At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[myboynoah]

Looks like Utah is on the naughty list.

Coronavirus hospitalizations rise sharply in several states following Memorial Day

In Utah, new covid-19 cases are on the rise and as a result, so are hospitalizations. Utah’s coronavirus task force tweeted that the state has seen a spike in covid-19 cases, and it wasn’t because of testing or a lone outbreak.

Similar to other regions, Utah’s numbers have climbed steadily since Memorial Day, as the average number of new cases has increased 12 of the past 15 days. Over that two-week span, Utah has reported a 42 percent increase in hospitalizations and as of Tuesday afternoon, 230 patients were hospitalized with covid-19.

[Jarid in Cedar]

I have been thinking about the concept of herd immunity lately, and come to the conclusion that it is a Holy Grail and a bit of a myth. You will be hard pressed to find one disease where herd immunity has been achieved by natural spread. We have herd immunity for measles, polio, etc, but that was primarily achieved by vaccine. Even that has limits as herd immunity had not been achieved for influenza despite centuries of people getting sick and decades of vaccine use.

Without a vaccine, I don't see that it will be achieved even if there is widespread dissemination of the virus.

[SeattleUte]

I have been thinking about the concept of herd immunity lately, and come to the conclusion that it is a Holy Grail and a bit of a myth. You will be hard pressed to find one disease where herd immunity has been achieved by natural spread. We have herd immunity for measles, polio, etc, but that was primarily achieved by vaccine. Even that has limits as herd immunity had not been achieved for influenza despite centuries of people getting sick and decades of vaccine use.

Without a vaccine, I don't see that it will be achieved even if there is widespread dissemination of the virus.

Also, while this is very contagious, it doesn't seem as contagious as the original premises for herd immunity assumed. That's both good and bad. These antibody tests invariably show that the spread is way more limited than the 60 percent or whatever required to attain herd immunity.

The original nightmare scenarios assumed much higher infection rate and and death rate among the infected.

[myboynoah]

I have been thinking about the concept of herd immunity lately, and come to the conclusion that it is a Holy Grail and a bit of a myth. You will be hard pressed to find one disease where herd immunity has been achieved by natural spread. We have herd immunity for measles, polio, etc, but that was primarily achieved by vaccine. Even that has limits as herd immunity had not been achieved for influenza despite centuries of people getting sick and decades of vaccine use.

Without a vaccine, I don't see that it will be achieved even if there is widespread dissemination of the virus.

Yep.

[Northwestcoug]

I have been thinking about the concept of herd immunity lately, and come to the conclusion that it is a Holy Grail and a bit of a myth. You will be hard pressed to find one disease where herd immunity has been achieved by natural spread. We have herd immunity for measles, polio, etc, but that was primarily achieved by vaccine. Even that has limits as herd immunity had not been achieved for influenza despite centuries of people getting sick and decades of vaccine use.

Without a vaccine, I don't see that it will be achieved even if there is widespread dissemination of the virus.

That is a good point. I think the people who were hoping for herd immunity in good faith realized that a workable vaccine is still at least months away, and that possibly the virus had spread a lot more than all the available serologic studies found. They were hoping that a second wave wouldn't be as bad.

History is against us acquiring immunity to pathogens without vaccines. For COVID-19, it's likely vaccine or bust for us.

[Bo Diddley]

That is a good point. I think the people who were hoping for herd immunity in good faith realized that a workable vaccine is still at least months away, and that possibly the virus had spread a lot more than all the available serologic studies found. They were hoping that a second wave wouldn't be as bad.

History is against us acquiring immunity to pathogens without vaccines. For COVID-19, it's likely vaccine or bust for us.

So if no vaccine comes, are we stuck with dealing with this like we do the common cold, but a quite a bit deadlier to vulnerable people?

[SeattleUte]

So if no vaccine comes, are we stuck with dealing with this like we do the common cold, but a quite a bit deadlier to vulnerable people?

