At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[Solon]

Aw hell. Joe Diffie has died of COVID.
I hope his gravestone has an epitaph written in John Deere green.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/us/joe-diffie-coronavirus-death-trnd/index.html

So bummed about that.


IMO, this pandemic is serving up some hefty portions of humble-pie to our hubristic society.
We can't tell the future; we don't have all of the information; we can't have the answers immediately; we need to respect the aw(e)ful power of Nature. We are not in charge.

Of course humanity needs to continue to struggle heroically to save lives and maintain society, but I hope we take pause to recognize how fragile life really is, how small we really are. To paraphrase Aeschylus: when all is well, a mere shadow can ruin it like a wet sponge blotting out a drawing.

</>needle-neck wankering<>

[Jeff Lebowski]

We aren't quibbling over what an article said, you dolt. These are the exact words used by the UK's top epidemiologist.

SU, if you could just insult a few more posters on this here obscure sports board I think you will lick this pesky virus and save the world. The stakes are huge.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Aw hell. Joe Diffie has died of COVID.
I hope his gravestone has an epitaph written in John Deere green.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/us/joe-diffie-coronavirus-death-trnd/index.html

So bummed about that.


IMO, this pandemic is serving up some hefty portions of humble-pie to our hubristic society.
We can't tell the future; we don't have all of the information; we can't have the answers immediately; we need to respect the aw(e)ful power of Nature. We are not in charge.

Of course humanity needs to continue to struggle heroically to save lives and maintain society, but I hope we take pause to recognize how fragile life really is, how small we really are. To paraphrase Aeschylus: when all is well, a mere shadow can ruin it like a wet sponge blotting out a drawing.

</>needle-neck wandering<>

Well said. Remarkable just how fragile everything is. We are going to come out of this fundamentally changed.

[Moliere]

One of the more frustrating parts of this whole thing is the lack of data. There is very little good data right now to make any sort of a precise projection on infections/death rate/etc. Even more frustrating are the people who know something about stats, which makes them think they know everything about infectious disease stats. Paul Krugman is definitely one of those as evidenced by this tweet:

Embedded Tweet

I'm no expert, but I know enough to realize that 100 million cases by the end of March is very unlikely even if we just let the virus run rampant throughout the US.

Nate Silver is probably the best follow when it comes to stats as we tries to parse through the data and seems to always end with "well, tbh, we really don't know since the data isn't any good"

[Omaha 680]

One of the more frustrating parts of this whole thing is the lack of data. There is very little good data right now to make any sort of a precise projection on infections/death rate/etc. Even more frustrating are the people who know something about stats, which makes them think they know everything about infectious disease stats. Paul Krugman is definitely one of those as evidenced by this tweet:

Embedded Tweet

I'm no expert, but I know enough to realize that 100 million cases by the end of March is very unlikely even if we just let the virus run rampant throughout the US.

Nate Silver is probably the best follow when it comes to stats as we tries to parse through the data and seems to always end with "well, tbh, we really don't know since the data isn't any good"

LOL @ Krugman. Yeah I'm sure Fauci didnt take into account the possibility of exponential growth when he put his estimate out there. Someone should explain that to him!

[Northwestcoug]

Well said. Remarkable just how fragile everything is. We are going to come out of this fundamentally changed.

I hope so. At least the right and needed changes.

[jay santos]

One of the more frustrating parts of this whole thing is the lack of data. There is very little good data right now to make any sort of a precise projection on infections/death rate/etc. Even more frustrating are the people who know something about stats, which makes them think they know everything about infectious disease stats. Paul Krugman is definitely one of those as evidenced by this tweet:

Embedded Tweet

I'm no expert, but I know enough to realize that 100 million cases by the end of March is very unlikely even if we just let the virus run rampant throughout the US.

Nate Silver is probably the best follow when it comes to stats as we tries to parse through the data and seems to always end with "well, tbh, we really don't know since the data isn't any good"

Fauci didn't explain all the assumptions when he says 100k deaths and millions of cases. It doesn't look like we're on that path when we compare to other countries that are further along than us.

