"You Gotta Love It Baby" Official Jazz thread

[MarkGrace]

If anyone showed besides deron we'd have a chance in this thing.

[old_gregg]

Ugh. Jason Terry. Does deron usually wear a mouth guard?

[MarkGrace]

I am guessing you could say that for most teams. When their wings are hitting from 3 it makes them much better.

Yeah, I suppose so. But I say those two specifically because I think they have a bigger impact than just saying "wings." For example, I don't think Raja hitting a couple 3pters impacts the Jazz as much as AK does. Raja teams are mostly going to guard, where with Klinks I think a lot of teams take a wait-and-see approach. In the Miami game the other night, Lebron just played centerfield on him; if he hits a couple deep shots, they probably start to step out on him. It's like with Korver last year; regardless of whether or not he's hit any 3's, he's still going to force people out on the floor to guard him, so you get spacing whether or not you get the result of hitting the 3pter. With AK you only get the spacing once he starts hitting -- people aren't going to guard him just because.

CJ I say because he can do it in such volume. He rarely hits a 3pter here and there; it seems most often he's either misfiring every attempt or hitting like 3-6 a game. He's one of the few Jazz guys that can really getting it going in that way, and when he does he piles up pretty efficient scoring numbers (since he can't get to the line at all) and really gives the bench some scoring punch.

I really see those two hitting 3 balls as impacting the team differently than other guys.

[MarkGrace]

I agree with Grace in principle. It's definitely too early to call any rookie a bust and as he mentioned, guys like Henry, Babbit, Turner, etc - have looked like crap as well. But...

In regard to Hayward, he didn't justify his place in the draft based on the guy we saw in college. He couldn't shoot, was only an average rebounder, a below average passer/playmaker/ball handler, couldn't defend and was only an average to below average athlete - bottom line - he is we thought he was and who the Jazz should have known he was. There was no reason, based on the guy we watched at Butler, to think he would be a good NBA player.

At least with a guy like Turner - assuming he doesn't pan out - you saw potential in college. He was a flat out beast on the glass, he could handle, pass, make plays, he had good size for a PG/SG at 6'7", he was an excellent defender, etc etc. If a guy like that turns into a bust, you don't see it coming from a mile away like in the case of Padge- er, Hayward.

See, but this is where I think the evaluations of Hayward get a bit disingenuous. For example, Hayward averaged a pace adjusted 10.3 rp/40, Turner 10.5. How is one of these guys an average rebounder, while the other is a flat out beast on the glass? Sure you could make the argument that the expectations of their positions were different, but at a similar size and with a similar frame, I don't think that accounts for the discrepancy in how you would describe their abilities. I posted this earlier in the thread:

Gordon Hayward. I admit when I saw Hayward going in the top ten picks in mock drafts, I thought it was borderline absurd. Sure, he'd carried Butler on their improbable run to the NCAA title game as their sometimes lone offensive catalyst, but everyone knows players who reach the Final Four are often massively overrated in the draft (especially the melanin-challenged ones). Then I ran the numbers. While Hayward was horrid from distance last year (dropping off from 45% on three-pointers as a freshman to 29% last season on a similar number of attempts), every other facet of his game was eye-opening. He's a beast on the boards; he's aggressive getting to the line; he's a decent enough playmaker and could fill in as a point-forward in a pinch; and he was outrageously efficient as a scorer.

I looked at Hayward's advanced numbers, and this assessment is pretty dead on. In addition to the rebounding comparison above, Hayward bested Turner in every scoring efficiency stat conceivable, including eFG%, TS% and PPS. I'm not arguing that Hayward was a comparable prospect to Tuner, obviously they went #2 and #9 for a reason, I'm just curious as to how people regard one as a do-it-all wonder in college while the other was incapable of doing anything at even an average level.

Watching Hayward the last couple nights, I think his biggest problems are his body and his head, not his basketball skills. He just physically really needs to develop -- most kids coming into the league at his age do, and watching the mass difference between him and VC was just kind of astounding -- and appears to lack confidence right now, which at times seems to be an unfortunate theme under Jerry. Deron was one seriously cocky sucker coming of the Illini's tourney run, and it was astounding to see just how crushed his confidence was during his rookie season with the Jazz.

The other thing that has been disappointing is that he's seemingly regressed as the season has gone on. After summer and the preseason, he looked like a guy Jerry was going to put into the rotation right away. Even through the first 3 games of the season it appeared that way, as he averaged 20 mpg and got 6 ppg and 4 rpg -- to me that was a decent jumping off point, and I hoped he'd get better instead of going backwards. But, again, another unfortunate trend under Jerry. Kosta looked like a player in the making his rookie year, by his 2nd year he looked like didn't even belong in the league, so we'll see how this goes.

