2021-2022 basketball season

[BlueK]

BYU is projected as a middle of the bracket team right now. There hasn't been enough time yet for the brackets to react to their adding a quad 1 win over USF, so I think they move up a few places this week.

http://bracketmatrix.com/

[Donuthole]

Sadly, I fell asleep sometime in the 3rd quarter when the Cougs were down by 8. I woke up and checked the box score and became even more sad knowing f that I couldn’t catch the replay on cbs sports.

:headscratch:

[Jeff Lebowski]

Sadly, I fell asleep sometime in the 3rd quarter when the Cougs were down by 8. I woke up and checked the box score and became even more sad knowing f that I couldn’t catch the replay on cbs sports.

Yeah, I am also confused. Why can't you watch it on replay?

[Jeff Lebowski]

Keep your chin up. Next up is Arizona, USC, and UCLA!

Whoops. I was wrong. Right in the middle of those three teams is 5-9 ASU. But Utah lost to them too.

Dang it, they might be so awful that Craig Smith will be a one-and-done coach. Give the guy a few years to see what he can do!

[BlueK]

Whoops. I was wrong. Right in the middle of those three teams is 5-9 ASU. But Utah lost to them too.

Dang it, they might be so awful that Craig Smith will be a one-and-done coach. Give the guy a few years to see what he can do!

Funny, but on CB someone said something about Utah's schedule having been harder than BYU's. Well, actually not, at least not to this point using the NET. BYU has played 11 quad 1 or 2 teams, Utah has played 7. The Utes' real problem is having 4 quad 3 losses though.

[Green Monstah]

:headscratch:

Second half.

[Green Monstah]

Yeah, I am also confused. Why can't you watch it on replay?

CBS sports doesn’t have on demand.

[Jeff Lebowski]

CBS sports doesn’t have on demand.

You didn’t DVR it?

[Green Monstah]

You didn’t DVR it?

I have Hulu live, and my subscription doesn’t include dvr. I may have done learnt my lesson though.

[Pelado]

BYU's current NET rating is 27 and current kenpom rating is 21. That win against USF is currently BYU's only Quad 1 win of the season. They have a pretty respectable resume so far:

1-1 vs Quad 1 - remaining Q1 games - 1 Gonzaga, at 37 Saint Mary's
6-3 vs Quad 2 - remaining Q2 games - at 88 Santa Clara, 35 San Francisco
3-0 vs Quad 3 - remaining Q3 games - at 143 Loyola Marymount, 143 Loyola Marymount
3-0 vs Quad 4 - remaining Q4 games - 193 San Diego, 234 Portland, at 304 Pacific, at 282 Pepperdine, 282 Pepperdine
2-0 vs Non-D1

This Thursday's game against San Diego was originally scheduled to be on CBS Sports but that has changed. CBSS has switched to a rescheduled Gonzaga game, so Thursday's game will be on BYUtv at 7 pm MT. So set your DVRs for BYUtv instead of CBS Sports (except for Green Monstah, of course). Or, if you're like me, just wait sufficient time for the broadcast to end and then watch the game through the BYUtv app on Roku, skipping over the commercials.

[Pelado]

Speaking of that game against San Diego on Thursday, the Toreros' best win so far this season is at 133 Nevada. They have managed multiple losses in every quadrant except Quad 4, where they've only lost a single game:

Q1: at 54 Fresno State by 20 points, at 35 San Francisco by 15 points
Q2: at 129 California by 5 points, at 123 UNLV by 23 points
Q3: 151 Cal State Fullerton by 2 points, 134 South Alabama by 1 point
Q4: 300 CSUN by 4 points

I haven't seen San Diego play so far this season and don't know their strengths or weaknesses.

[Joe Public]

Atiki with the blatant forearm shiver to the USD player's head. Lol.

