"You Gotta Love It Baby" Official Jazz thread

[Sizzle]

Think of the guards that he sees often in the NBA: Steve Nash, Aaron Brooks, Brandon Jennings, Devin Harris, Steph Curry, Chris Paul, Tony Parker. Throw in most of the back-ups in the league and there are a whole host of players that he could abuse in the post if he'd put in some time developing that part of his game and the Jazz incorporated it more into their sets.

I absolutely agree.

[MarkGrace]

The Jazz and the Monroe Doctrine

The Utah Jazz historically don't do a lot of workouts, often targeting a few players in their draft range and then selecting from that group. But when they do workouts, they do them right. Over the past few days, they've examined some of the best prospects in the draft.

On Friday, they brought in Georgetown big man Greg Monroe for a solo workout. Monroe's agent, David Falk, will let Monroe work out against only Cousins or Favors. Since neither player is projected to be available at No. 9, Monroe went at it alone in Utah.

On Sunday, the Jazz brought in Gordon Hayward, Luke Babbitt, Xavier Henry and Al-Farouq Aminu for a head-to-head workout of the four best swingmen in Utah's draft range.

The Jazz don't have any other high-profile workouts scheduled. Glean from that what you will, but I think it's safe to say those are the five prospects the Jazz are considering at No. 9. Monroe fits a big need if Carlos Boozer leaves this summer. Henry, Babbitt, Hayward and Aminu all fill a void left by Kyle Korver hitting free agency.

From the sound of things, Monroe is still atop the Jazz's list. But it seems like Babbitt is strongly in the running, too. The Jazz have been higher on Babbitt than most all year. The rest of the league is playing catch-up to what Utah was saying in January.

[ame="http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/blog?name=nba_draft&id=5260049"]NBA draft 2010: Trade rumors include San Antonio Spurs moving Tony Parker for picks - ESPN[/ame]

Given the Jazz history, none of these guys will end up in Utah.

[MarkGrace]

A peek inside teams' numbers

DeMarcus Cousins

A number of old school GMs remain dismissive when it comes to using stats to evaluate draft prospects, but more and more NBA teams are employing stat gurus to develop formulas that can predict pro success.

Some of them run teams, like the Houston Rockets' Daryl Morey. Others, like Dean Oliver of the Nuggets, have been key consultants for years. And a handful of other teams are getting into the stat game for the first time.

Teams are using everything from projected PER (player efficiency rating), WARP (wins over replacement player), EWA (estimated wins added) and all sorts of variations and compilations of formulas to project NBA success. Every team has their own system and they rarely produce exactly the same results.

Our own John Hollinger recently weighed in with his own Draft Rater formula to break down the 2010 prospects.

John Hollinger's Top 10

Draft prospects as ranked by projected PER
Rank Player Team Projected PER
1 DeMarcus Cousins Kentucky 16.14
2. Evan Turner Ohio State 14.79
3. John Wall Kentucky 14.68
4. Greg Monroe Georgetown 14.39
5. Derrick Favors Georgia Tech 13.98
6. Xavier Henry Kansas 13.52
7. Luke Babbitt Nevada 13.35
8. Al-Farouq Aminu Wake Forest 13.30
9. Wesley Johnson Syracuse 13.03
10. Greivis Vasquez Maryland 12.97

Hollinger's top 10 closely mirrors the top 10 on our Big Board, with the exception of Greivis Vasquez, who falls outside our top 30.

I talked to three other NBA executives who use various forms of statistical analysis to rank their players to get a feel for what they're seeing. The GMs agreed to share their statistically based top-10 lists as long as I didn't disclose the team and as I long as I didn't divulge the statistical methods they were using.

I then aggregated those lists and here's a look at what they came up with:
Metric-minded GMs' Top 10

Draft prospects as ranked by our three stat-head GMs.
Rank Player Team
1 DeMarcus Cousins Kentucky
2. Derrick Favors Georgia Tech
3. Evan Turner Ohio State
4. Greg Monroe Georgetown
5. John Wall Kentucky
6. Xavier Henry Kansas
7. Luke Babbitt Nevada
8. Al-Farouq Aminu Wake Forest
9. Wesley Johnson Syracuse
10. Ed Davis North Carolina

This group matches up closely with Hollinger's findings and is even more in line with the top 10 on our Big Board. Each team had an outlier that the other two teams didn't rank as highly. One team had Cole Aldrich ranked in the top five. Another had Manny Harris and Gordon Hayward in the top 10.

There are a few other things to note. The first is that, by statistical measurements at least, it looks like Greg Monroe should be going higher than No. 9 -- where we have him projected in our mock draft right now. The same holds true for Henry, who we currently have at No. 15. The love also keeps on coming for Luke Babbitt, who I believe is now seriously in the discussion for Utah at No. 9.

