BYU Hoops 2013-2014

[KillerDog]

You are both right and both wrong. KD is correct in that you cannot exclude outliers. wapiti is correct in that Haws brings up the average up much more than most of the players shooting over 85% for the season. And the reason for that is the volume [B] and[B] the percentage. When you look at those top 100 FT shooters, only 2 have more than 200 attempts, and the majority are around 100-110 attempts.

Haws is 184-211 for 87.2%
BYU is 592-863 for 68.6%
BYU w/o Haws 408-652 for 62.6%

That equates to a 6% drop in team percentage by removing Haws

If you take the player in the top 10 percentage wise, who has the most attempts you have:

Josh Greene for CS-Northridge

Greene is 123-135 for 91.1%
CS-N is 563-729 for 77.3%
CS-N w/o Greene is 440-594 for 74.1%

For a drop of on 3.2% by removing Greene.

So in summary, Haws contributes heavily to BYU's team percentage more so because he has shoot nearly 25% of all of the FT's for his team.

Great analysis. What about a guy like McDermott? How much does he move the needle?

[wapiti]

Great analysis. What about a guy like McDermott? How much does he move the needle?

McDermott moves his teams percentage from 69% to 75%. He shoots about the same percentage of his teams free throws as Haws does. Makes sense because he is a Haws caliber player.

[Topper]

McDermott moves his teams percentage from 69% to 75%. He shoots about the same percentage of his teams free throws as Haws does. Makes sense because he is a Haws caliber player.

Great analysis.

Without Haws, BYU is shooting below what is reasonable to expect as a team. Even with Haws, it is not unreasonable to expect more from KC or Carlino.

[Topper]

KD:

What do you believe is a reasonable percentage to expect from a guard? 75% to 80%?
From a forward/center? 65 to 70? I know there are some forwards and even centers who are more proficient but those are rare.

[KillerDog]

KD:

What do you believe is a reasonable percentage to expect from a guard? 75% to 80%?
From a forward/center? 65 to 70? I know there are some forwards and even centers who are more proficient but those are rare.

I think FTs rarely change games and are focused on by fans because they are visible, like rebounding. If a team shoots between 65 and 70 percent, shoot FTs in practice. If they shoot above 70%, encourage the poor shooters to shoot on their own. I believe the disparity between bigs and wings is a result of how few shots bigs take where they are square and below the rim and how much more common it is for wings. I don't have expectations for individuals, I have expectations for teams. BYU should shoot FTs in practice but they need to spend more time practicing driving the ball successfully and extending their zone.

[wapiti]

I think FTs rarely change games and are focused on by fans because they are visible, like rebounding. If a team shoots between 65 and 70 percent, shoot FTs in practice. If they shoot above 70%, encourage the poor shooters to shoot on their own. I believe the disparity between bigs and wings is a result of how few shots bigs take where they are square and below the rim and how much more common it is for wings. I don't have expectations for individuals, I have expectations for teams. BYU should shoot FTs in practice but they need to spend more time practicing driving the ball successfully and extending their zone.

Regarding "driving the ball successfully", is it just me or is this team very poor at the "drive and kick". It seems like too many drives end in a wild shot when there should be an open shooter on the wing due to the penetration.

[Jarid in Cedar]

I think FTs rarely change games and are focused on by fans because they are visible, like rebounding. If a team shoots between 65 and 70 percent, shoot FTs in practice. If they shoot above 70%, encourage the poor shooters to shoot on their own. I believe the disparity between bigs and wings is a result of how few shots bigs take where they are square and below the rim and how much more common it is for wings. I don't have expectations for individuals, I have expectations for teams. BYU should shoot FTs in practice but they need to spend more time practicing driving the ball successfully and extending their zone.

Free throws matter most at end of game situations. When a team is fouling you to get back in the game, can you hit enough of them to stymie any comeback attempt.

[The_Douger]

Free throws matter most at end of game situations. When a team is fouling you to get back in the game, can you hit enough of them to stymie any comeback attempt.

That's how I think about it.

I think BYU has lost a few games this year because of that.

[KillerDog]

Regarding "driving the ball successfully", is it just me or is this team very poor at the "drive and kick". It seems like too many drives end in a wild shot when there should be an open shooter on the wing due to the penetration.

Their ability to drive and kick as well as drive and dump is sorely lacking. Once people learned how to contest our wing's penetration, our ability to break down a D off the bounce has gone in the shitter.

[KillerDog]

That's how I think about it.

I think BYU has lost a few games this year because of that.

I disagree. We have lost games because of an unwillingness or inability to control tempo with Matt on the floor.

[Blueintheface]

I disagree. We have lost games because of an unwillingness or inability to control tempo with Matt on the floor.

Can't ignore FTs though. They need to get it into Haws hands at the end of games and he is not getting the ball. While you can't exclude his excellent numbers from the team calculation you can't exclude his inability (often made very difficult by double teams on inbounds plays) to get the ball so other guys aren't put in those situations. I think at least lately coach has realized that Dobey needs to be on the floor as a second option on the offensive end late in games.

As to team tempo with Matt on the floor, this would be mitigated somewhat by not having our starting bigs in foul trouble IMO. Eric gets out well while Austin gets the defensive rebound and into Matt's hands quickly. Sharp is often off of his feet and Worthington has really nice hair.

[Jacob]

Win this, finish second in league and go to finals in WCC tourney and BYU is likely to get into the Tourney. Very important game. Perhaps BYU slides in otherwise, but with a win here, it is much easier.

All that seems less likely than just winning the Tournament. Either way, you have to beat Gonzaga just once.

[Pelado]

Their ability to drive and kick as well as drive and dump is sorely lacking. Once people learned how to contest our wing's penetration, our ability to break down a D off the bounce has gone in the shitter.

Unfortunately, when they have done the "kick" part, it's usually to a wide open non-shooter on the perimeter. Very rarely do the kick outs result in our best 3-point shooters getting wide open shots.

[wapiti]

Haven't most of our losses this year been of the "fall behind early and can't get enough stops to catch up" variety? At least the bad conference losses have been that way. FT shooting has been a frustration because we say "we missed 12 FT in a 4 point loss".

I just checked the play by play in some of our close losses to see how FT shooting down the stretch affected the outcome.

Iowa State: Winder missed the tying FT against Iowa State with 25 seconds left but then ISU missed the front-end of a one-and-one and we got a possession to try and take the lead. We failed to score. Had we made the FT, ISU would have had the ball in a tie game with the shot clock turned off.

Oregon: Austin missed a FT with 1:21 left. The game ended up in OT. 1:21 is long enough that one made FT could have changed strategy and several possessions. Collinsworth missed the tying FT in OT with 27 seconds left. Oregon scored on the next possession as we went for a steal. That FT would have totally changed the last 27 seconds but who knows whether the outcome would have changed. Oregon still had the advantage with the ball, tie game, and the shot clock turned off.

Portland: FT shooting did not affect the end of regulation. Portland missed what would have been a clinching FT in the last 30 seconds of the first OT. Collinsworth went 2-4 in the last 2 minutes of the 2nd OT. The last miss coming with 47 seconds left. He should not have had the ball in his hands at that point in the game.

The only game where clutch free throw shooting definitely would have changed the outcome in our favor is the Portland game. But even that opportunity was only afforded us after Portland failed at the stripe in the first OT. The ISU and Oregon game situations still favored the opponent or overtime had we made the clutch free throws.

[TripletDaddy]

Big Game in the Big Mac. Basically plan on getting nothing done today other than think about this game and also eat lunch.

White out, so please dress accordingly. No temple clothing, please.