[BlueK]

Latest bracket matrix has BYU as a 7 seed. The profile is looking good with 3-2 record vs. Q1 and 5-2 vs. Q2. Santa Clara is next. They are #82 on the NET so it's another Q2 game, followed by Pacific then USF and Gonzaga in Provo. BYU is virtually a lock for the NCAAs if they do well in this next stretch. Beating Gonz not required for that but it would be great obviously.

[BlueK]

i compared BYU to some teams ranked close to them on the NET and found something interesting that I pretty much already believed. The matrix at the end of the season has been pretty accurate in predicting BYU's actual seeding the last several times they've made the tournament. But one thing frequently brought up by fans is something I call the "BYU discount." But I would argue that those who put out the bracket projections that the matrix compiles, conciously or not, already bake in that discount, which is why the matrix usually hits our seed pretty much right on. The last time BYU truly got hosed was with the 12 seeds in 2003 and 2004 (which predates the existence of the matrix). The one in 2003 came with the double whammy of the committee even forgetting that BYU doesn't play on Sunday.

That said, here is what I think is some decent evidence that the BYU discount is already baked into the bracket projections.

You are probably all familiar with the quad system the committee has been using the last few years and that the quads are defined by where teams rank in the NET which replaced the RPI a few years ago.

Anyway this is where I'm noticing the BYU discount coming into play in these projections:

The NET in and of itself isn't so important for an individual team; What the committee bases almost everything on is a team's record against the 4 quads. There are a few other considerations such as road record, and of course, SOS, especially outside the conference. A team that plays a ton of games in Q4 doesn't benefit at all even if they win all of them. But also, not being afraid to play tough competition is a plus but you do have to win some of them. Going 0-8 against Q1 isn't really a benefit to that team either even if they played a lot of good teams. I think overall it's fair in that the NET is the same for everyone as are the quad definitions.

Currently BYU is ranked #24 in the NET. Here are all the teams ranked close to them right now along with their records against the 4 quads and current seeding in the matrix:

20.Iowa - 0-4, 4-1, 3-0, 7-0; 8 seed
21. Wisconsin - 5-2, 5-1, 1-0, 4-0; 3 seed
22. USC - 2-0, 4-2, 6-0, 5-0; 6 seed
23. Ohio State - 3-4, 1-0, 5-0, 3-0; 5 seed
24. BYU - 3-2, 5-2, 2-0, 5-0; 7seed
25. Alabama - 5-4, 1-1, 7-2, 0-0; 5 seed
26. Colorado State - 3-1, 1-0, 6-0, 5-0; 7 seed
27. Loyola-Chicago - 1-2, 2-1, 4-0, 7-0, 8 seed
28;St. Marys - 1-4, 3-0, 3-0, 7-0; 9 seed

Conclusion, all factors considered, BYU's numbers are probably most comparable to Ohio State's and Alabama's, yet seeded two spots lower. And I'm being generous to osu and bama in saying that. 3-4 is not really better than 3-2. A q1 and q2 combined record of 4-4 is definitely not better than 8-4. Also BYU has played 12 teams out of 19 games against Q1 or Q2. Ohio State of the Big Ten has to this point played only half their games against the top two tiers. And Alabama is even worse in that regard, plus has two bad losses. I would say Iowa's numbers are clearly not as good as BYU's but they're just barely below in their projected seeding. And BYU should be a couple of spots above CSU and Loyola, IMO. CSU to their credit has a nice 3-1 record against Q1 just little better than BYU's 3-2, but the rest of the line is lopsidedly better for BYU due to a much stronger schedule.

So there you go, I think it's decent evidence that the BYU discount is pretty consistently applied in the projections, which is why I don't apply it again to what the matrix says and why it's been fairly accurate since its existence in predicting what the committee gives us. That said, I'm ok if the season ends and we have a 7 seed. But he next few games are a chance for BYU to really solidify and improve its spot starting with a q2 opportunity tomorrow night.

http://bracketmatrix.com/

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-nitty

[BigPiney]

Very interesting, thanks for putting that together.