There will be a vaccine. The fact that people recover means there's an immune response that can be stimulated by a vaccine. Researchers are already immunizing monkeys and people. They just need to test larger groups.

The question is when. I'm always an optimist, so I'm hoping for September. This has to be what those who favored the shutdown in good faith have been hoping for. I'm hoping for their (to some extdent) vindication.

[SeattleUte]

So if no vaccine comes, are we stuck with dealing with this like we do the common cold, but a quite a bit deadlier to vulnerable people?

But until a vaccine comes, this is true. And we need to be realistic that as economies by necessity struggle to recover, there will be some flare ups of infections. The increases now should have been expected. Hopefully now we can respond in more thoughtful, surgical ways.

[Northwestcoug]

So if no vaccine comes, are we stuck with dealing with this like we do the common cold, but a quite a bit deadlier to vulnerable people?

If I were a betting man, I'd say yes. But if the virus doesn't mutate as much as the common cold (fingers crossed), with each wave hopefully more people are immune, which means there are less vectors to spread the virus. So hopefully each successive wave will be less deadly. But I agree with JIC, if herd immunity is going to be a thing at all with COVID, it's not likely to happen without the vaccine.

[Northwestcoug]

There will be a vaccine. The fact that people recover means there's an immune response that can be stimulated by a vaccine. Researchers are already immunizing monkeys and people. They just need to test larger groups.

The question is when. I'm always an optimist, so I'm hoping for September. This has to be what those who favored the shutdown in good faith have been hoping for. I'm hoping for their (to some extdent) vindication.

A group at my residency hospital is beginning human trials.

[Northwestcoug]

There will be a vaccine. The fact that people recover means there's an immune response that can be stimulated by a vaccine. Researchers are already immunizing monkeys and people. They just need to test larger groups.

The question is when. I'm always an optimist, so I'm hoping for September. This has to be what those who favored the shutdown in good faith have been hoping for. I'm hoping for their (to some extdent) vindication.

A group at my residency hospital is beginning human trials.

[Pelado]

https://idahobusinessreview.com/2020/06/10/boise-assessing-covid-19-outbreak-through-sewage-testing/

The city of Boise is partnering with Massachusetts-based company Biobot to track the spread of COVID-19 using data from sewage samples. The data could reveal if safety measures are slowing the spread of the virus and could be used to guide decision-making on reopening the economy.

Viruses pass through human waste, down toilets and into the sewer system. Employees who monitor Boise’s wastewater are now regularly collecting wastewater samples, sending them to Biobot to be tested for the prevalence of the virus. These samples will include waste from people who may be infected, but aren’t showing symptoms.

[falafel]

A group at my residency hospital is beginning human trials.

Do the subjects know that?

[Bo Diddley]

There will be a vaccine. The fact that people recover means there's an immune response that can be stimulated by a vaccine. Researchers are already immunizing monkeys and people. They just need to test larger groups.

The question is when. I'm always an optimist, so I'm hoping for September. This has to be what those who favored the shutdown in good faith have been hoping for. I'm hoping for their (to some extdent) vindication.

That's what I thought at point as well. Turns out I was wrong. It was all about keeping our medical facilities from being overwhelmed.

[myboynoah]

That's what I thought at point as well. Turns out I was wrong. It was all about keeping our medical facilities from being overwhelmed.

It was a number of things: stopping the exponential spread, preventing fatalities, not overwhelming the medical system, providing a respite in order to evaluate, prepare, and plan for how to proceed, etc.; all in hopes of getting to effective treatment and a vaccine as soon as possible.

Of course, there is hope that some form of herd immunity would form via those that have recovered from the virus, but that was never a given, as it is unclear how much immunity comes from having had the disease.

IMO, many places have "opened up" too soon and too aggressively, so it will likely be a slow significant burn in the U.S. until we get to effective treatment and/or a vaccine.