One guy who isn't getting any love is Ekpe Udoh. That's because Udoh is already 23 years old and virtually all of the stat gurus view that as a problem. Players who are older than 22 when they are drafted have terrible track records in the NBA. That works against him in virtually every formula out there.

[ame="http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/blog?name=nba_draft&id=5263560"]NBA draft 2010: DeMarcus Cousins leads prospects in metrics-based rankings - ESPN[/ame]

[Color Me Badd Fan]

If you have the chance to draft a Fucka, you do it. The jersey sales alone are worth it.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

I don't see any possible way that Wesley Johnson has a draft day slide that lands him at #9. But if Babbitt, Henry, Monroe, and others can put in some impressive workouts as they also come up well in whatever statistical analysis are being used, maybe Johnson falls to 6 or 7 and makes it much easier for Utah to move up to get him.

I wonder what his workout schedule is. Is he not visiting teams outside the top 5?

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

At the end of that article Ford lists all the participants of the huge workout New Jersey is conducting. He also says 20 teams will be in attendance.

I always wonder why some teams, including the Jazz this time, wouldn't at least send one rep to watch those workouts when you get to see so many players at the same place. Almost every player on that list is sure to be a 2nd rounder or UFA, but I can't believe an NBA team wouldn't at least send an assistant scout to go and get a look at that kind of quantity over the course of a few days.

[Sizzle]

If you have the chance to draft a Fucka, you do it. The jersey sales alone are worth it.

The Jazz already drafted the next Fucka. He just can't get over here fast enough. Sloan missed out on the chance to mold the original Fucka, so he is doin everything in his power to hold out for Fucka 2.0.

[Sizzle]

At the end of that article Ford lists all the participants of the huge workout New Jersey is conducting. He also says 20 teams will be in attendance.

I always wonder why some teams, including the Jazz this time, wouldn't at least send one rep to watch those workouts when you get to see so many players at the same place. Almost every player on that list is sure to be a 2nd rounder or UFA, but I can't believe an NBA team wouldn't at least send an assistant scout to go and get a look at that kind of quantity over the course of a few days.

I don't get it either.

On a somewhat unrelated note, I seriously hope Wesley Matthews and Sundiata Gaines' stories last year make Utah more appealing for some of the undradfed RFAs. There are players every year that can make it, though not always like Wes. Hopefully we land another one this year.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

The Jazz already drafted the next Fucka. He just can't get over here fast enough. Sloan missed out on the chance to mold the original Fucka, so he is doin everything in his power to hold out for Fucka 2.0.

I don't think any subsequent Fucka can quite match the original Fucka.

[MarkGrace]

Today's workout was Patterson, Sanders, Lawal, Ryan Richards, Jerome Randle and Jared Quayle.

Strange group.

[Sizzle]

I don't think any subsequent Fucka can quite match the original Fucka.

But that's the question that we may never know the answer to: Can the European Fucka bang with the Americans over the course of an 82 game season? I think he is too frail, and needs more meat on his bones like the more athletic and Better built Americans. Tomic may give us an idea of what it may have been like, but you are right, there is only one original Fucka.

[Sizzle]

Today's workout was Patterson, Sanders, Lawal, Ryan Richards, Jerome Randle and Jared Quayle.

Strange group.

Patterson is interesting, though not at 9. Same with the rest of those guys. Now, if we were moving down an acquiring more picks, it makes some sense.

[smokymountainrain]

Patterson is interesting, though not at 9. Same with the rest of those guys. Now, if we were moving down an acquiring more picks, it makes some sense.

I look at Patterson as a low risk/decent reward pick. I think he's that 3/4 tweener who is in the draft every year - usually second round - who won't be a star but is almost guaranteed to be a productive rotation guy off the bench.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

Today's workout was Patterson, Sanders, Lawal, Ryan Richards, Jerome Randle and Jared Quayle.

Strange group.

One of these things is not like the other, one of these things is not the same.

[MarkGrace]

Ford has us taking Babbitt in his newest mock, with Monroe going 5th. I just can't get excited about him.

Analysis: On Friday, the Jazz brought in Greg Monroe for a solo workout. That was followed up, on Sunday, with a big workout featuring Aminu, Hayward, Babbitt and Xavier Henry.

Monroe would fit a need if Carlos Boozer were to leave this summer. Henry, Babbitt, Hayward and Aminu could all fill a void left by Kyle Korver hitting free agency.

From the sound of things, Monroe is still atop the Jazz's list, but in this scenario he's off the board before the Jazz pick. It seems as though Babbitt is strongly in the running, too. The Jazz have been higher on Babbitt than most all year. The rest of the league is playing catch-up to what Utah was saying in January.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2010/insider/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=MockDraft-100609