Could he end up a bust? Of course, and at his draft slot the odds say he's more likely to be a bust than an all-star. That said, I'm not going to dismiss him after 20 games, or his rookie year, oven a couple years given how young he was entering the league.

[MarkGrace]

As for Turner, I think there were some foreseeable question marks with the kid, despite the fact that everyone was touting him as can't-miss. The first was his athleticism. It's funny that everyone rails Hayward's athleticism, because watching the two of them in college I thought they were actually pretty comparable athletes. Neither was terribly explosive, and I found it pretty unsurprising when they tested very similarly at the predraft camp. Hayward bested Turner in no-step vert, they had the exact same max vert (34.5"), Hayward did one more rep in the strength test, Turner beat him in the agility test, and Hayward had a slightly faster 3/4 sprint. But overall, they damn-near had identical measurements all told.

The other thing was moving Turner off-ball. Kid was not a good shooter, and didn't look like a guy who was comfortable spotting up or moving without the ball. You always kind of wondered what was going to happen to him when the ball was taken out of his hands.
http://www.cougarboard.com/noframes/...tml?id=5554726
http://www.cougarboard.com/noframes/...tml?id=5329408

That said, I still expected him to be a pretty big-time player and am shocked that he's struggled to this degree out of the gates. My guess is he'll be fine and it's just going to take him longer than most thought because he needs to accustom himself to a different style of play.

[Blueintheface]

Watching Hayward the last couple nights, I think his biggest problems are his body and his head, not his basketball skills. He just physically really needs to develop -- most kids coming into the league at his age do, and watching the mass difference between him and VC was just kind of astounding

I get that I'm being negative and preemptive in dismissing Heyward but as you pointed out, his regression is troubling. True, Sloan seems to have a way of making that mental instability in young players grow into full blown Eyore-itis but his lateral motion (yes I understand Horny and Stock weren't lateral guys) as well as his ability to just play basketball appears wanting.

I think it still remains to be seen how his career will end up but he better learn quickly how to do 1 thing really well or he won't get a shot to show that he can do a few things at all.

[Jacob]

Ronnie Brewer, at about the same age, was a much better rookie that Hayward.
It's gotta be his head. Hayward has no idea what he's supposed to be doing on the court. Offense or defense.

[Blueintheface]

Ronnie Brewer, at about the same age, was a much better rookie that Hayward.
It's gotta be his head. Hayward has no idea what he's supposed to be doing on the court. Offense or defense.

But remember Brewer was dubbed as perhaps the most athletic in the top 20 but was downgraded based on that broken-arm-limbs-akimbo looking shot which is why he fell to the Jazz.

I thought at the draft position the Jazz did fine by picking up Brewer, I just wasn't thrilled at the volume of his playing time after it was apparent that he couldn't shoot from outside of a foot over the rim.

[Blueintheface]

Another strong start by the rookie. Wow. Just wow.

[MarkGrace]

Another slow start. Who in the starting lineup needs to be put to the bench? Obviously not Deron, and Hayward's not a starter, so that leaves Bell, AK, Sap, and Jefferson.

Who goes? There needs to be some changes, and personally I think it has to do with the two PF scheme -- I'm still not sold on Sap as a starter, and would really like to see a real C starting games. I think Sap gets my vote.

[MarkGrace]

I get that I'm being negative and preemptive in dismissing Heyward but as you pointed out, his regression is troubling. True, Sloan seems to have a way of making that mental instability in young players grow into full blown Eyore-itis but his lateral motion (yes I understand Horny and Stock weren't lateral guys) as well as his ability to just play basketball appears wanting.

I think it still remains to be seen how his career will end up but he better learn quickly how to do 1 thing really well or he won't get a shot to show that he can do a few things at all.

I guess this is where we differ. He definitely needs to learn to do some things well, and he's definitely struggling in a major way, but I'm not worried about the "quickly" part.

[Blueintheface]

Was Jeremy Evans the 9th overall pick?

[Sizzle]

Another strong start by the rookie. Wow. Just wow.

I didn't think Evans looked that bad.

[Sizzle]

I thought CJ was pulling up on that shot for sure. I like how excited all the guys seemed to be for Evans. I just wish they could get Hayward some Similar opportunities.

[MarkGrace]

That quarter went ugly after it looked like we'd jump out to a decent lead.

We should handle them in the second half.