At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[frank ryan]

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I'm tracking the daily new US cases here. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries Yesterday 4,824 was down from previous day 5,594 but today's number is blowing it away. Right now says 8,149. But an hour ago it said 14K. Was there a restatement of new cases? I'm still utterly confused by India's numbers. Total cases 396 and new cases bouncing around 50-80 with no exponential growth trend.

With India on China’s doorstep how do we explain that? Russia also seems to have not hit very hard.

[myboynoah]

Reports are that Paul was still hanging out with his fellow senators at the Senate pool and lunchroom while awaiting results from his test

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Rand Paul can ESAD & then GFH.

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[Donuthole]

At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

Sorry, but pretty hard to not have Trump come up in this thread as he is the POTUS and his response has played into all of this. Not to mention his daily press conferences.

Sure. But if it’s going to devolve into an election discussion, take it over there.

[myboynoah]

Rand Paul can ESAD & then GFH.

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[Uncle Ted]

With India on China’s doorstep how do we explain that?

China (Wuhan) hasn't had new cases for days. It's all good there.

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[myboynoah]

Excellent interview here with a real expert on viruses and pandemics.

The doctor who helped defeat smallpox explains what’s coming

When will we be able to leave the house and go back to work?

I have a very good retrospect-oscope, but what's needed right now as a prospecto-scope. If this were a tennis match, I would say advantage virus right now. But there's really good news from South Korea—they had less than 100 cases today. China had more cases imported than it had from continuous transmission from Wuhan today. The Chinese model will be very hard for us to follow. We're not going to be locking people up in their apartments, boarding them up. But the South Korea model is one that we could follow. Unfortunately, it requires doing the proportionate number of tests that they did—they did well over a quarter of a million tests. In fact, by the time South Korea had done 200,000 tests, we had probably done less than 1,000.

Now that we've missed the opportunity for early testing, is it too late for testing to make a difference?

Absolutely not. Tests would make a measurable difference. We should be doing a stochastic process random probability sample of the country to find out where the hell the virus really is. Because we don't know. Maybe Mississippi is reporting no cases because it's not looking. How would they know? Zimbabwe reports zero cases because they don't have testing capability, not because they don't have the virus. We need something that looks like a home pregnancy test, that you can do at home.

Why don't we just test everyone?

[myboynoah]

The spiking daily numbers in the U.S. are a product of finally testing in earnest. It is out there and we are finding it. Korea displayed the same pattern. But Korea started aggressive testing with it's first case.

As for India, it could be that it is there but India has an insufficient testig protocol and healthcare system to capture the scale of the infection. How many tests have been done in India? Or, hopefully, climate has an effect on countering the spread.

The good news is that if we are effectively social distancing and other measures, then that will stem the tide of new infections and the number of new infecetions captured through testing will start to go down in 7-10 days. I'd have to go back and look at the Korea data, but I think that tracks with what happened here.

This graphically tracks Korea's daily new cases.

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That's difficult to see. Here is a link to the graph.

As you can see, new cases started spiking around Feb 21 and finally declined around Mar 12. That's about 3 weeks. My concern for the U.S. is that it is late to the game on testing and social distancing, so we'll likely see crazy daily numbers for another 2-3 weeks until we get a fuller picture of the spread and social distancing measures take hold. We will likely eclipse China's numbers.

[Northwestcoug]

New York now makes up 5% of the world's COVID-19 cases. That is astonishing. This doesn't bode well at all.

[myboynoah]

Scary

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[myboynoah]

Rand Paul can ESAD & then GFH.

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Just such an ass.

[smokymountainrain]

At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

The Johns Hopkins website shows us doubling the number of cases every 3 days. Half of the reported cases are in New York. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Ugh. The cases are not doubling. They have doubled the number of tests. Actual cases could be stagnant, they could be doubling or they could be quadrupling. when we see those cases stats increasing, they are only increasing as tests increase.


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[smokymountainrain]

At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

I think if we had it to do over again we would have shut down international travel much earlier, ramped up testing much faster, and then chased down every positive to quarantine all of their contacts and try to find the source. When community spread was found mass testing should have been focused in that area.
That's my understanding of the S. Korea model. Had that happened, a mass shutdown of the economy may not have been necessary.

I'm still trying to wrap my head around this shutdown being the right thing. But as we see the numbers explode in NY and word that this thing is causing permanent lung damage to younger patients it's hard to argue that it isn't. We'll just have to hope the government backstop for businesses works.

How the hell do they know if lung damage is permanent? This thing has been in the u.s. for three gd months.


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[Jeff Lebowski]

How the hell do they know if lung damage is permanent? This thing has been in the u.s. for three gd months.

Agreed. Way too early to make that claim.

[myboynoah]

How the hell do they know if lung damage is permanent? This thing has been in the u.s. for three gd months.


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They base that on some cases from China(?) or elsewhere. It is not universal, just that it can happen.

COVID-19: Recovered patients have partially reduced lung function

All of this is obviously preliminary, but should be concerning.

[CardiacCoug]

How the hell do they know if lung damage is permanent? This thing has been in the u.s. for three gd months.


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For the patients who end up in the ICU they are all falling into the category of diffuse lung disease known as ARDS.

ARDS is a condition associated with permanent damage to the lungs.