seen enough of Nash to know, so I ask. My understanding is Nash is a high FG%/FT% shooter who runs an offense well and is a liability on defense. If that is accurate (again, I haven't seen enough of Nash to say either way), is there any reason Jimmer couldn't develop into a similar type of player?

EDIT: MG may have just answered this. Lack of ball skills? I didn't realize he was that poor; I thought it was more a function of how Sacto is using him.

I don't see Jimmer ever being Steve Nash. He'll never be that quick or have those ball skills.

[MarkGrace]

I don't remember. All I remember is anytime I bring up a stat, you seem to have a reason why that stat shouldn't be trusted (ie football pass rating and basketball height). I'm sure you could break down all those basketball stats in a similar way.

We already had a discussion about those football stats. It's all there if you want to read, but it's not worth regurgitating here.

And you can't trust height? What does that even mean? If someone measures 6'5", I trust that they're 6'5". It's just not the only consideration.

[Surfah]

+/- statistics are bogus. They're a silly way to evaluate a player or even a team.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web..._on_plus_minus

That said, Jimmer needs to work on his handle and defense. No surprise there. However, despite the stats that MG put up, I've watched probably more of Jimmer except Junkie the last two years (I've watched more Kings games than Lakers) and his improvement in both of those areas over his rookie year are obvious. Still not great, but a marked improvement. I think Jimmer's ceiling in the NBA is a Jamal Crawford/Jason Terry type player. Someone who comes off the bench for instant offense and someone who stays in the game late because of big shot making ability and FT shooting. There are at least a dozen teams in the league that could use someone like that. Jimmer is just on the wrong team. Walton said it best during the Mercer game, Jimmer will be a decent rotational player in the NBA, just not with the Kings.

[jay santos]

We already had a discussion about those football stats. It's all there if you want to read, but it's not worth regurgitating here.

And you can't trust height? What does that even mean? If someone measures 6'5", I trust that they're 6'5". It's just not the only consideration.

Hmm, link to our discussion? I remember it vaguely now that you mention it. I remember you using terms like "eyeball test" and wanting to discard every stat comparison when we were talking Heaps. Then you wanted to throw out the height comparison in the other discussion. I was assuming you're one of those guys that are distrustful of any and all stats.