Bubble Watch 2012

[Omaha 680]

Northwestern about to fall off the bubble

Kind of sucks for them because they've never been to the tourney EVER.

Southern Miss barely won in the first round of the CUSA tourney. A loss would have been very good for BYU.

NC State beat BC, but probably need to do more.

Other bubble teams to watch tonight: Texas, Miami, South Florida

[Pelado]

For as awful as EastSPN and CUF have wanted everyone to believe the P12 is this year, 6 teams with 20 wins. Oregon State and UCLA with 19 and a chance to get to 20 still alive.

Nobody would love to see Washington hosed more than me, but IMO there should be no question that the P12 champion gets into the dance.

That's fine with me, but by the objective measures, BYU should get in first:

Better overall record
Better RPI
Better top 25 record
Better top 50 record
Better top 100 record
Better record against common opponents

If Washington is in, then BYU is definitely in.

[FountainofUte]

The reason the PAC is rating higher in Sagarin is not because the top three teams are better, it's because after the PAC's top three, the rest are not as uniformily bad as in the WCC (with the exception of Utah, of course).

PAC: http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_pac12_Men.html
Average RPI of top three: 46
Average RPI of the rest: 166

WCC: http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_wcc_Men.html
Average RPI of top three: 32
Average RPI of the rest: 211

Incidentally, even with their first place finish in the PAC, Washington still has a worse RPI than BYU as well as fewer quality wins and a worse record against common opponents.

That's all fine and well, but if you are first place in your conference, you should get in over 3rd place in a worse conference. Especially since the committee tends to give more weight to the latter games in the season, i.e. the conference games.

[Maximus]

For as awful as EastSPN and CUF have wanted everyone to believe the P12 is this year, 6 teams with 20 wins. Oregon State and UCLA with 19 and a chance to get to 20 still alive.

Nobody would love to see Washington hosed more than me, but IMO there should be no question that the P12 champion gets into the dance.

Who did those teams beat OOC?

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

Who did those teams beat OOC?

Some of the teams they played, lost to others. Similar to everyone else except Syracuse and Murray State.

[The Rambam]

BYU 11 6 Florida in the first round. Awesome.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

[Omaha 680]

South Florida up 3 on ND late. Miami rolling on GT. Texas up 4 with under 30 second left.

[Omaha 680]

The end of this USF/ND game is a comedy of errors.

Edit: South Florida blows it. Texas wins.

[Pelado]

That's all fine and well, but if you are first place in your conference, you should get in over 3rd place in a worse conference. Especially since the committee tends to give more weight to the latter games in the season, i.e. the conference games.

Is this your first year watching March Madness? The selection committee doesn't pick conferences, they pick teams. They look at how you scheduled and how you performed against the schedule. As previously illustrated, by most any objective measure, BYU did better than Washington against a comparable schedule.

If it comes down to an either/or, BYU should get the berth.

[FountainofUte]

Is this your first year watching March Madness? The selection committee doesn't pick conferences, they pick teams. They look at how you scheduled and how you performed against the schedule. As previously illustrated, by most any objective measure, BYU did better than Washington against a comparable schedule.

If it comes down to an either/or, BYU should get the berth.

So you've never heard of the "BCS-ification" of the NCAA tournament? No one will officially admit it exists, but everyone knows it does. I'm not saying it's right, but it's pretty well accepted truth by this point.

When both our schools were in the MWC, if I had asked you back then if an unranked third-place team in the WCC that went 1-4 against the top two conference foes gets in over the 1st place PAC team that flamed in its conference tourney, do you really think you'd tell me with a straight face that the WCC team gets the nod? I'll go one step further, would you have thought back then that the third place WCC team gets in over the MWC champ that flamed out in the conf tournament? Even that is a stretch.

Now, I know things are different today. The WCC is stronger with you guys in it. You raised its profile this year. It will likely get three teams in. The PAC, which usually is hanging around in the #3-6 range in strength of conference dipped to #8. Not good by their own standards. But come on. It's not like BYU's 47 RPI is a slam dunk. BYU's 5-6 vs. the top 100 isn't leagues better than UW's 4-8. That's one more win with one less try. Better? Yes. But BYU's fighting a bias here. Cite all the cherry-picked criteria you want where BYU beats UW -- and there are many -- but we both know more goes into the decision, and it's not ALL objective. The committee doesn't have to explain themselves or "show their work."

What is working for you, I think, is that the national media wants to see the PAC get its comeuppance for such a crap year. Maybe UW is the school that they make an example out of. They certainly have it coming if they do.

You think I'm weighing the value of the PAC too heavily. I think you're preaching "individual accomplishment" a little too hard when compared to who they traditionally let in from the "power conferences." Both BYU and UW are on the bubble. Neither one has *that* impressive of a body of work. If it comes down to just those two, they take the PAC champ -- whether it's right or wrong. You and I both know that.

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

Pop. That sucked.

[Donuthole]

Pop. That sucked.

That didn't help BYU's chances at all, as Oregon will no longer be a top 50 RPI win.

[Pelado]

So you've never heard of the "BCS-ification" of the NCAA tournament? No one will officially admit it exists, but everyone knows it does. I'm not saying it's right, but it's pretty well accepted truth by this point.

When both our schools were in the MWC, if I had asked you back then if an unranked third-place team in the WCC that went 1-4 against the top two conference foes gets in over the 1st place PAC team that flamed in its conference tourney, do you really think you'd tell me with a straight face that the WCC team gets the nod? I'll go one step further, would you have thought back then that the third place WCC team gets in over the MWC champ that flamed out in the conf tournament? Even that is a stretch.

Now, I know things are different today. The WCC is stronger with you guys in it. You raised its profile this year. It will likely get three teams in. The PAC, which usually is hanging around in the #3-6 range in strength of conference dipped to #8. Not good by their own standards. But come on. It's not like BYU's 47 RPI is a slam dunk. BYU's 5-6 vs. the top 100 isn't leagues better than UW's 4-8. That's one more win with one less try. Better? Yes. But BYU's fighting a bias here. Cite all the cherry-picked criteria you want where BYU beats UW -- and there are many -- but we both know more goes into the decision, and it's not ALL objective. The committee doesn't have to explain themselves or "show their work."

What is working for you, I think, is that the national media wants to see the PAC get its comeuppance for such a crap year. Maybe UW is the school that they make an example out of. They certainly have it coming if they do.

You think I'm weighing the value of the PAC too heavily. I think you're preaching "individual accomplishment" a little too hard when compared to who they traditionally let in from the "power conferences." Both BYU and UW are on the bubble. Neither one has *that* impressive of a body of work. If it comes down to just those two, they take the PAC champ -- whether it's right or wrong. You and I both know that.

Cherry-picked? Where is all the objective criteria that supports Washington over BYU? The best you can do is say that BYU's case isn't much better than Washington's. I agree. There's not much of a difference. What difference there is, though, leans in BYU's favor.

It is certainly possible that Washington will get in before and/or be seeded higher than BYU. It would not be because of the stated criteria of the selection committee.

[Pelado]

More cherry-picked data for you:

Best BYU wins by RPI:

Best Washington wins by RPI:

All of BYU's best wins are rated better than all but one of Washington's best wins. Washington's best win was at home against Oregon (then they lost to them on the road). BYU beat Oregon at a semi-neutral site.

[Hsaru]

More cherry-picked data for you:

Best BYU wins by RPI:

Best Washington wins by RPI:

All of BYU's best wins are rated better than all but one of Washington's best wins. Washington's best win was at home against Oregon (then they lost to them on the road). BYU beat Oregon at a semi-neutral site.

One win in the top 80? What a joke conference "champion".