[Walter Sobchak]

Well said. Remarkable just how fragile everything is. We are going to come out of this fundamentally changed.

I hope so. At least the right and needed changes.

I'm curious. List one or more of these fundamental changes. TIA.

[jay santos]

I'm curious. List one or more of these fundamental changes. TIA.

From now on, when something bad happens, we will be quicker to blame the opposing political party. That should improve our country a lot.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

One of the more frustrating parts of this whole thing is the lack of data. There is very little good data right now to make any sort of a precise projection on infections/death rate/etc. Even more frustrating are the people who know something about stats, which makes them think they know everything about infectious disease stats. Paul Krugman is definitely one of those as evidenced by this tweet:

Embedded Tweet

I'm no expert, but I know enough to realize that 100 million cases by the end of March is very unlikely even if we just let the virus run rampant throughout the US.

Nate Silver is probably the best follow when it comes to stats as we tries to parse through the data and seems to always end with "well, tbh, we really don't know since the data isn't any good"

Last week, NYC, Westchester, Nassau and Suffolk accounted for around 40-45% of the cases. Now, more numbers are coming in from the commuter areas of New Jersey and Connecticut. If you draw a 40 mile radius around Manhattan, you're going to see around 45-50% of the nationwide cases. I'm not sure how many millions of people we're talking about -- perhaps 19 million? -- I'm not including the entire New York metro area which I guess stretches all the way into Pennsylvania. This is a population around the size of SoCal (LA, Orange, Ventura, Riverside and San Bernadino counties) which has just over 3,000 cases. With the way people have been buckling down throughout almost the rest of the country, I would be surprised if any other area -- other than New Orleans and Summit and Blaine Counties -- to approach NYC's rate.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Also, Seattle is the place where it manifested itself first in this country and they presumably took measures earlier than anyone else. Maybe Walter or SU can mention something about where the trends are up there. It seems like the rest of the country is probably a week or two behind them -- aside from the NYC metro area.

[Donuthole]

Also, Seattle is the place where it manifested itself first in this country and they presumably took measures earlier than anyone else. Maybe Walter or SU can mention something about where the trends are up there. It seems like the rest of the country is probably a week or two behind them -- aside from the NYC metro area.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-choir-decided-to-go-ahead-with-rehearsal-now-dozens-of-members-have-covid-19-and-two-are-dead/ar-BB11Tjim?ocid=sf

[Northwestcoug]

I'm curious. List one or more of these fundamental changes. TIA.

Humility for one.

We've been spared huge epidemics for an unusually long time. Polio was just 2 generations ago. We are not as scientifically advanced as we think we are. This will happen again. The environmental damage by humanity will also make it worse.

The US is inextricably linked to the rest of the world. We depend on them as much as they depend on us. We are a good nation with great ideals, many of which remain out of reach. We would do well to be humble enough to learn from other countries. Hopefully isolationism as a political philosophy is dead. RIP.

Human society in general is fragile. Most developed countries are not too far removed from major civil unrest. Any calamity that is prolonged can destabilize any one of them. At least in the US, let's stop playing games and realize that strengthening the safety net for the underprivileged is not socialism, and can help strengthen our country. In other words, medicare for all FTW.

[jay santos]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-...11Tjim?ocid=sf

Holy crap. What does that say about how it's transmitted? People are contagious within minutes of being exposed?

In five years when we have all the data, this will make a great movie. Crazy right now. Based on this anecdote, I'm surprised 75% of the entire world doesn't already have it.

I wonder if there are strands that become much higher contagious than other strands.

[Walter Sobchak]

Humility for one.

Ha! Good one.

At least in the US, let's stop playing games and realize that strengthening the safety net for the underprivileged is not socialism, and can help strengthen our country. In other words, medicare for all FTW.

Ha! Another good one.

Maybe JL will change my mind, but nothing will fundamentally change... this will be but a small bump in the road. There will be a shadow of fear that lingers for maybe a year and there will be small resurgence of FUD during flu season next year. But then it will be largely forgotten.