2020 General Presidential Election Thread

[UVACoug]

OK ... I got a little nerdy. This is based on NYTimes estimate of outstanding votes:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...lection_recirc

Here are the margins that each candidate would have to win to change the current result in each of the non-called states:

Pennsylvania: Biden 67.84% of remaining vote

Wisconsin: Biden 59.15% of remaining vote

Michigan: Biden 59.39% of remaining vote

Georgia: Biden 62.46% of remaining vote

North Carolina: Biden 63.23% of remaining vote

Arizona: Trump 61.26% of remaining vote

[Commando]

OK ... I got a little nerdy. This is based on NYTimes estimate of outstanding votes:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...lection_recirc

Here are the margins that each candidate would have to win to change the current result in each of the non-called states:

Pennsylvania: Biden 67.84% of remaining vote

Wisconsin: Biden 59.15% of remaining vote

Michigan: Biden 59.39% of remaining vote

Georgia: Biden 62.46% of remaining vote

North Carolina: Biden 63.23% of remaining vote

Arizona: Trump 61.26% of remaining vote

AP already called AZ for Biden. That's a done deal. The rest of those are completely doable seeing as how Biden supporters are getting the lion's share of mail-in ballots.

Michigan in particular looks good, but I think we get both WI and MI. GA is still in play, too. They resume counting in the morning.

[UVACoug]

AP already called AZ for Biden. That's a done deal. The rest of those are completely doable seeing as how Biden supporters are getting the lion's share of mail-in ballots.

Michigan in particular looks good, but I think we get both WI and MI. GA is still in play, too. They resume counting in the morning.

Definitely doable. PA looks the most out of reach. Trump can lose WI and MI and still win though if he gets PA, GA, and NC. Unless ME-2 goes to Biden, in which case it would be a tie.

[Commando]

Definitely doable. PA looks the most out of reach. Trump can lose WI and MI and still win though if he gets PA, GA, and NC. Unless ME-2 goes to Biden, in which case it would be a tie.

No he can't. Are you forgetting Nevada or Nebraska's district 2?

[UVACoug]

No he can't. Are you forgetting Nevada or Nebraska's district 2?

Am I missing something?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/#WA:0,OR:0,CA:0,NV:0,AZ:0,NM:0,CO:0,UT:1,ID:1,MT:1,WY:1,ND:1,SD:1,NE:1,KS:1,OK:1,DC:0,MN:0,IA:1,TX:1,LA:1,AR:1,MO:1,MS:1,AL:1,FL:1,TN:1,KY:1,IN:1,WV:1,OH:1,SC:1,IL:0,VA:0,AK:1,HI:0,NY:0,VT:0,CT:0,MA:0,RI:0,NH:0,ME:1,MD:0,DE:0,NJ:0,N3:1,N1:1,N2:0,M1:0,WI:0,PA:1,NC:1,MI:0,GA:1,M2:0

Edit: Oops ... I had Maine red instead of blue.

[Commando]

Only 9% uncounted in WI, with Trump up by 4 points. Doesn't look good to me. Am I missing something?

And there you have it. Biden up after mail-in ballots counted in Milwaukee County. He's up 11k and precious few precincts left to count-- mostly urban areas of Kenosha and Green Bay as opposed to countywide votes.

[Commando]

And now Trump's lead in Michigan is also vanishing. Wayne County has the most votes left to count and they'll add another 250k before this is over... Biden's only down 70k as I type this. Also, mail-in votes coming in from Oakland County and Lansing as well.

[Now who’s the dean?]

https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1323949799738085378?s=21

[Now who’s the dean?]

https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1323963587686289408?s=21

[Now who’s the dean?]

2020 General Presidential Election Thread

https://twitter.com/decisiondeskhq/status/1323963582850207745?s=21

[All-American]

2020 General Presidential Election Thread

Good morning everyone.

To sum up where we are on the morning after, the states still in play are Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. (some say Arizona too, but it looks all but over there. Wisconsin still has voted left but Biden has taken the lead and appears unlikely to lose it.)

Trump needs to hold his current lead in each of those four. He probably won’t hold Michigan.

Republicans do appear poised to hold the senate.

So, Biden president, republican senate. As good an outcome as could have been hoped for I think, except that the close margins will mean we see some legal battles in the next few weeks. The lack of clear repudiation is also a little disappointing, and republicans will try to delegitimize on their way out the door, sadly. But it also means no clear democratic mandate, for what it’s worth.

Some telling of the story may include that the election swung on Arizona’s revolt. How fitting that Trump loses because he was a total jerk to McCain and Mormons.

[Northwestcoug]

Not going away easily, you mean. He's not going to go violently.

You’re right. I think. But I seriously worry about some of his crazed supporters who believe his unhinged ramblings.

The map is looking better for Biden. With current MI an WI results (and with expected AZ and NV wins), PN may become irrelevant.

Not the blowout the GOP needs. But I just saw that he’s already surpassed Obama’s 2008 vote total. There is some righteous anger out there. So maybe the country is governable after all.

[Northwestcoug]

Nevada not updating their mail in ballot results until tomorrow.

[Moliere]

270 to 268 looking like a pretty good possibility. I’d be fine with that and with the GOP keeping the senate. Would hav eoreferred he lose in a landslide but a win is a win.

[All-American]

Biden just took the lead in Michigan.