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Originally posted by BlueK
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i compared BYU to some teams ranked close to them on the NET and found something interesting that I pretty much already believed. The matrix at the end of the season has been pretty accurate in predicting BYU's actual seeding the last several times they've made the tournament. But one thing frequently brought up by fans is something I call the "BYU discount." But I would argue that those who put out the bracket projections that the matrix compiles, conciously or not, already bake in that discount, which is why the matrix usually hits our seed pretty much right on. The last time BYU truly got hosed was with the 12 seeds in 2003 and 2004 (which predates the existence of the matrix). The one in 2003 came with the double whammy of the committee even forgetting that BYU doesn't play on Sunday.
That said, here is what I think is some decent evidence that the BYU discount is already baked into the bracket projections.
You are probably all familiar with the quad system the committee has been using the last few years and that the quads are defined by where teams rank in the NET which replaced the RPI a few years ago.
Anyway this is where I'm noticing the BYU discount coming into play in these projections:
The NET in and of itself isn't so important for an individual team; What the committee bases almost everything on is a team's record against the 4 quads. There are a few other considerations such as road record, and of course, SOS, especially outside the conference. A team that plays a ton of games in Q4 doesn't benefit at all even if they win all of them. But also, not being afraid to play tough competition is a plus but you do have to win some of them. Going 0-8 against Q1 isn't really a benefit to that team either even if they played a lot of good teams. I think overall it's fair in that the NET is the same for everyone as are the quad definitions.
Currently BYU is ranked #24 in the NET. Here are all the teams ranked close to them right now along with their records against the 4 quads and current seeding in the matrix:
20.Iowa - 0-4, 4-1, 3-0, 7-0; 8 seed
21. Wisconsin - 5-2, 5-1, 1-0, 4-0; 3 seed
22. USC - 2-0, 4-2, 6-0, 5-0; 6 seed
23. Ohio State - 3-4, 1-0, 5-0, 3-0; 5 seed
24. BYU - 3-2, 5-2, 2-0, 5-0; 7seed
25. Alabama - 5-4, 1-1, 7-2, 0-0; 5 seed
26. Colorado State - 3-1, 1-0, 6-0, 5-0; 7 seed
27. Loyola-Chicago - 1-2, 2-1, 4-0, 7-0, 8 seed
28;St. Marys - 1-4, 3-0, 3-0, 7-0; 9 seed
Conclusion, all factors considered, BYU's numbers are probably most comparable to Ohio State's and Alabama's, yet seeded two spots lower. And I'm being generous to osu and bama in saying that. 3-4 is not really better than 3-2. A q1 and q2 combined record of 4-4 is definitely not better than 8-4. Also BYU has played 12 teams out of 19 games against Q1 or Q2. Ohio State of the Big Ten has to this point played only half their games against the top two tiers. And Alabama is even worse in that regard, plus has two bad losses. I would say Iowa's numbers are clearly not as good as BYU's but they're just barely below in their projected seeding. And BYU should be a couple of spots above CSU and Loyola, IMO. CSU to their credit has a nice 3-1 record against Q1 just little better than BYU's 3-2, but the rest of the line is lopsidedly better for BYU due to a much stronger schedule.
So there you go, I think it's decent evidence that the BYU discount is pretty consistently applied in the projections, which is why I don't apply it again to what the matrix says and why it's been fairly accurate since its existence in predicting what the committee gives us. That said, I'm ok if the season ends and we have a 7 seed. But he next few games are a chance for BYU to really solidify and improve its spot starting with a q2 opportunity tomorrow night.
http://bracketmatrix.com/
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-nitty
That said, here is what I think is some decent evidence that the BYU discount is already baked into the bracket projections.
You are probably all familiar with the quad system the committee has been using the last few years and that the quads are defined by where teams rank in the NET which replaced the RPI a few years ago.
Anyway this is where I'm noticing the BYU discount coming into play in these projections:
The NET in and of itself isn't so important for an individual team; What the committee bases almost everything on is a team's record against the 4 quads. There are a few other considerations such as road record, and of course, SOS, especially outside the conference. A team that plays a ton of games in Q4 doesn't benefit at all even if they win all of them. But also, not being afraid to play tough competition is a plus but you do have to win some of them. Going 0-8 against Q1 isn't really a benefit to that team either even if they played a lot of good teams. I think overall it's fair in that the NET is the same for everyone as are the quad definitions.
Currently BYU is ranked #24 in the NET. Here are all the teams ranked close to them right now along with their records against the 4 quads and current seeding in the matrix:
20.Iowa - 0-4, 4-1, 3-0, 7-0; 8 seed
21. Wisconsin - 5-2, 5-1, 1-0, 4-0; 3 seed
22. USC - 2-0, 4-2, 6-0, 5-0; 6 seed
23. Ohio State - 3-4, 1-0, 5-0, 3-0; 5 seed
24. BYU - 3-2, 5-2, 2-0, 5-0; 7seed
25. Alabama - 5-4, 1-1, 7-2, 0-0; 5 seed
26. Colorado State - 3-1, 1-0, 6-0, 5-0; 7 seed
27. Loyola-Chicago - 1-2, 2-1, 4-0, 7-0, 8 seed
28;St. Marys - 1-4, 3-0, 3-0, 7-0; 9 seed
Conclusion, all factors considered, BYU's numbers are probably most comparable to Ohio State's and Alabama's, yet seeded two spots lower. And I'm being generous to osu and bama in saying that. 3-4 is not really better than 3-2. A q1 and q2 combined record of 4-4 is definitely not better than 8-4. Also BYU has played 12 teams out of 19 games against Q1 or Q2. Ohio State of the Big Ten has to this point played only half their games against the top two tiers. And Alabama is even worse in that regard, plus has two bad losses. I would say Iowa's numbers are clearly not as good as BYU's but they're just barely below in their projected seeding. And BYU should be a couple of spots above CSU and Loyola, IMO. CSU to their credit has a nice 3-1 record against Q1 just little better than BYU's 3-2, but the rest of the line is lopsidedly better for BYU due to a much stronger schedule.
So there you go, I think it's decent evidence that the BYU discount is pretty consistently applied in the projections, which is why I don't apply it again to what the matrix says and why it's been fairly accurate since its existence in predicting what the committee gives us. That said, I'm ok if the season ends and we have a 7 seed. But he next few games are a chance for BYU to really solidify and improve its spot starting with a q2 opportunity tomorrow night.
http://bracketmatrix.com/
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-nitty
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